European Union statistics bureau Eurostat predicts 868,833 people will be calling Luxembourg their home by 2050, a huge leap from today’s 672,000.
Luxembourg today has the fastest population growth rate in the EU, fuelled by immigration tied to strong economic growth, notably in finance and IT. Close to half the population is made up of immigrants.
The 29% population growth forecast for Luxembourg in the next 26 years is even more remarkable in comparison to the EU’s overall predicted 0.6% growth.
The bloc’s population is expected to grow from 450.37 million people in 2024 to 450.64 million in 2050 across all 27 current member states – just 274,223 extra people across the whole EU.
One million nation?
The Eurostat figures differ from those released in May by Luxembourg’s own statistics office, Statec, which forecast the Grand Duchy breaking the one million mark by 2050.
It was noted at the time that all previous estimates of Luxembourg’s future population have fallen significantly short. For example, then-prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker in 2002 estimated that the country could top 520,000 by 2020. It actually turned out to be 626,000.
“With the exception of population forecasts made in 1974 [at the height of the steel crisis] all projections for population growth since the 1950s have been underestimated – and often to a considerable extent,” the Statec report noted this spring.
Statec forecast population growth under hypothetical annual GDP growth rates of 0%, 1.5%, 3% and 4.5%, coming up with close to, or over, a million inhabitants in each scenario.
Eurostat and Statec use slightly different methodologies for the complicated task of divining future populations that must take into account factors including birth and migration rates, life expectancy, GDP growth and more.
The Eurostat report predicts that populations will decline between 2024 and 2050 in more than half of the EU’s member states – Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Croatia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia.
Also read:The Grander Duchy: a nation of 1 million by 2050?
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Publish date : 2024-09-26 07:21:00
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