(Image: ICCT)
The weight reference is also being recalculated: due to the increasing proportion of electric cars, the basis for calculating the unladen weight has risen to 1609.6 kg. Until now, heavy vehicles were synonymous with high CO₂ emissions. This is changing with electric cars, which weigh a lot but have no CO₂ emissions in the WLTP. In the European Union’s CO₂ mechanism, this in turn means that the manufacturers with the heaviest cars no longer receive the laxest, but the strictest specifications. The slope of the limit value line for the weight reference will therefore be negative from 2025.
Bild 1 von 3
Nach Zahlen von Dataforce fürs erste Halbjahr 2024 erreicht Volkswagen einen tatsächlichen CO₂-Flottenwert von 123 statt der erforderlichen 121 Gramm pro Kilometer. Eine Differenz, die sich durch etwas sparsamere Pkw mit Verbrennungsmotor oder ein paar mehr Elektroautos ausgleichen lässt. 2025 sind die Anforderungen größer: Für Volkswagen sind im Durchschnitt nur noch 94 g CO₂/km erlaubt. (Bild:
VW
)
Devaluation of plug-in hybrid cars
One example of this is Mercedes: instead of 138 g CO₂/km in 2024, the current Dataforce forecast is that it must not exceed 88 g CO₂/km in 2025. The Group with the Mercedes and Smart brands must therefore significantly reduce its emissions from 108 g CO₂/km in the current year. At Renault and Stellantis, where smaller and lighter cars are being put on the road overall, the target will be reduced from 113 g CO₂/km this year to 97 g CO₂/km next year.
Plug-in hybrids will be among the losers by 2030: With the 2026 model year, the method for calculating CO₂ emissions will become stricter, followed by further tightening in 2027. The electric range will have to increase considerably to achieve the same CO₂ values as before. As a result, it will become increasingly attractive for the car industry to put pure electric cars on the road right away.
(Image: ICCT)
Another new aspect is that plug-in hybrid cars will be assessed more and more strictly by 2030. They must have a significantly higher electric range in order to achieve the previous CO₂ result. Or manufacturers will have to accept that plug-in hybrids are less valuable in the internal mix due to the stricter Utility Factor (UF).
What will this lead to in 2025?
There is a from-to spectrum of estimates. Schmidt Automotive Research, for example, assumes that a share of electric cars of a good 22 percent for 2025 instead of around 16 percent in the current year will be sufficient to achieve the CO₂ targets. At the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the assumptions are less favorable. In a study that will be published in the coming weeks, ICCT analysts assume that around 28 percent electric cars will be the minimum level. The ICCT has based this on rather pessimistic framework conditions. For example, no further reduction in cars with combustion engines is to be expected, and the proportion of plug-in hybrids would also be constant or declining.
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This article was originally published in
German.
It was translated with technical assistance and editorially reviewed before publication.
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Publish date : 2024-09-26 22:15:00
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