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When UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer meets Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday for their first formal meeting to discuss resetting the EU-UK relationship, he will have competition for the attention of the European Commission president.
On the same day von der Leyen will also meet Salome Zourabichvili, the president of the former Soviet republic of Georgia, which is a candidate to join the EU and as such is arguably more vital to the bloc’s future than its recalcitrant neighbour across the English Channel.
While Georgia is looking to embrace future EU membership, Starmer has explicitly ruled out rejoining the single market and customs union. That position has left diplomats and analysts warning of the legal limits of any EU-UK reset and future political clashes over fishing rights, energy trading and youth mobility.
“It will simply be the beginning of the conversation,” her spokesman said on Monday, in an effort to moderate expectations.
“We are open to strengthening EU-UK relations,” added an EU diplomat. “But the red lines remain. The UK wants to stay outside the single market and the customs union. The ball is in the UK’s court. What do they really want?”
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK Cabinet Office minister with responsibility for the negotiations, was in Brussels on Monday laying the groundwork for the leaders’ meeting.
He met Maroš Šefčovič, who will keep the Brexit brief in the European Commission for a second term, providing much-needed continuity. The Slovak commissioner negotiated the Windsor framework that ended the bitter post-Brexit feud over trading arrangements with Northern Ireland.
But analysts say old arguments over energy trading and fishing rights are a potential stumbling block in the coming negotiations because of a “tripwire” clause in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which explicitly links the two issues.
Under the TCA the transitional arrangements for electricity trading with the EU — which benefit the UK — expire in June 2026 at the same time as a transitional deal on fishing rights, which are politically sensitive for coastal EU member states.
“This linkage seems to have been forgotten by some people, but there is a real risk that a row over fishing rights comes in and torpedoes all the good will,” said Sam Lowe, UK and EU trade policy adviser at consultancy Flint Global.
In a sign of the challenges ahead, France told fellow member states in July that any broader reset with the UK required the same level of fishing access as at present. Two diplomats confirmed that most coastal states, from Spain to Sweden, were behind Paris.
The UK energy industry has urged the government not to allow a row over fish to inhibit the ability of both sides to trade green energy generated by wind farms in the North Sea.
Adam Berman, director of policy at industry lobbyist Energy UK, said the fish-energy linkage was “deeply unhelpful”.
“This is a cliff-edge and we need to get ahead of that. The government must approach these issues sooner rather than later because this is not an issue that can be resolved at the eleventh hour,” he warned.
Differences have also already emerged over a “youth mobility deal” to enable young people to travel and work in the EU and UK. Starmer’s government has repeatedly rejected the EU’s initial ideas for an agreement, saying they are too close to the free movement of people ended by Brexit.
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Despite efforts by EU diplomats to soften the rhetoric around youth mobility ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, EU diplomats briefed on internal discussions say only minor tweaks are expected to the original EU negotiating mandate to make it more palatable to the UK before it is agreed before the end of the year.
“The core idea behind the scheme will remain but some parameters might be [changed to be] slightly in favour of the UK,” said one. “It won’t be pared back a lot,” predicted a second EU diplomat.
The UK has said that it wants a deal to ease restrictions on touring artists, but the EU side has ruled this out, according to internal documents seen by the Financial Times, because it would require changes to customs and road haulage rules that go beyond the UK’s own red lines.
UK ministers maintain “landing zones can be found” on areas of contention, building on the momentum of a summer of summits and bilateral visits to EU capitals by Starmer.
Member state ambassadors made clear in a meeting on Monday that any negotiations with UK must be agreed by them, according to two people briefed on the discussions. They also emphasised the importance of a youth mobility deal, suggesting Von der Leyen would raise it in the talks.
One early focus will be on a new security pact and improved exchanges between police and security services that could also pave the way to deeper ties in areas such as defence.
However, there is also a debate in Brussels about how to integrate British companies in the EU’s rearmament push as part of any security pact, with divisions between large member states on whether to widen access for the UK.
France insists that the EU should focus on investing in its own companies. But Andrius Kubilius, the new defence commissioner, told the FT that Britain “is part of Europe”.
Additional reporting by Daria Mosolova in Brussels
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Publish date : 2024-09-30 21:00:00
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