The eastern Mediterranean region, in particular Greece, Cyprus and western Türkiye, will experience a significant intrusion of Saharan dust over the next few days, increasing in intensity on 13-14 June, with major implications for air quality in the region, according to forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (*CAMS). This is the latest in a number of dust intrusions in the region, the most recent of which was a dust transport across Greece, southeast Europe, and the eastern Mediterranean on 3-7 June.
The CAMS forecasts show a significant episode of dust transport moving across the Mediterranean, crossing southern Italy and Sicily on 11 June to reach Greece, southern Bulgaria and the Balkans, Cyprus, and western Türkiye. The dust level is forecast to intensify towards the end of the week (14-14 June) with PM10 levels in the 150-200 µg/m3 range across Greece and western Türkiye, well in excess of the 24-hour mean exposure threshold of 50 µg/m3 set in European Union guidelines for this kind of pollutant.
Daily maximum dust concentration at the surface from the CAMS regional ensemble forecast initialized on 11 June at 00 UTC and valid for (l-r) 11-14 June. Source CAMS
“The transport of Saharan dust across the Mediterranean to Europe is not unusual. Observations are showing an increase in the intensity and frequency of these events for some parts of Europe in recent years, highlighting the relevance of continued monitoring of our atmosphere to understand how air quality could change in relation to these episodes,” said CAMS Senior Scientist Mark Parrington.
PM10 forecast plume for Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece, initialized on 11 June at 00 UTC. The shading indicates the thresholds of the air quality index defined by the EEA. Source: CAMS
The intensity and relatively high number of Saharan dust intrusions in recent months has raised questions about the possibility that these are related to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. The episode forecast for this week follows on from an earlier dust transport that reached the eastern Mediterranean in the first week of June, at the same time that a second dust transport travelled across the Iberian Peninsula and southern France (see above). These episodes in June are the latest of numerous cases which have already occurred in 2024 for the Mediterranean region and southeastern Europe in particular.
Daily maximum dust concentration at the surface from the CAMS regional ensemble forecast initialized on 6 June at 00 UTC and valid for (l-r) 6-10 June. Source CAMS
National authorities in some of the most affected countries, in particular Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus, are closely monitoring the situation. These countries are currently collaborating with CAMS under the National Collaboration Programme to further increase the accuracy and reliability of dust forecasts. The CAMS NCP programme, which runs until 2027, supports EU Member States in extracting the maximum benefit from CAMS products and services in meeting their air quality goals.
Vassilis Amiridis, Research Director of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) of Greece said that NOA had been tracking episodes of Saharan dust intrusion into Greece, to inform the population about their severity and their potential impact on air quality. “CAMS data has been fundamental in tracking the most recent long-range dust transportation with accuracy, helping us prepare for its potential negative impacts. NOA is supported by the CAMS NCP to develop and provide downscaled forecasts at 2km resolution using CAMS and local data from ground-based remote sensors in Greece,” he said.
CAMS NCP monitoring activity in Greece: The lidar of the PANGEA observatory at the remote island of Antikythera is used for monitoring purposes. CAMS performance is in very good agreement with reference dust concentration profiles.
“As more Saharan dust episodes are affecting Bulgaria, we are paying particular attention to these events,” said Elena Hristova, Head of Division at National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) in Bulgaria. “The particular information on their intensity and behaviour is essential for raising awareness among the population about its health implications and for the planning in key sectors such energy production. Therefore, NIMH, as part of the CAMS NCP, provides in operational mode dust-related forecasts over a wider area covering the Balkans and Bulgaria using data from regional and global CAMS models,” she said.
Dust concentration (µg/m3) at surface level (left for Balkans, right for Bulgaria) forecast by CAMS-ENS for 13 and 14.06.2024 00 UTC.
Silas Michaelides, Chief Operating Manager at the ERATOSTHENES Centre of Excellence in Cyprus expressed concern about the increased frequency of the dust intrusions. “An increase in intensity and frequency in the occurrence of long-range Saharan dust transport episodes is a concern that transcends national borders, making international scientific cooperation, and supra national initiatives such as Copernicus, a necessity to further develop our understanding of the earth system,” he said.
A new tool from CAMS enables interested parties to receive advance notification of levels of dust and other pollutants in their area. Launched in February 2024, the CAMS Aerosol Alerts provide daily aerosol alerts based on aerosol optical depth and particulate matter observations. Users can also sign up to receive customised alerts covering geographical areas and aerosol species of interest, such as Saharan dust, for example. The system triggers three levels of alert – high, very high and extreme – when certain pre-determined thresholds are exceeded.
CAMS Aerosol Alerts dust forecast for 03:00 on 13 June. Source CAMS
CAMS monitors all stages of dust transportation from the Sahara Desert and offers 24/7 air quality data and forecasts tracking long-range dust transportation, both in Europe and globally. The near-real-time data and tools provided are free-to-use and serve as a tool to aid citizens, businesses, and policymakers in making informed decisions.
*CAMS is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with funding from the European Commission.
Source link : http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/saharan-dust-transport-impact-air-quality-eastern-mediterranean
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Publish date : 2024-06-13 07:00:00
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