One, if as expected, there is “co-habitation” between a Prime Minister belonging to the far-right (or far-left for that matter) and President Macron, then France will be too weak to drive EU’s foreign and security policy.
Two, if the far-right or the far-left wins, this may also bring France into direct confrontation with Brussels on EU membership obligations.
Three, it is well known that the Franco-German engine drives the EU. Indeed, the German Chancellor has already said that he hopes Le Pen’s party will not win in the elections. The Franco-German engine will sputter and may stop altogether.
Four, France’s commitment to the war in Ukraine may waver. Marine Le Pen has ruled out French troops in Ukraine and her priority will be funding her domestic agenda in France not military aid to Ukraine. Five, the far-left parties have taken a pro-Palestinian position on the Gaza issue that has made the French Jews and Israel very worried.
Finally, we may also be looking at a France and consequently, an EU which is anti-immigration, economically more protectionist and inward-looking. Six, the combination of a possible Trump in the White House and a geopolitically weak EU cannot but be welcomed by powers like China and Russia.
The writer is a former Indian Ambassador to France and is currently Dean/Professor at O P Jindal Global University. Views are personal
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First uploaded on: 28-06-2024 at 08:36 IST
Source link : https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/what-emmanuel-macrons-snap-polls-could-mean-for-france-and-europe-9419443/lite/
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Publish date : 2024-06-28 03:06:13
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