(2) Turnout by parish (2023)
Figure a · Turnout by parish
The chart in “the data” shows the evolution of the parties’ vote share in the national constituency from 2019 to 2023. The territorial distribution of the vote in 2023 and the evolution in the number of representatives is reported in Figure c. When comparing the results of the last two elections, three key differences stand out. First, the data attests to the electoral gains of the governing DA party, which went from securing only a plurality to controlling an absolute majority in the legislature, despite a slight loss in popular vote in the national constituency (which was more than offset by its good results in parish constituencies). Secondly, we witness the emergence of a new party, Concòrdia, which combines Andorran nationalism with a modernized political agenda. Thirdly, the data suggests that the emergence of Concòrdia has occurred largely at the expense of the Social Democratic Party which, despite forming a single platform with other social democratic and progressive parties for the first time in many years, lost its position as the first opposition party, going from 7 councilors in 2019 to 3 in 2023. Overall, the configuration of political forces competing in the 2023 election was remarkable, with 4 of the 6 parties or coalitions present in the national constituency being new with respect to 2019.
Together with the consolidation of DA and the collapse of both PS and Liberals d’Andorra
, the emergence of Concòrdia is the third remarkable phenomenon of this election. Concòrdia, headed by Cerni Escalé, is a young party whose leaders are political newcomers in their thirties. Among them are political scientists and economists, many of whom have studied abroad. Together, they managed to create, in a very short time, a horizontal and assembly-based political project that combines the defense of Aindorran nation, Catalanism, and an eclectic ideology (with measures that could be classified as right-wing but at the same time anchored in an ideal of social cohesion and justice). Despite not having any previous institutional experience, they are now leading the opposition to the Espot government.
The role played by local (parish) dynamics in national elections cannot be overemphasized. DA’s 2023 victory, in particular, is strongly anchored in local dynamics. The strength of its local candidates was the party’s main asset, with first-past-the-post voting amplifying the effects of its local dominance. DA was also the only party to present parish candidates in each of the 7 communes, and it obtained more votes in the parish lists than in the national list. On the other hand, the performance of new forces such as Concòrdia and Andorra Endavant is mostly based on their good results in the national constituency, where obtaining representation is less costly and the influence of national elites is weaker. Andorra’s dual voting system produces different result in the national and in the parochial ballot box, with a significantly larger share of blank votes in the latter due to some parties not presenting parochial tickets.
PartyVotes
nat.%
nat.Seats
nat.Votes
par.%
par.Seats
par.ChangeDemòcrates per Andorra626232,66573091116+5Concòrdia410921,433351625+5Partit Socialdemòcrata–Progressistes SDP403621,053523803-4Andorra Endavant3067163137003+3Liberals d’Andorra8934,660300700-4Acció8054,20197911+1Blank votes537––1527–––Invalid votes341––557–––Total2005010014200431428
Turnout2995866,93–2995866,9––Figure c · Electoral results 2023
Source: https://www.eleccions.ad/resultats; nat. = national constituency, par. = parish constituencies
In conclusion, the 2023 election has consolidated the parliamentary support of the Demòcrates per Andorra government and given it strong legitimacy to govern the country in the next four years. The government will be able to rely on a solid parliamentary majority to face the profound societal changes that the likely ratification of the cooperation agreement with the EU will bring about. The agreement is expected to consolidate the existence of an EU-European microstates framework agreement, common to Monaco, San Marino and Andorra, with country-specific protocols for each of them. This evolution, if it materializes, will also have a lasting impact on Andorran politics. The holding of a referendum on the ratification of the association agreement, promised by DA during the campaign, is still pending confirmation.
In parallel to this stability, the 2023 election has shown interesting signs of change that should be consolidated in the next four years and that can also impact the future of Andorran politics. This includes the emergence of Concòrdia and Andorra Endavant, two parties with a new leadership embodying real demands for change; the internal renovation process that the Partit Socialdemòcrata (and the different sensibilities that it has allied with in this election) will have to carry out following its electoral defeat; and the delicate situation of the Liberals d’Andorra, now represented in parliament by a single councilor.
Finally, we note that the double ballot-box system has generated a very remarkable political stability, which clearly reinforces the local elites and has penalized the reformist options that gained momentum in the proportional ballot. Together, Concòrdia and Andorra Endavant, the two parties that championed the deepest political change (and not only alternation in power, as was the case of the Partit Socialdemòcrata), have gathered more popular votes than the Demòcrates per Andorra. In a certain way, we can observe that the desire for political change still has to be translated into the representation system.
The Data
References
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Publish date : 2023-04-02 07:00:00
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