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Non-EU work-related migration grew strongly between 2021 and 2023 but fell sharply in the first half of 2024
Non-EU citizens’ demand for work visas far surpassed its pre-pandemic levels following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. For example, in 2023, 312,600 work visas were granted to non-EU citizen main applicants (excluding frontier workers), compared to 137,000 in 2019 (Figure 4). Almost all of the growth in overall work visa grants took place between 2022 and 2023, although different visa routes have seen different trends in recent years.
The Skilled Worker route, the largest single work visa category, saw the sharpest growth—almost 200,000 visas were granted (to main applicants) in 2023, more than three times the number granted in 2021. In the first half of 2024, these figures fell sharply, driven by a reduction in health and care visa grants. Between January and June 2024, 15,200 Skilled Worker visas were granted to healthcare workers, compared to 72,000 over the same period in 2023. However, visa sponsorship in the health sector still remained well above pre-Brexit and pre-pandemic levels in the first six months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2019.
Figure 4
The number of non-EU citizens receiving visas under the Seasonal Worker scheme – the only route designed to allow employers to sponsor migrant workers in low-wage work – rose markedly between 2019 and 2021, after which point visa grant numbers settled. A little over 30,000 visas were granted to non-EU migrants in 2023, far below the total annual cap in place for that year (57,000 places). In May 2024, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) extended the scheme until 2029 but said it expected the horticulture and poultry sectors to reduce its demand for migrant workers over this period. At the same time, it announced that the total cap for 2025 would be set at 45,000 places.
The number of young people moving to the UK under the Youth Mobility Scheme returned to roughly pre-pandemic levels in 2023—around 22,700 visas were granted, primarily to citizens of Australia (44%), New Zealand (24%) and Canada (12%). People arriving via this route can work in any occupation so will include people in a range of skilled and less-skilled positions. The European Union published a proposal to negotiate a YMS with the UK in early 2024, which was rejected by both the Conservative government at the time and the Labour opposition.
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The health sector accounted for over 60% of Skilled Worker visas in the year ending March 2024
The number of non-EU skilled employees receiving employer-sponsored work visas rose steadily from 2012 onwards. This coincided with falling unemployment as the UK economy recovered from the late 2000s financial crisis. Increases in 2018 and 2019 were facilitated by the government’s decision to exempt doctors and nurses from the 20,700 cap on these visas that had been introduced in 2011. Visa grants dropped sharply during the pandemic in 2020 but rebounded in 2021 and rose strongly in 2022 and 2023.
By the year ending March 2024, 64% of Skilled Worker visas went to occupations that were newly eligible for visas under the post-Brexit immigration system due to the lower skills threshold. In particular, 39% of visa grants were for care workers following their addition to the Skilled Worker route in February 2022 (Figure 5). Alongside care workers, nurses, senior care workers and doctors were the occupations receiving the most Skilled Worker visas in the year ending March 2024. In turn, the health and care industry was the largest recipient over this period, accounting for over 60% of grants. Health professions in the UK have relied heavily on migrant workers over the past decades, including both people on work visas and those on other immigration routes—although the overall reliance increased after the pandemic. For more information on the role of migration in the UK’s health and care sector, see the Migration Observatory briefing on Migration and the health and care workforce.
Figure 5
As noted earlier, the government introduced various measures to restrict work migration in early 2024. However, health and care roles were largely shielded from these changes. For example, they were exempted from the increase in the minimum salary threshold – from £26,200 to £38,700 – because their salaries are set according to nationally agreed pay scales. Instead, most health and care jobs are subject to a minimum salary of £29,000 (or £23,200 for care workers). As a result, the salary threshold increase will primarily affect jobs in the private sector. For a more detailed discussion, see the Migration Observatory commentary, How will new salary thresholds affect UK migration?
One policy change which could impact Skilled Worker visa grants to the public sector is the ban on visas for care workers’ partners and children. Data from early 2024 indicated that visa grants to health and care workers had fallen sharply, although at the time of writing, it remained uncertain whether this trend would continue. The decline coincided with a Home Office move to scrutinise applications in light of widespread reports of exploitation in the care sector, and does not necessarily result from the ban on care worker dependants. For more information, see the Migration Observatory commentary, The ban on care workers’ family members: what will be the impact?
After the health sector, the industries granted the highest number of Skilled Worker visas in the year ending March 2024 were professional services (6%), hospitality (5%) and IT (5%) (Figure 5). However, the share of visas going to different industries is likely to change during 2024 due to higher salary thresholds, which are expected to affect lower-paying industries such as hospitality most.
While there are no published data on the number of Skilled Worker visas granted in each occupation before the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system, it is possible to compare the number of skilled sponsored work visas—that is, both Skilled Worker and intra-company transfer visas—by industry. The number of skilled sponsored visa grants to the IT sector was relatively similar pre- and post-pandemic (Figure 6). By contrast, the hospitality industry received over 16 times more entry visas in 2023 than it did on average between 2010 and 2019 (9,300 compared to 575), driven primarily by visa grants to chefs (an occupation newly eligible under the post-Brexit immigration system).
Figure 6
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There is widespread qualitative evidence of migrant exploitation
Qualitative research has found that migrants in the UK can be vulnerable to exploitative practices, such as being given misleading information about the job, not receiving the minimum wage, or paying high recruitment fees (which can lead to debt bondage). The risks are exacerbated for work migrants who require sponsorship for the duration of their visa—sponsorship creates a power imbalance between a migrant and their employer because they are tied into their role unless they can find another sponsor. Risks are also more pronounced in jobs where pay is relatively low or workers are often isolated, which can make it more difficult to leave exploitative situations. As a result, visa holders such as migrant care workers, Seasonal Workers, and Overseas Domestic Workers are at particular risk of exploitation.
While it is not possible to quantify the scale of exploitation or abuse of the UK work visa system, qualitative evidence suggests it was a widespread issue in 2023. An ICIBI inspection of the social care sector, for example, found evidence that migrant care workers had been housed in inadequate accommodation and coerced by their employers into paying ‘large and unexpected costs’ related to their employment. A 2022 Home Office and DEFRA survey identified concerns among some seasonal workers, including complaints of poor-quality accommodation and mistreatment by managers.
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Higher shares of non-EU international students stayed on to work after their studies post Brexit
The number of international students receiving work visas to stay on in the UK after their studies fell sharply after 2012 when the ‘post-study work’ route was closed. After 2012, students who wanted to remain in the UK to work either needed to find an employer willing to sponsor them for a skilled work visa or needed to qualify for another type of work visa, for example, as an entrepreneur.
A rebranded post-study work visa known as the Graduate scheme was introduced in 2021 and has proved more popular than its predecessor—112,000 former students were granted one of these visas in 2023 (main applicants only) (Figure 7). Another 89,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first six months of 2024.
Figure 7
In previous years, the majority of international students have only stayed in the UK for a few years before emigrating again. Among non-EU migrants issued an initial study visa in 2008, when the previous post-study work regime was in place; for example, only 17% still held a valid visa seven years later, with around half of these former students granted a graduate visa. For more information, see the Migration Observatory briefing, Student Migration to the UK.
There is some evidence, however, that international students became more likely to remain in the UK after their studies in the first years of the post-Brexit immigration system. This is not just because of the Graduate visa but because more students were switching onto long-term work visa routes, including the Skilled Worker route, which provide a path to permanent residence in the UK (Figure 7, Other work visas). Data provided to the Migration Observatory through freedom of information requests show that more than half of all people who switched directly from study visas to Skilled Worker visas in the year ending June 2023 went into care work. See the Migration Observatory commentary, International students entering the UK labour market, for a further discussion of these trends.
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EU citizens’ demand for work visas has been low since the post-Brexit immigration system came into force
After free movement ended in January 2021, newly arriving EU citizens faced a more restrictive immigration system with higher costs and administrative obstacles. Many EU citizens currently working in the UK are in jobs that do not qualify for long-term work visas. Before the system was implemented, the Home Office estimated that the new rules might thus reduce long-term EU work migration by around 70% by restricting the number of jobs that are eligible for visas (see the Migration Observatory’s commentary, Calculating the Bill, for more details). There was also some evidence that employer sponsorship requirements would reduce migration among people who are, in principle, eligible, for example, due to costs and administrative barriers.
In 2023, the third year after free movement ended, 23,400 EU citizens received work visas (excluding dependants), making up only 7% of work visa grants (Figure 8). These are low numbers when considering that in 2019, even after EU work migration had already fallen substantially post-referendum, an estimated 79,000 EU citizens made up 45% of non-UK citizens immigrating for at least a year for work
Almost half of work visa grants to EU nationals in 2023 were for the Skilled Worker route. In contrast to non-EU migration over the same period, only a small proportion of work visas granted to EU citizens were for health and care jobs (5%). The total work visa figure also includes grants to people coming for short work-related trips and not necessarily relocating to the UK: 29% of work visas granted to EU citizens in 2023 were for temporary work categories, with Government Authorised Exchange (GAE) visas the most common temporary visa route (13%). GAE visas are for people coming to the UK for a short time for work experience, training or research.
Figure 8
The end of free movement brought various new costs for EU workers who are eligible for work visas. These costs include visa application fees and the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS). In July 2024, a skilled work visa holder coming to the UK with their partner could expect to incur fees of over £19,000 from entry to permanent settlement. See the Migration Observatory Q&A Immigration fees in the UK for more information.
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In the past, most non-EU citizens on work visas left the UK within 5 years, but this varies by specific visa type
Some migrants who come to the UK for work stay for short periods, while others stay long-term and receive permanent status (settlement) or UK citizenship. Temporary migration can have economic benefits, for example, because recently arrived migrants tend to have more positive impacts on public finances (see the Migration Observatory briefing on the Fiscal Impacts of Migration). On the other hand, it can also have negative impacts in communities by increasing population churn.
In the past, most non-EU work migrants have not settled permanently in the UK. By the end of 2023, for example, 38% of non-EU citizens who received work visas in 2018 still had permission to be in the UK (this includes both main applicants and dependants). However, this was a higher stay rate (after five years) than for any cohort arriving between 2004 and 2017 (Figure 9).
Much of the increase in stay rates over time for skilled sponsored workers can be explained by the relative number of visas granted to the specific routes which make up the category. People who arrive as Intra-company transfers, for example, are less likely to stay in the UK, partly because this visa does not provide a route to settlement. People who arrive on the Skilled Worker route, which does provide a route to settlement, by contrast, are more likely to stay—indeed, 75% of people who received a Skilled Worker visa in 2018 still had permission to be in the UK in 2023. The increase in Skilled Worker visa grants in 2022 and 2023 may thus increase the share of work visa migrants staying in the UK permanently. For more information on settlement, see the Migration Observatory briefing on Migrant settlement in the UK.
A majority of people with visas who received ‘high value’ work visas still had valid leave after five years. Note, however, that this visa category is small (see Figure 4).
Figure 9
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Indian citizens were the largest recipients of work visas in 2023, followed by Nigerian citizens
The top countries of origin receiving work visas in 2023 varied widely by visa type (Figure 10). Overall, Indian citizens received more main applicant work visas than any other nationality (22%), primarily because of their high take-up of Skilled Worker visas—indeed, over a quarter of Skilled Worker visa grants were to Indians, both in the health sector and in all other industries.
Citizens of Central Asian countries were more likely to participate in the Seasonal Workers scheme, while two-thirds of Youth Mobility visa grants were to citizens of Australia and New Zealand. People with US nationality received the largest numbers of ‘High Value’ visas in 2023; they predominantly arrived through the ‘High Potential Individual’ route, an unsponsored work visa for recent graduates of globally leading universities.
Figure 10
Evidence gaps and limitations
Despite significant improvements in data on work-related migration over the past decade, there is still relatively little data on the economic outcomes and trajectories of work visa holders after they arrive. Published statistics provide data on the nationalities and, in some cases, proposed occupation and industry of work visa recipients when they apply for a visa or an extension. But little is known about how work visa holders fare in the long term, particularly after those who remain in the UK have received settlement or citizenship. It is possible that in future, such data could become available from administrative data sources (i.e. HMRC and DWP records).
There is also limited data on the occupations or earnings of short-term migrants, including those from EU countries during the period when free movement was still in place. Short-term workers from either EU or non-EU countries are not expected to be captured well by the Labour Force Survey, for example.
Another area of limited evidence is emigration. While there are statistics on the numbers of people leaving the UK for at least 12 months by their reason for coming to the UK (including work), it is currently not possible to provide a clear picture of the skills and activities of people who leave vs. remain in the UK long term.
Acknowledgements
Thanks to Gemma Hyslop and Brian Bell for comments on earlier versions of this briefing and to Hector Hurmuz-Sklias for creating the visualisations.
This briefing was produced with the support of Trust for London. The Trust is one of the largest independent charitable foundations in London and supports work which tackles poverty and inequality in the capital. More details at www.trustforlondon.org.uk.
This work was produced using statistical data from ONS. The use of the ONS statistical data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates.
References
Home Office. 2024. Immigration statistics quarterly release, year ending March 2024. London: Home Office, March 2024. Available online.
Home Office. 2024. Migrant journey: 2023 report. Available online.
Office for National Statistics, Social Survey Division. (2023). Annual Population Survey, 2004-2022: Secure Access. [data collection]. 29th Edition. UK Data Service. SN: 6721, DOI: http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-6721-28
HMRC. 2024. Payrolled employments by nationality, region and industry, July 2014 to December 2023. London: HMRC. Available online.
Source link : https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/work-visas-and-migrant-workers-in-the-uk/
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Publish date : 2024-08-30 07:00:00
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