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In 2023, asylum accounted for 7% of immigration to the UK, compared with 4% who arrived on bespoke humanitarian schemes
In 2023, long-term international migration to the UK was estimated to be around 1.2 million. Of these, 81,000 came to claim asylum, which is equivalent to around 7% of all immigrants in that year.
Changes over time in the number of people claiming asylum in the UK are driven in large part by geopolitical events since asylum seekers come mainly from countries with political and military conflicts. For example, the spike in people who came to the UK to seek asylum from 1998 to 2002 were mainly nationals of Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq and the former Yugoslavia, which were then sites of war (Figure 2).
Figure 2
In 2021 and 2022, the UK introduced a series of bespoke humanitarian schemes targeted at specific nationalities: Ukrainians, Afghans and BN(O)s from Hong Kong (see ‘Understanding the Policy’ above). In 2022, the number of beneficiaries of the schemes far surpassed the number of resettled refugees and people granted asylum in any year since 1979. Although visa issuances under these programmes fell significantly in 2023, they still exceeded the number of resettled refugees and in-country asylum grants. Humanitarian schemes accounted for around 4% of immigration to the UK in 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Figure 3
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In 2023, the top five most common countries of nationality of people who applied for asylum from within the UK were Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh
Table 1 shows the fifteen most common countries of nationality of people (main applicants and dependants) who applied for asylum in the UK in 2023.
The share of applications that ultimately result in a grant of asylum or other permission to stay varies significantly by nationality. For example, looking at applications received across the three-year period 2019 to 2021, the share of Syrian and Eritrean nationals who had received a grant of asylum or other permission by September 2023 was 91% (after appeal), while for Indian nationals, it was 6% (Table 1).
Table 1
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The success rate of asylum applications at initial decision increased sharply from 2018 to 2022 before falling in 2023
In 2022, the share of asylum applications receiving a grant at initial decision rose to a record high of 76%, which is much higher than in previous years. In 2018, the initial decision grant rate was 33% (Figure 4). Many factors could have driven the change. One is a change in the composition of applicants. For example, in recent years, there has been an increase in nationalities whose asylum application success rate is higher than the average, such as Iranians, Syrians and Eritreans (Table 1).
However, in 2023, the percentage of successful applications at the initial decision stage dropped to 67% (Figure 4). This decline in overall success rates may be linked to policy changes and changes in the composition of applicants. In 2023, 21% of all refusals were of Albanian nationals who historically have had low asylum success rates in the UK, but whose applications peaked in 2022 (Table 2).
Figure 4
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In 2023, asylum success rates at initial decision were very similar among men and women
Data from 2023 show that asylum success rates at initial decision were very similar among men and women in all age groups except the over-70s (Figure 4). For example, 70% of men aged 18-29 were granted asylum or another legal status, compared to 68% of women aged 18-29.
An important factor that increases the share of female refugees in the UK is that following grants of asylum, many young male refugees will go on to be joined by their female partners through refugee family reunion. From 2012 to 2023, 81% of adults receiving refugee family reunion visas were women. As a result, after accounting for family reunion, the gender balance of those granted protection becomes more even over time. Taken together, women made up 36% of adults granted asylum-related status or refugee family reunion between 2012 and 2023 (Table 2). Note that these figures exclude asylum applicants who are initially refused but are successful on appeal, as the immigration statistics do not include a gender breakdown for this group.
Table 2
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Taking appeals into account, 66% of asylum applications submitted from 2018 to 2020 inclusive are estimated to have received a grant of asylum-related protection by June 2022 – up from 56% at initial decision
All initial decisions by the Home Office on asylum claims can be appealed against, which ultimately increases the share of successful claims. Of all applications (main applicants) received in the three-year period from 2018 to 2020 with a known outcome as of June 2022 (this excludes withdrawn and pending applications), 56% resulted in a grant of asylum or other permission to stay at initial decision.
Over this period, 57% of initial decisions were appealed. Most appeals are against refusals, but some appeals are against positive decisions to seek a stronger form of permission to stay, such as refugee status rather than humanitarian protection. Of these appeals with a known outcome (excluding pending and withdrawn appeals), 45% were successful. This increased the grant rate from 56% at initial Home Office decision to 66% after appeal to the First-tier tribunal (Figure 5).
Figure 5
For applications received between 2011 to 2018 with known outcomes as of June 2022, successful appeals increased success rates by between 13 and 21 percentage points each year (Figure 6). Since 2019, the gap between initial grant rates and grant rates after appeal has significantly narrowed. This is because initial grant rates were already high and there were fewer appeals being submitted.
Changes in grant rates following appeals are, in part, the result of changes in the success rate of appeals. The share of concluded appeals that were successful increased from a low of 19% in 2004 to a high of 49% in 2023.[1]
Figure 6
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The share of asylum applications that received an initial decision within six months fell from 87% in Q2 2014 to 6% in Q3 2023
The time it takes for asylum seekers to receive an initial decision on their application has increased significantly in recent years. In Q2 2014, 87% of applications received an initial decision within six months, compared to 6% in Q3 2023.
Figure 7
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Between 2018 and 2022 the UK’s asylum backlog increased sharply from 27,000 to 132,000 applications. It fell by 28% in 2023 following several government measures to process applications faster.
The asylum backlog has increased substantially in recent years due to an increase in applications and applications taking longer to process. On 30 June 2023, around 175,500 people were awaiting an initial decision on their asylum claim (including main applicants and dependants) – a more than eighteen-fold increase in the number awaiting an initial decision on 30 June 2010 (Figure 8). Of the 175,500 people awaiting an initial decision from the Home Office on June 2023, 80% had been waiting for more than six months.
Recent data show a change in this trend. In the first quarter of 2024, the number of people waiting for a decision decreased by 31% compared to the same quarter of 2023. This reduction follows the government’s recent efforts to clear the legacy backlog (see the Understanding the Policy section and our briefing on The UK’s Asylum Backlog).
Figure 8
Research shows that longer asylum waiting times have negative impacts on long-term employment outcomes for asylum seekers and that being unable to work while waiting for a decision is also likely to hinder long-term integration.
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The distribution of asylum seekers and resettled refugees is uneven across the UK
Asylum seekers are unevenly distributed across the UK. The majority are concentrated in London, the North West of England and West Midlands. Ten local authorities host 22% of this population (Figure 9). This distribution is partly influenced by dispersal policies, which incentivise contractors to house people in places where accommodation is cheaper.
The distribution of asylum seekers contrasts with that of people who came under the Ukraine schemes, who are more highly dispersed across the UK. The ten authorities with the highest number of Ukrainian nationals on the Home for Ukraine Schemes host only 11% of this population. This is because the scheme works around individual families’ availability to support a Ukrainian citizen. The individual local authorities hosting the highest number of Ukrainian nationals are located in the South West and South East regions of England: Buckinghamshire, Somerset, and Barnet. Scotland hosts more of this population than any other region of the UK (Figure 9).
Figure 9
The use of contingency accommodation to house asylum seekers has increased substantially since the pandemic
Destitute asylum seekers are provided with different types of accommodation, including initial, dispersed, and contingency accommodation. Dispersed accommodation refers to self-contained housing where nuclear families are allowed to stay together. Initial accommodation is usually a hostel-type environment, intended to be used as a first solution before transfer to dispersed accommodation.
Contingency accommodation is provided by the Home Office to host asylum seekers who are not able to move to dispersed accommodation within three to four weeks. It includes the use of hotels. This solution has become increasingly common since the pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, only 5% of supported asylum seekers were housed in contingency, initial or other non-dispersed accommodation. By the first quarter of 2024, 41% were in this type of housing (Figure 10). Among those in contingency, initial, and other non-dispersed accommodation as of March 2024, the majority (68%) were in hotels.[2]
As part of the Asylum and Protection Transformation Programme, and as a means to reduce the cost of the asylum system, the Home Office has enforced more room-sharing in hotels. There have been concerns raised about the safety of room-sharing for vulnerable asylum seekers. In addition, the Conservative government pledged that it would start housing more people in repurposed accommodation, such as unused military sites. In the first quarter of 2024, only 3% of all places used to house asylum seekers consisted of ‘Other’ types of contingency accommodation.[3]
Figure 10
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The financial cost of operating the UK’s asylum system reached around £4bn in the financial year 2022/23
The financial cost of the UK’s asylum system has increased substantially in recent years: from £538 million in the financial year 2011/12 to £3,967 million ten years later in 2022/23 (Figure 11).
Figure 11
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Despite nominal increases, in real terms, the asylum support payment level in 2023 was 29% lower than in 2000
Under section 95 of the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999, destitute asylum seekers are entitled to free accommodation and a weekly cash allowance to cover their essential living needs. The Home Office regularly reviews the level of the weekly cash allowance and has changed it 13 times since 2000 (Figure 12: Nominal payment).
When introduced in 2000, asylum seekers were entitled to one of a variety of different payments, depending on their age and whether they were a lone parent or part of a couple. In 2015, the government replaced these different payments by a single payment level for all destitute asylum seekers.
Increases in support payments have not kept up with inflation. Since the single asylum support payment was introduced in 2015, the level of the payment has fallen in real terms (Figure 12: Inflation-adjusted). In real terms, the payment level in 2023 of £6.77 per day was 29% lower than in 2000. The daily rate paid to a single adult in 2000, £5.22, bought goods and services that would today cost £9.
Figure 12
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Compared against EU countries, the UK ranked 5th for number of asylum claims received in 2023, but 20th if adjusted for population size
In 2023, the UK received around 84,000 in-country asylum applicants, the fifth highest when compared with the EU+ (the EU-27 plus Switzerland and the three EEA countries, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway). When adjusted by population size, it received the 20th highest number of applications: 12.5 per 10,000 residents.
In the same year, the UK granted asylum or another form of legal status to around 62,000 people (at initial decision, excluding appeals), placing it second in the league table. Germany ranks first on both measures, receiving around 351,000 asylum applicants in 2023 and granting asylum-related protection to around 135,000 people at initial decision that year (Figure 13).
Adjusted for population size, the UK ranks 10th when compared with the EU+, having granted protection in 2023 to nine asylum seekers per 10,000 of its resident population.
Figure 13
These figures do not include people given protection under refugee resettlement programmes. Under such programmes, the UK resettled around 31,000 refugees from 2012 to 2022, excluding the Afghan resettlement schemes and Ukraine/Hong Kong visa programmes. While the UK ranked first in the league table in 2019 compared to the EU+, it fell to 5th place in 2022 (Figure 14). During that year, the UK resettled 1,163 people, whereas Sweden, ranking first in the measure, resettled 5,000 people. When adjusting for population size, the UK ranks 10th on the list. As data on resettlement for 2023 is not yet available for most EU countries, this comparison is provided for 2022.
Figure 14
When looking at all people given protection in 2022 – including through both the in-country asylum route and through refugee resettlement – the UK ranked 5th among EU+ countries (Figure 15). The UK falls to 20th place in the ranking when adjusting for population size.
Figure 15
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Evidence Gaps and Limitations
We do not know how many people the UK has ever granted asylum or another form of asylum-related protection to, because published statistics go back only as far as 1979. Moreover, these published statistics record the outcomes of initial decisions only and do not take into account appeals, which increase the number of people that are ultimately granted asylum-related permission to stay.
The government does not provide regular statistics on asylum claimants broken down by their method of entry into the UK. Therefore, we do not know what share arrived by visa-free travel, on a visa, using fake documents, or by clandestine means, such as by small boat or stowing away on a lorry.
Nor do we have clear information on how long asylum applications take. Data are provided on the share of applications receiving an initial decision within 6 months, and on the number of applications currently pending, but it is not possible using existing data to calculate how long it takes the ‘average’ asylum application to receive an initial decision or final outcome.
There is also limited information on what happens to refused asylum seekers. Some depart with the assistance or oversight of the government, for which data are available. However, others depart without notifying the authorities, or remain in the UK as irregular migrants (see the Migration Observatory briefing, Irregular migration in the UK). Data on people departing the UK have improved in the past few years, in part due to the introduction of ‘exit checks’ in 2015. However, significant data gaps remain for earlier cohorts.
Footnotes
[1] Migration observatory analysis of Home Office, Immigration Statistics, Table Asy_D06 December 2023
[2] Migration observatory analysis of Home Office Immigration Statistics, Table Asy_D11 December 2023
[3] Migration observatory analysis of Home Office Immigration Statistics, Table Asy_D11 December 2023
Source link : https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migration-to-the-uk-asylum/
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Publish date : 2024-07-01 07:00:00
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