Humanitarian aid for Gaza is loaded on a platform next to a rescue vessel of the Spanish NGO Open Arms at the port of Larnaca, Cyprus on March 11. – Yiannis Kourtoglou/Reuters
What is the likelihood of Cyprus getting more deeply involved?
The island has previously been caught in the crossfire of regional conflicts, a reminder of its proximity to the volatile Middle East. In 2019, a suspected Russian-made missile exploded over the region of northern Cyprus. Cypriot officials believed the missile was linked to military operations in Syria, saying it landed less than 15 (24km) miles north of the capital Nicosia.
A scenario in which Israel uses Cypriot bases for its military forces, which Hezbollah warned against, would “effectively expand Gaza war into the European Union,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, Iran analyst and editor of Amwaj.media, wrote on X.
It would mean that an EU country is, for the first time, directly involved in an expanded Gaza war.
Some experts say that the prospect of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict breaking out into an all- out war is unlikely, however, as neither side want such an escalation.
“Hezbollah’s release of drone footage of sensitive positions inside Israel is meant as a deterrent to Israel,” Lina Khatib, associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN, referring to the 9-minute drone video released by Hezbollah on Tuesday, showing civilian and military locations in and around the Israeli city Haifa.
“It is normal for both Israel and Hezbollah to have military plans in place for handling a potential escalation. But as things stand, neither Israel nor Hezbollah benefits from all-out war,” Khatib said, adding that “Hezbollah knows that war with Israel would be devastating for Lebanon and that there is no popular appetite for such a scenario in the country.”
The Biden administration is also unlikely to let Israel fight a two-front war on its own, she said, adding that US involvement may pull in “other Iran-backed actors as well as the potential for Iran itself to be targeted.”
“This is a high cost that Iran wants to avoid paying,” she said. “The US also does not want to find itself in another Middle East quagmire, especially with presidential elections looming.”
CNN’s Sharon Braithwaite, Tamara Qiblawi, Mostafa Salem and Abbas Al Lawati contributed reporting.
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Publish date : 2024-06-21 01:47:00
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