The Old Continent was not expected to be at the heart of the first US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump last night (11 September), so it was no surprise that it only cropped up in the context of the Ukraine war and defence spending.
It is no secret among defence experts and European diplomats that the US presidential election in November will significantly impact the continent’s security.
So why did last night’s debate matter?
Despite becoming more conscious of building up their capabilities, Europeans remain heavily reliant on US intelligence, arms, and technology. This, in turn, feeds concerns about what would happen if Washington one day abandoned Europe, leaving it to its own fate.
But while Europe worries, America is innovating and preparing to send us the financial bill at the end of the year.
Yes, the spectre of former Republican President Donald Trump suggesting he would abandon European allies to Moscow if they did not pay their share towards NATO’s security and the ensuing chaos that will unfold is scary. The same goes when he states he will bring peace to Ukraine immediately.
Many think a Harris administration could be calmer, quieter, and more business as usual, but let us not forget that it was not all rosy under the Democrats.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden also called for their NATO allies to spend more on defence. Most diplomats will tell you they were simply more discrete when doing so.
Also, remember that it was Biden’s administration who left the Europeans stranded in Kabul after the Taliban takeover, they will not send long-range weapons to Ukraine and created the Inflation Reduction Act, which worried Europeans as they would lose their companies to America.
In recent months the Americans have slowly stepped back from influencing the alliance’s agenda on Ukraine, instead shifting attention to China and domestic issues, several NATO diplomats informed me.
The uncomfortable truth is that Europeans have tolerated this because the US is a close friend and still largely pays for our security, protecting us from the wraths of Russia, China and others.
If the Europeans want to take ownership of the future of their security and have independence in decision-making, it will be a long, arduous and expensive path.
According to Draghi, another €800 billion per year needs to be spent, regardless of whether the US is led by Harris or Trump.
Europeans have gotten into the habit of drawing inspiration from the US to draft their policies – count how many times they are mentioned in the Draghi report.
But when it comes to securing the continent and preparing for war, in the long term, even if Harris wins, this should not be a reason for investing or not investing, for buying more or less American. Europe’s defence policy – which includes trade links with China – should primarily be based on European security considerations, rather than one politician’s interest in getting to the White House.
It is not a matter of if, but when.
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German CDU leader and chancellor hopeful Friedrich Merz pledged on Wednesday (11 September) to do “everything I can” to prevent the permanent issuing of EU joint debt, after the idea featured prominently in Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness earlier this week.
Despite the conclusion of the Irish Data Protection Commission’s (DPC) court proceedings against social media platform X, questions about its Artificial Intelligence (AI) data practices and compliance with EU data protection laws remain.
While Italian technocrat Mario Draghi may have accurately diagnosed the EU’s competitiveness problems in his long-awaited report, his cure lacks spark, experts say.
Germany is determined to press forward to implement border controls, undeterred by a backlash from its EU partners, Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasised that the “dispute is necessary”, on Wednesday (11 September).
An EU court order that Apple pay Ireland 13 billion euros in back taxes triggered mixed feelings in Dublin on Tuesday (10 September) as the government assessed possible reputational damage and rebuffed opposition calls for the cash to be spent quickly.
Look out for…
Heinrich Böll Stiftung organises a conference on “The EU integration of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia: Road to Security, Democracy and Welfare?” in Warsaw, Poland
Eurogroup ministers meet
Informal meeting of EU economic and financial affairs ministers, 13-14 September 2024
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell meets Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati and other senior members of the Lebanese government.
European Commissioner Vice President for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová meets International (IDEA), European Endowment for Democracy (EED), European Partnership for Democracy (EPD), Open Government Partnership (OGP) and European Network of Political Foundations (ENoP), in Brussels, Belgium.
European Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra, Chair of the International Military Council on Climate and Security Tom Middendorp, and representatives of the Think Now project.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a keynote speech at the DLD Nature Conference in Munich, Germany.
[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe/Rajnish Singh]
Source link : https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/the-brief-whether-trump-or-harris-makes-no-big-difference/
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Publish date : 2024-09-11 07:00:00
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