After the Cold War, Sweden began a process of disarmament. Russia’s attack on Ukraine brought about a paradigm shift. Now the government in Stockholm has some catching up to do.
Swedish soldiers have been training with NATO troops for years. The image shows recruits at the Aurora 23 exercise.
Johan Nilsson / TT News Agency / Reuters
Solidarity instead of neutrality: This is the new paradigm of Swedish defense policy. After Hungary’s President Tamás Sulyok signed the ratification of the country’s accession to NATO on Tuesday, thus removing the final hurdle to membership, Sweden officially joined the organization on March 7. Sweden will now be under the protection of the alliance. Meanwhile, strategically important territories in northeastern Europe will now be under NATO’s umbrella.
But what contribution can Sweden make against the Russian threat? And what state are the Swedish armed forces in?
After World War II, the country had the fourth largest air force in the world. During the Cold War, when the threat from the Soviet Union was felt as far away as Scandinavia, Sweden could have mobilized up to 850,000 soldiers. But when the Iron Curtain fell in 1991 and the conflict between East and West seemed to be subsiding, Sweden did what many Western countries did: It disarmed.
Bases were closed, compulsory military service was abolished and defense spending was radically cut. Even at the time, military experts were critical of this development. In 2012, when the commander-in-chief of the Swedish armed forces was asked how long the country could defend itself against a military attack, he answered: one week.
After the end of the Cold War, Sweden reduced military spending
Defense spending from 1986 to 2024 as a percentage of gross domestic product
2
Russian annexation of Crimea
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Russian attack on Ukraine
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Sweden began to invest more in its defense again. Compulsory military service was reintroduced in 2018, and defense spending has increased fivefold in the last five years. Today, Sweden can make a contribution to NATO in three areas in particular:
1. Geopolitical advantages in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic
Sweden brings strategic depth to NATO in north-eastern Europe. It connects the Arctic with the Baltic Sea and the Baltic Sea with the Atlantic. With the exception of Russia, all countries on the Baltic Sea belong to NATO. The Öresund strait between Copenhagen and Malmö is now completely controlled by NATO, as is the island of Gotland. Whoever controls Gotland has a strategic advantage in the Baltic Sea.
Should the conflict between NATO and Russia escalate on the eastern border, Sweden would be an important transit country for the transportation of armaments and troops. The U.S. could deliver reinforcements across the Atlantic to the port of Gothenburg, for instance. From there, weapons and troops would be transported by rail or water to Finland or the Baltic states. This is a relief for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as the Baltic states were previously only connected to the rest of the NATO states via a 65-kilometer border, the so-called Suwałki Gap.
In the event of war, Sweden could play an important role as a transit country
Sweden’s accession also allows NATO to expand its power in the Arctic. Seven of the eight countries that make up the Arctic Council – i.e. all except Russia – are now part of NATO. The melting ice masses conceal coveted raw materials and new, shorter sea routes. Because of this, military experts are already predicting an escalation of tensions in the polar region. Russia owns more than half of the Arctic coastline, and China, a potential Kremlin ally, has also expressed interest in the Arctic.
Around 15% of Sweden’s land lies within the Arctic Circle. This means that its armed forces have experience with Arctic conditions. This is important because warfare in subzero temperatures requires different equipment, from clothing to weapon systems. Soldiers have to be able to withstand the cold not only physically but also mentally.
2. Few troops, but submarines and fighter jets
The greatest weakness of the Swedish army is the size of its army. In the event of war, Sweden could mobilize around 60,000 soldiers. In comparison: In the smaller neighboring country of Finland, the figure would be 280,000. The country also urgently needs more soldiers, because it has to provide NATO with an entire brigade. A brigade is made up of 5,000 people. This is about the number of professional soldiers working in the Swedish armed forces today.
The Swedish Ministry of Defense has recognized the problem and wants to increase the number of troops to 100,000 by 2030. To achieve this goal, the annual number of recruits will be increased from 5,500 to 10,000.
But with Sweden’s accession, NATO will have access to a navy that is used to operating in the shallow Baltic Sea. In addition to corvettes, patrol vessels and minesweepers, Sweden also has four submarines. These are urgently needed, as neither Denmark, Finland nor the Baltic states are able to operate underwater. Although the U.S. has submarines, they are unusable in the shallows of the Baltic Sea.
Monitoring the seabed has also become more urgent outside times of war. Gas pipelines and a network of data cables run under the Baltic Sea. In the fall of 2022, the Nord Stream pipelines off the Danish island of Bornholm were blown up, and last October the Balticconnector gas pipeline, which runs in the Gulf of Finland, was damaged. In both cases, it is still unclear who sabotaged the infrastructure.
In addition to its navy, Sweden has one of the largest air forces in Europe, with around 100 fighter jets. This means that the NATO countries in north-eastern Europe are no longer dependent on the help of their alliance partners when it comes to monitoring regional airspace. This is a relief for the U.S. in particular, write two authors from the Wilson Center think tank in an analysis.
Of the Nordic countries, Sweden’s air force is the only one flying the Gripen fighter jet from Swedish manufacturer Saab. The other countries rely on American F-16 and F-35 fighter aircraft. Sweden has been taking part in NATO maneuvers for many years, but the United States in particular would welcome it if Sweden were to switch to U.S. jets. This would be a bitter blow for the Swedish arms industry, however – an industry which also benefits NATO.
3. A strong defense industry and rare earths
Sweden not only produces Gripen jets, but also the CV90 infantry fighting vehicle, air defense systems, rapid-fire weapons and ammunition. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how quickly ammunition can become scarce in Europe. Sweden has already ramped up production. In Karlskoga, the company Nammo produces 155-millimeter shells around the clock. This is the standard caliber of NATO artillery – and the ammunition that is most urgently needed in Ukraine at the moment.
In addition to production facilities, Sweden also has technological expertise and important raw materials. Among other things, it is home to the technology group Ericsson, a provider of 5G mobile networks, and Northvolt, one of the largest manufacturers of lithium batteries in Europe.
In January 2023, Sweden reported the largest discovery of rare earths in Europe to date. They are considered critical raw materials, the main supplier of which is China at the moment. They not only play a significant role in the fight against climate change, but are also important for the arms industry. An F-35 fighter jet, for instance, requires over 400 kilograms of these materials.
The almost complete dependence on China represents a high supply risk for NATO. Beijing has repeatedly threatened to use these materials as leverage. Thanks to its newest member Sweden, NATO will at least partially be able to free itself from this dependency.
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Source link : https://www.nzz.ch/english/swedens-accession-will-make-nato-bigger-but-what-contribution-is-the-scandinavian-country-making-ld.1820980
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Publish date : 2024-03-08 08:00:00
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