The markets are generally positive, even if the tensions in the Middle East, with Israeli troops entering Lebanon, they curb the propensity to risk. Wall Street closed slightly higher at new highs, but pared gains from intraday highs after comments from Fed chairman which has cooled expectations on upcoming rate cuts. In Asia, China is absent who is on holiday to celebrate the Golden Week, is the Japan to dominate the scene with a rebound after yesterday’s decline, supported by positive data. The European stock exchanges are seen opening slightly higher ahead of inflation data today which should inform the next rate cut in 2 weeks.
Powell: No rush to lower rates
Yesterday on Wall Street the S&P500 index closed up 0,4%, a new record, recording a +2% in a month and a +5,25% in the quarter, the fourth consecutive positive quarter, a streak not seen since 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0,04%, at 42.329,95 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0,38%, to 18.189,17. The energy (+500%), telecommunications (+0,83%) and healthcare (+0,79%) sectors stand out in the S&P 0,61 basket. The materials sector, with its -0,60%, is the worst of the market. Down the automotive stocks, Ford and GM, after the profit warning of Stellantis, Volkswagen and Aston Martin.
Yesterday the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said the US central bank he is in no hurry to lower rates of interest and provides two more cuts, for a total of 50 basis points, this year if the economy develops as expected. Powell, speaking at a National Association for Business Economics conference in Nashville, Tennessee, also said that recent revisions to data on economic growth, savings rates and personal income have eliminated some “downside risks” that the Fed has been focusing on. The Fed began a new round of monetary easing with a sharp 50 basis point rate cut earlier this month. Major economic reports due this week include monthly jobless claims and payrolls. Today at 15:45 p.m., on the agenda are the manufacturing PMI (expected 47; previous 47,9), at 16 p.m., manufacturing ISM (expected 00; previous 47,6) and construction spending, monthly (expected 47,2%; previous -0,2%).
Japan Rises: Tankan Report Shows Optimism
China is absent, on holiday all week, it is the Japan to dominate the scene with a good rise in the wake of the data released overnight, rebounding after yesterday’s slump in the wake of the uncertainty linked to the arrival of the new Prime Minister. The Nikkei index gained about 2% at the end of the session. The yen weakened against the dollar to 144,2, from 143,6 at the close.
From Tankan Report The Bank of Japan’s survey found overnight that Japan’s big companies are more optimistic than expected, and the central bank may continue to hike interest rates, with the second tightening likely before the end of the year or in early 2025. The confidence index of Japan’s top manufacturers held steady at 13 in September, according to the quarterly Tankan report. The gauge for major non-manufacturing producers rose to 34, boosted by tourism. Economists had expected a decline to 12 for manufacturers and 32 for the service sector. The Tankan survey is one of the key data released before members of the central bank’s board decide on policy for the coming month. 31 October. Also tonight in Japan, the Ministry of Labor indicated that the job market Japan remained healthy in August. The country’s unemployment rate fell to 2,5 percent from 2,7 percent the previous month, while the job-applicant ratio fell to 1,23 from 1,24, meaning there were 123 jobs available for every 100 applicants.
Stock markets in Hong Kong and South Korea are also closed for holidays. The TAIEX index Taiwan The S&P ASX 0,7 index in Sydney is up 0,5%, down 200%.
Oil and gold little changed after highs, eyes on Middle East
As regards raw materials, the oil prices were steady in early trading today, as the prospect of additional supply amid sluggish global demand growth offset concerns that escalating conflict in the Middle East could disrupt exports to the key producing region. OPEC+, which groups OPEC members and allies such as Russia, is expected to increase production by 180.000 barrels a day in December. Brent crude futures rose 0,11% to $71,78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0,07% to $68,22 a barrel. Spot gold rose 0,11% to $2.637,56 an ounce, not far from the record high of $2.685,42 hit last Thursday. Gold rose 13% between July and September, its best quarterly performance in more than four years.
European stocks seen rising. Eyes on inflation and Germany
European stocks expected to open higher, EuroStoxx50 index futures up 0,2%.
Il German Government is poised to cut its growth forecast for Europe’s largest economy and now expects no expansion this year, it wrote Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter and adding that Berlin would be ready to lower its growth forecast for 2024 to – in the best case scenario – stagnation, down from the 0,3% previously expected.
The following will be published today European inflation data and expectations are for a decline, which will reinforce estimates that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates later this month. Already this week, September inflation in Germany came in weaker than expected, at 1,8% on an annual basis, the lowest since 2021. Inflation is also slowing in France, Italy and Spain, and markets have started to fully price in a rate cut in october after the president yesterday Christine Lagarde He stated that this trend will be taken into consideration in the next political meeting, which will be held on 17 October.
Enel. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, would have met the CEO of Enel Flavio Cattaneo before the institutional meeting at Palazzo Chigi with Giorgia Meloni, according to the MessengerThe meeting focused on BlackRock’s interest in decommissioned power plant sites to convert into AI data centers.
Iveco, Leonardo. According to Il Fatto, Exor, the Agnelli family’s holding company, would ask for at least 1 billion euros to sell Leonardo its subsidiary Iveco Defence Vehicles, whose production the defence group would like to integrate with that of Oto Melara. Leonardo aims to make specific mergers and acquisitions on advanced technologies, such as quantum technologies and AI, both for the infrastructure and services sectors, manager Massimo Comparini told Il Sole 24 ore.
Brunello Cucinelli enters the Ftse Mib index, among the Italian companies listed on Piazza Affari with the highest capitalization.
Snam, could return to the bond market before the end of the year, thus anticipating part of the funding planned for 2025, as reported by MF-Milan Finance.
Eyes still on stellantis after it lost 15% yesterday after the company lowered its 2024 earnings guidance to reflect more aggressive measures needed to address performance issues in North America and deteriorating global European auto sector dynamics.
Flurry of ratings today
Jfferies raises target price of bpm, bper, intesa, buy. Moncler: HSBC raises target from 65 to 75 euros, remains buy. Prysmian: Jefferies raises target from 73 to 78 euros, buy. stellantis: a long series of brokers drastically cut the target price this morning in light of Monday’s warning, sell.
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Publish date : 2024-10-01 00:01:00
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