Data via Cirium
Just look at that increase we’ve seen in Southern Europe since before the pandemic. In 2019, Southern Europe accounted for 21 percent of Delta’s seats over the Atlantic. But next summer? It’ll be 32 percent.
Perhaps it’s not a surprise to see such growth in the region. We’ve seen a bottomless pit of demand over the Atlantic during the summer into primary tourist markets, and those just happen to concentrate themselves around the Mediterranean. So it might be more interesting to look at what’s happening elsewhere to see how Delta thinks about the region.
Amsterdam, Paris, and London aren’t fair comparisons without looking at what the joint venture partners are doing. After all, since they split revenue, it doesn’t really matter who is flying the airplane. It can still be considered Delta’s capacity to sell.
So, let’s see how those come out when we include everything.
Delta/Northwest/Air France/KLM/Virgin Atlantic Departing Seats from Europe
Data via Cirium
Amsterdam is still down, but not nearly as bad as Delta is down alone. KLM is simply getting more capacity from Delta, like the Portland flight which switches. But again, it’s down overall. This is the result of continued issues with the Dutch government trying to restrict capacity. There really isn’t much more that can be done there.
Meanwhile in Paris, there still is large growth on all sides. But again, there’s only so much that Delta and friends can do in that airport. Air France continues to find new opportunities like Phoenix, etc, but it’s unclear how many more of those it has up its sleeve.
And London is, well, it’s London. Once Virgin Atlantic joined forces with Delta, capacity was reallocated to serve more in the Transatlantic market. But that airport is full, so the only real potential here is to get more seats on each airplane, something that might not really be helpful anyway. More flights to more places would be more interesting, but it’s not on the table.
I broke out Scandinavia as well in the original chart, and that’s because SAS will eventually be joining the joint venture. The only point here is to show just how small that market is for Delta today. I imagine there will be more opportunity in the future.
Other than that, the only real growth outside of Southern Europe is in the British Isles. We’re talking about those big leisure destinations like Dublin or Scotland. These markets are attractive because they are short and can be served with smaller airplanes if desired. The demand is big in summer, so it’s worth adding more capacity.
The other markets, highlighted by Germany completing falling out of favor, are just not going to get any love from Delta. The airline continues to pull back in Germany in particular.
So, next summer is all about those big markets on the Med. Beyond that and the hubs, there just isn’t much more that Delta cares about for now. I have no doubt those trends will shift eventually, but that’s an issue for another day. For next summer, Delta’s mission is clear.
Source link : https://crankyflier.com/2024/10/08/delta-looks-to-southern-europe-for-growth/
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Publish date : 2024-10-08 10:45:00
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