July 10, 2024 –
Karolina Zub-Lewińska
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Articles and Commentary
Boundary markers near Elvenes on the east bank of Paatsjoki River. The Norwegian markers are yellow with black tops and the Russian red and green. Photo: Jørgen Weinreich Maltesen / Shutterstock
Kirkenes is a small town in the Norwegian Arctic province of Finnmark, located just a few kilometres from the border with Russia. The strategic location between the two feuding blocs has made it a witness to major historical events. Few people remember that during the Second World War, this multicultural city by the Barents Sea was one of the most frequently bombarded places in Europe. The reason for this is that from the moment the Germans occupied Norway in June 1940, Kirkenes was an important Nazi naval and air base. Around 30,000 German soldiers were stationed here, and a depot supplying the Murmansk front was also set up during this time. When the Red Army began to push German forces out of northern Norway and Finland in October 1944 as part of the Petsamo-Kirkenes Operation, Adolf Hitler ordered a forced evacuation of the entire province of Finnmark. Countless inhabitants of the border town refused to obey the tyrant’s order and took refuge from the Nazis in the area’s numerous caves and mine shafts. Faced with unexpected resistance from the Norwegians, the Germans began the systematic destruction of Finnmark using “scorched earth” tactics – not a single house or fishing boat was to be left in the entire region. Ruthless murders of civilians were committed. The hiding inhabitants were finally rescued by the Red Army, which entered Kirkenes on October 25th. As a token of their appreciation for being rescued from the hands of the Nazis, the townspeople put up a monument of a Red Army soldier and numerous commemorative plaques in the surrounding villages dedicated to this event.
On February 23rd 2022, the Russian Ambassador to Norway Teimuraz Ramishvili, together with Consul General Nikolai Konygin, bowed and laid flowers at this monument, paying tribute to the Soviet soldiers that liberated Finnmark. The ceremony was held in connection with “Defender of the Fatherland Day”, which falls on this day and is celebrated with pomp by the armed forces of Russia and Belarus. However, it is rarely celebrated outside the former Soviet Union.
A few hours later, the first Russian bombs began to fall on independent Ukraine, starting the largest armed conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War. In this situation, the “manifestation” of Russian government officials in a town marked by such history takes on special significance. This is especially true as such provocations by the Russians are on the rise and Norwegians are taking the possibility of a conventional attack by the Russian Federation more and more seriously. Could a possible Russian invasion start in the symbolic town of Kirkenes, located at the intersection of two blocs? Or will Russian soldiers occupy the islands of the Svalbard archipelago, home to some of the best fishing grounds in the world? What might encourage the Kremlin to question the 2010 Barents Sea delimitation treaty signed after forty years of dispute? Why does the Russian side still maintain an unprofitable coal mine in Barentsburg?
The riches of the Norwegian Arctic
The Far North is strategically important to Norway in terms of maintaining the state’s integrity and sovereignty. It is also an important component of Norwegian identity and national pride. For the past two decades, however, Norwegians have viewed their Arctic territories mainly through the prism of vast economic opportunities. Oslo invests in the Arctic in various economic sectors, including the maritime economy, renewable energy, hydrocarbon and mineral extraction, satellite infrastructure and tourism. Fisheries and the oil and gas sector play a key role in the economy of this Nordic state. The waters of the Barents Sea are home to the world’s largest cod fisheries, a fact of considerable importance given that this Nordic state became the world’s largest fish exporter in 2023 (with exports worth more than 15 billion US dollars). The role of this industry in Norway’s economy means that an important part of the state’s policy towards the region is to restrict the access of other Arctic players, including Russia, to the abundant Svalbard fisheries.
The Barents Sea, which Norway shares with the Russian Federation, also hides real treasures from the perspective of oil and gas. According to estimates, the deposits there contain as much as two-thirds of the country’s remaining oil and gas reserves. In “wartime” 2022, 93 deposits were being exploited on the Norwegian shelf – 70 in the North Sea, 21 in the Norwegian Sea and two in the Barents Sea (this year extraction will start at the third largest Arctic deposit to date). Oil and gas accounted for 73 per cent of the total value of Norwegian commodity exports in 2022.
The Russian Federation has made “black gold” and “blue fuel” its arsenal of blackmail through which it has kept European states in check for many years. The situation began to change after Russia began its armed aggression against Ukraine. As a part of the sixth package of sanctions imposed on the Kremlin, which came into force at the beginning of June 2022, Russian oil supplies to EU countries were embargoed. Member states have also set the goal of finally ending their dependence on Russian gas within the next decade. In 2023, Russian oil and gas exports amounted to 30 billion US dollars, a threefold decrease compared to 2022. A further decline in Russian energy exports to EU countries can be expected in 2024. According to official data, the Kremlin’s revenue from the sale of fossil raw materials has fallen by 24 per cent. The Russian state is not in a position to replace EU oil and gas customers in such a short period of time.
The gap in the European market for these strategically important supplies is being filled by Norway which, following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, has become the largest supplier of “blue fuel” and covers almost half of the EU’s demand for this resource. According to data from the Continental Shelf Department, in December 2023, Norway broke a monthly gas production record of 379 million m³ per day (the previous historical result was set in January 2017 at 327.77 m³). In terms of “black gold”, deliveries from Norway to European countries at the end of last year amounted to 1.85 million barrels per day.
The Nordic state is “saving Europe” while standing in the way of the Russian “empire”. Despite this, it is increasingly falling victim to its provocations and aggressions below the threshold of war.
Russian-Norwegian “Cold War” in the Arctic
On May 9th last year, a parade to celebrate Russia’s lavishly celebrated Victory Day swept through the industrial town of Barentsburg, inhabited by around 400 people. The parade consisted of an enthusiastic crowd waving Russian flags, alongside snowmobiles, tractors and trucks, which were led by men in green clothing that deceptively resembled military uniforms. It should be noted that Barentsburg is several thousand kilometres from the Russian capital and is located on the territory of the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. It is inhabited mainly by Russian miners and their families, who began to appear in the area already in the late 1920s. They are employed by the Russian state concern Trust Arktikugol in the local coal mine. Mining in Barentsburg has long been unprofitable and the Kremlin regularly subsidizes this venture. However, economic interest is not the priority here. Something completely different is at stake.
Since Andrei Chemerilo (with links to Russian military intelligence) was appointed as Russia’s consul general on Svalbard in July 2022, there have been regular incidents on the archipelago. Of course, this is happening under the jurisdiction of a NATO member, with such actions aimed at manifesting Russian claims to the territory. Also echoing loudly are the symbolic “naval parades” (only a few civilian boats take part) organized by the problematic consul to celebrate the Russian Navy. They are not intended to show Russian military might (like those organized in the largest Russian port cities of the Russian Federation) but Russia’s presence outside its own Arctic territories.
In the summer of 2022, the Norwegians joined EU sanctions on Russia and restricted them from supplying Barentsburg through their country’s northern territories. Enraged, the Kremlin unleashed a media campaign against Oslo, questioning the validity of the 2010 Barents Sea delimitation treaty and Svalbard’s position within Norway. As noted earlier, Svalbard is under Norwegian jurisdiction but the actions of the state authorities in terms of conducting economic activities, particularly of a military nature, have been limited in order “not to irritate Russia”. After the attack on Ukraine, observing disturbing moves around Svalbard, Norwegians became increasingly concerned that Russian forces would occupy the strategic archipelago. This is especially true as there is excellent room for manoeuvre for the Russian side. This originates in key differences in the interpretation of the Spitsbergen Treaty signed in 1920. Under its terms, Russia has the right to develop economic activities in the archipelago’s territories. The Norwegians consider this right to apply only to the islands and territorial waters, while the Russians also include the 200 nautical miles from the coastline around Svalbard. According to the Kremlin, the archipelago is a demilitarized area. The Norwegian authorities argue that although treaty provisions exclude the possibility of a permanent military presence, e.g. in the form of military bases, they do allow Norwegian soldiers to be present there or for military aircraft to land.
The archipelago, which is under the jurisdiction of a NATO member state, seems to be an ideal place for Russia to conduct provocative actions against the largest defence alliance in the world. It also allows them to test the unity of Alliance members, especially in the context of the application of Article 5. Norway is also preparing for other scenarios concerning a potential conventional conflict with the world’s largest state. Increasingly, there are claims among the military and politicians that, in the event of a Russia-NATO war, Russian forces could capture the northern territories of the Norwegian state.
Norwegians preparing for war
For several decades after the end of the “Cold War”, the basis of Norwegian security policy in the Arctic region was a paradigm based on maintaining its own defensive capabilities in close cooperation with NATO allies (especially the US). On the other hand, it also focused on “appeasing” and “not irritating” an unpredictable neighbour through close bilateral cooperation, which is especially reflected in the economic sphere. Norwegian pragmatism was also visible after February 2022. For example, in October of that year the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission decided on the distribution of cod fishing quotas. Representatives of Norway, which took over the chairmanship of the Arctic Council in May 2023 (previously the chairmanship was held by Russia in 2021-23), despite not accepting the Russian invasion of Ukraine, believe that it is impossible to manage this strategically important region without maintaining at least “technical” contacts with Russia. These are aimed at, for example, combatting unprecedented climate change and loss of biodiversity, which affect the situation of the entire globe. There are also attempts to look after the interests of indigenous communities.
Like for the other states in the Nordic-Baltic region, Russia’s attack on an independent Ukraine represents an important caesura in Norway’s security policy in the area. It is impossible to underestimate the proximity of the Northern Fleet, the growing military potential of the Russian Federation, or the increasing frequency of hybrid actions targeting the “land of Fjords”.
It should be emphasized that even until the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Norway was the most militarily engaged NATO member. Most of its ground forces are stationed in the Far North. Combat capability is enhanced by the air force and navy. Reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities, which are vital to the North Atlantic Alliance as a whole, are provided by reconnaissance ships, P-8 and F-35 aircraft and a Globus III radar station near the Russian border. The army’s development plan for the period 2020-28 assumes an increase in defence spending of around two billion US dollars.
After February 2022, the state has decided to develop its military potential in terms of its ability to operate in the “Arctic operational direction”. There have also been regular appeals from the military and senior government officials, calling on the North Atlantic Alliance to strengthen NATO deterrence in the Far North. In March 2022, the government decided to increase the defence budget by an additional 300 million US dollars on an ad hoc basis. These funds are to contribute mainly to increasing naval activity and the readiness of the armed forces in the northern part of the country, as well as intensifying military exercises, including in the aforementioned Finnmark region bordering neo-imperial Russia. A substantial outlay, i.e. approximately 52 million US dollars, will be allocated to counter-intelligence activities, particularly in the northern regions of the country.
According to the Norwegian government and statements by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, the NATO-required defence spending level of two per cent of GDP will be already achieved by the middle of this year. This is a very good move, as Oslo previously announced that it would only achieve this target in 2026 (in 2022, Norway spent 1.57 per cent of its GDP on its defence). In early April, there were also declarations that Norway would increase defence spending from two per cent of GDP to three per cent by 2036. The funding for this is to come from the Oil Fund and will allow for an increase in the number of conscripts from 9,000 to around 14,000. It will also help with the creation of two new brigades, the purchase of frigates and submarines, as well as a long-range air defence system.
A crucially important development affecting not only the security of Norway but the North Atlantic Alliance as a whole is the construction of an Arctic satellite station to counter hostile missiles. The island of Andøya (300 km within the Arctic circle), which previously housed Norway’s fleet of P-3 Orion surveillance vehicles, was chosen as its location. A new Arctic long-range drone base will also be positioned on the strategic island. This will be the first installation of its kind outside the US and will provide members of the largest defence alliance in the history of the world with an early warning mechanism against cruise missiles in the north (the base will be located about 800 kilometres from Severomorsk, the headquarters of Russia’s Northern Fleet).
The fact that Norway is taking the possibility of an attack from the Russian side more and more seriously and is placing importance on closer cooperation with NATO in this regard is evidenced by the Nordic Response 2024 exercises (as part of NATO’s largest manoeuvres since the end of the “Cold War” – Steadfast Defender). In March, Norway hosted 20,000 NATO troops on its northern territories, preparing for land, sea and air combat in harsh winter conditions.
Russia is blunting its imperial claws on the battlefields of Ukraine and, according to Norwegian intelligence – has redirected some of its forces so far stationed along the Norwegian border to fighting in Ukraine. However, it has several means in its arsenal with which it will be destabilizing the situation in the Far North. Norway must be prepared for attacks on Norwegian offshore infrastructure, displays of Northern Fleet power across the Barents Sea, “unintended environmental disasters”, espionage and the growth of paramilitary formations.
The situation in the Arctic will be “heated up” not only by climate change but also by “frustrated Russian-speaking minorities”, who recently erected a huge cross on the Svalbard mountain Pyramiden without the knowledge of the Norwegian authorities, proclaiming it to be “sacred Russian land”. In Kirkenes, meanwhile, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a dispute has arisen between the municipal authorities and the local Russian consulate concerning a statue of a Red Army soldier…
Karolina Zub-Lewińska is a specialized translator of Russian (listed in the register of translators of the Polish Chief Technical Organization), Eastern expert looking at the post-Soviet area through the prism of security and business opportunities, and a researcher in the field of security. She is a member of the Polish Society of Sworn and Specialized Translators TEPIS, the Polish Society for Security Studies and Polish Society for International Studies (section on Russia and the post-Soviet area, section on international security, section on studies of polar regions).
Read the other two articles in the author’s series on the Arctic here:
Finding Sweden’s role in a new NATO
North to the future?
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energy security, fishing, green transformation, mines, norway, Russia, Scandinavia, the Arctic
Source link : https://neweasterneurope.eu/2024/07/10/norway-on-the-front-line-of-tensions-with-russia/
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Publish date : 2024-07-10 07:00:00
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