October 9, 2024 –
Mark Temnycky
–
Articles and Commentary
Belarusian soldiers of the 11th mechanized brigade during an Independence Day parade in Slonim on July 3rd 2022. Photo: Vital Hil / Shutterstock
Last month, Ukrainian forces caught the Russians by surprise as they launched an incursion into Kursk province. Over the past few weeks, the Ukrainians have claimed over 1,000 square kilometres. The Russian Federation has been slow to react, with the Ukrainian offensive causing fear within Russia.
Some experts believe that the Ukrainians began the incursion into Russia so that they could disrupt Russian operations. The Russian Federation has now been forced to reassign many of its soldiers in eastern Ukraine so that they can be used to fend off Ukrainian forces in Russia. According to Newsweek, the Russian government has moved over 45,000 Russian soldiers from eastern Ukraine so that they can protect Kursk. These instructions, however, have not changed events in the Russian province. To date, the Ukrainian forces continue to hold territory in Russia, and the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk has not been successful.
In an act of desperation, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to long-term ally Alyaksandr Lukashenka for assistance. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Belarus has been an accomplice to Russia. The Belarusian government allowed the Russians to station soldiers and equipment on Belarusian territory. The Russians have fired missiles and launched attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. The Russians also transported equipment from Belarus into Ukraine for their invasion.
But the Belarusian government has stopped short of sending its soldiers into battle. On numerous occasions, President Lukashenka has said that he will not deploy Belarusian soldiers to fight alongside Russia. The Belarusian leader understands that most Belarusians oppose the war, and that he does not have support within his own ranks. To date, dozens of Belarusian military officials have resigned from the Belarusian armed forces in protest. Some of these soldiers have also created or joined volunteer battalions in Ukraine to fight against Russia.
The Belarusian government is also wary of the Belarusian opposition. If the Belarusians were to fully commit themselves to Russia’s war, this would spark further outrage within Belarus. There have been previous resistance movements against President Lukashenka and his government, and the Belarusian leader will hope to retain his power for as long as possible. Having recently celebrated his thirty years of rule, the last thing Lukashenka would want to see is his power stripped from him. Therefore, he will continue to tread lightly on the issue.
President Putin, however, is beginning to put more pressure on President Lukashenka. The Russian Federation understands that Belarus relies heavily on Russian energy and trade. The Belarusian economy is also intertwined with that of Russia. Given this relationship, Lukashenka understands that his options are limited as to how and when he can disobey Putin’s demands. Thus far, the Belarusian leader has managed to maintain his distance. He has allowed Russia to use Belarus as a staging ground for the war. However, he has stood firm on not sending Belarusian soldiers into Ukraine.
Recently, the Russian government called for Belarusian assistance in the war. Belarus has once again denied the request to send troops to Ukraine but it has started to deploy troops near the border with Ukraine. Over the past few weeks, Belarusian troops have conducted exercises near western and northern Ukraine. The Russians are hopeful that these Belarusian movements will be enough to frighten Ukrainian forces, and that it may divert some Ukrainian soldiers to protect the two areas.
The Ukrainians, however, are standing their ground. They are not falling for Minsk’s antics. Instead, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteer battalions will remain in their current positions. They are working hard to defend Ukrainian territory on the battlefields in southern and eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainians will also continue their offensive in Kursk, hoping this may be used as future leverage against the Russians.
Realizing that the Belarusian troop movements near Ukraine have not deterred the Ukrainian forces, the Russian Federation will look to apply added pressure on Belarus. President Lukashenka must determine how he will want to proceed. Will the Belarusian leader spite President Putin, which will only lead to greater tensions between the two countries? Or will President Lukashenka’s actions spark a greater resistance movement within Belarus? Either way, the Belarusian leader has no good options.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
“We suport the Belarusian Awakening’24” is a project co-financed by Solidarity Fund PL within the framework of Polish development cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in the amount of PLN 230,000.
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Alyaksandr Lukashenka, belarus, Belarus-Russia relations, Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Publish date : 2024-10-08 17:00:00
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