Far right consolidates lead in France

With less than a week before the European elections on June 9, a Le Monde poll shows the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) making further progress in France, while the governing coalition is slipping back, and the gap between it and the third-placed Socialist campaign narrowing. The poll was conducted from May 27 to 30 by the IPSOS institute, in partnership with the CEVIPOF center at Sciences Po, the Institut Montaigne, the Fondation Jean Jaurès and Le Monde.

Since March, the RN’s campaign, headed by Jordan Bardella, has gained two percentage points. It now stands at 33% of voting intentions among respondents certain to vote, with a margin of error of 1.2 points. Valérie Hayer, the lead candidate for President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition, followed the opposite trend, falling by one point in April and another in May, down to 16% of voting intentions (margin of error: one point).

Raphaël Glucksmann, the Socialists’s lead candidate, sees his lightning rise from March and April slow in this final stretch, progressing by only 0.5 percentage points in the last month. In the latest poll, 14.5 % of respondents who are certain of voting said they would select him inside the booth (margin of error: 0.9 points).

Far right’s cumulative score: 40%

A major takeaway from the survey is the far right’s cumulative score: If the 5% of voting intentions attributed to Eric Zemmour’s Reconquête! party, led in this election by Marion Maréchal, and the 1% obtained by each of Florian Philippot and François Asselineau are added to Bardella’s 33%, the far right’s total weight is of 40% of voters in our poll. The conservative Les Républicains party, whose campaign is led by François-Xavier Bellamy, came in at 7% of voting intentions (margin of error: 0.7 points), up by half a point since the previous poll, in April.

The cumulative score of all left-wing parties, meanwhile, stands at 32.5%. On that side of the spectrum, Glucksmann’s Socialist-backed list is comfortably first, followed by Manon Aubry for La France Insoumise (radical left), with 8% of voting intentions (margin of error: 0.7), up one point since April. Marie Toussaint, the lead candidate for the Greens, polled at 6% of voting intentions, down half a point. The Communists’ Léon Deffontaines is at 2%.

Since the start of the campaign, Glucksmann has been polling best on the left, benefiting in particular from former Macron voters. But the possibility of him overtaking Hayer, a source of concern in the presidential coalition, is not observable at this stage, with just a few days left before the election. It remains theoretically possible, however. Taking into account hesitant voters – those who could prefer another candidate to their current first choice – Hayer’s final score could be in a range between 14.5% and 17.5%, and Glucksmann’s between 12% and 16.5%.

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Source link : https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/06/03/eu-elections-poll-far-right-consolidates-lead-in-france_6673568_5.html

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Publish date : 2024-06-03 05:01:09

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