Patience is wearing thin among NATO’s eastern members. Proposed sanctions on countries sympathetic to the Russian-Chinese alliance are now a source of tension.
A memorial in front of the Palace of Justice in Warsaw honors the Warsaw Uprising from August to October 1944, a rebellion against the German occupiers.
Schoening / Imago
An armored chain is embedded in the red brick exterior of St. John’s Cathedral in Warsaw. Tucked away in an inconspicuous side alley, it stands as a grim reminder of one of World War II’s darkest episodes. In the fall of 1944, after the SS brutally suppressed the Warsaw Uprising, the German occupiers almost completely obliterated the Polish capital – using flamethrowers and Goliath tanks.
The Red Army, which by this time had already advanced to the eastern bank of the Vistula River, simply watched as the city was razed. It did nothing to stop the slaughter and looting. As Poland’s resistance was crushed, its symbols of statehood were destroyed as well. The Nazis, in effect, were doing Stalin’s dirty work. The dictator in the Kremlin wanted to extend his power deep into the west, and he had no intention of allowing a strong Poland to stand in his way after the war.
Yet the people of Warsaw wasted no time in rebuilding their old town, restoring it to its former glory. By the mid-1950s, the historic center appeared almost untouched by the devastation. It was an act of defiance, a rebellion a statement: «Never again.» The first line of the Polish national anthem, «Poland is not yet lost,» seemed to hold true even for the communists loyal to Moscow.
NATO’s eastern flank: a bastion Russia
This spirit of resistance to authoritarian power is what animates the Warsaw Security Forum, which for the past decade has gathered trans-Atlantic security experts and policymakers each fall. War is a battle of wills, and Ukraine’s will to win the war is stronger than Russia’s, declared a retired general at a podium.
In contrast to the conversation in Switzerland, the forum seems to exist in a different reality. While in Switzerland the threat is discussed in abstract terms, in Poland it is a matter of daily life. The question here is not whether the military should be properly equipped, but how many divisions are needed to fend off a Russian assault and simultaneously support Lithuania.
The commitment to defend NATO’s eastern flank is unquestioned. This year’s forum therefore also sought to reinforce its ties to Western Europe. Rather than criticize Berlin’s passive stance or France’s grand but ineffective rhetoric, the forum’s 2024 report calls for a revival of the Weimar Triangle.
This discussion platform, comprising Poland, Germany and France, was established after the Cold War in 1991 to deepen foreign and security policy integration beyond the recently fallen Iron Curtain. Not even fifty years had passed since the Warsaw Uprising and the expulsion of the German population from territories east of the Oder and Neisse Rivers.
Picture Post / Hulton / Getty
Iran on the Mediterranean
Thirty years on, the situation has shifted dramatically: Poland has emerged as central player in Europe’s security strategy and a bulwark against Russian aggression. A strengthened Weimar Triangle aims to show the European Union that Warsaw, Berlin and Paris can still find common ground despite their differences.
Only a united Europe can adequately shield its member states from being manipulated by the new geopolitics. Russia’s shadow war is already reaching deep into the interior of the continent. It aims to destabilize Germany in particular and alienate it from NATO. Meanwhile, China is courting individual EU states, hoping to lure them into its orbit.
The Eurasian autocracies – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – have long been waging a multi-front assault on the West. Ukraine is the most visible battlefield, but the conflict in the Middle East must also be seen as part of a global confrontation. Iran is not only a threat to Israel, but to the entire West. The regime in Tehran has aligned itself closely with Moscow for strategic purposes, supplying arms to Russia.
In addition, Iran has maintained a military presence on the Mediterranean for years: indirectly through the Shiite militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon, and directly with Revolutionary Guard units in Syria, sometimes even alongside the remnants of Russia’s forces. Just as Ukraine is defending itself against Russia, Israel is defending itself against Iran.
Neutral – but to whom, exactly?
Put simply, Ukraine and Israel are fighting the same war against the same adversary, though in different theaters. In Europe, what was once legitimate criticism of Israel’s policies has morphed into open antisemitism. The growing divide within Western societies is no accident – it weakens Ukraine’s defense campaign as well.
This idea of a global confrontation between Eurasian powers and the West is a common thread at the Warsaw Security Forum. This interconnectedness is particularly evident in military supply chains. The Russian military is deploying North Korean shells and Iranian drones in Ukraine. Russia has also become China’s junior partner in terms of technology.
Although China has yet to intervene directly in the Middle East or in Europe, it ensures that Russia does not lose the war in Ukraine. The Chinese strategy is geared toward dominating the Pacific and Taiwan. Turmoil across the broader Eurasian continent helps keep the United States distracted globally.
Lin Fei-fan, Taiwan’s Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Council, made it clear in Warsaw: «China is not a peacemaker, but a driver of conflict.» This warning is also directed at Switzerland, which spoke out in favor of a Sino-Brazilian peace initiative on the margins of the U.N. General Assembly at the end of September.
By pursuing such moves to bolster its neutrality, Switzerland risks undermining its strategic position instead. Kyiv has already protested in Bern because the Chinese-Brazilian proposal makes no mention of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In a global war of aggression, neutrality only benefits the aggressor. The question arises as to why Switzerland insists on being neutral – and, more importantly, toward whom?
«But this cannot be the end of the story»
The situation could become especially precarious if the war in the Middle East escalates further. An Israeli airstrike that dealt a heavy blow to Iran has sparked a heated debate: Was it a legitimate act of self-defense or a preemptive strike that skirts the boundaries of international law? The U.N. Security Council, currently under Swiss presidency, is set to address the situation one way or another.
Switzerland will not be able to remain on the sidelines. It must choose: adaptation or resistance. Upholding its own democratic, constitutional principles or turning a blind eye to injustice. Standing for a minimum of universal legal standards or bowing to the anarchic pursuit of sheer profit. For now, Switzerland can still decide where it stands.
External pressure is likely to increase. In Warsaw, several panels discussed potential sanctions against countries that support or even enable, the Russian-Chinese war effort. This could present Switzerland with a dilemma: not so much due to Russia, but because of its deep trade relations with China. In Bern, foreign policy has always been intertwined with foreign trade policy.
Ten years ago, Switzerland and China signed a free-trade agreement that has fostered economic relations on equal footing and given Switzerland a measure of independence from the EU. However, Beijing’s aggressive displays of power and the growing tensions between China and the West could hamper or even completely disrupt trade.
While larger companies have already begun to de-risk their operations, many Swiss small and medium enterprises remain active in China. They are not only protecting their investments but also maintaining personal business relationships built over years of trust. This makes it all the more problematic for the Federal Council to sit back and act as if these ties with China are without complications. Choosing freedom is painful – and it takes time.
Pawel Wodzynski / Imago
Swiss politicians would do well to take a closer look at the situation on NATO’s eastern flank. Learning from Poland means defending freedom. The very existence of the Polish state is one of the most powerful symbols against the raw force of power politics. Here, «never again» is a firm declaration against oppression and subjugation, even though the price may be high. Switzerland has grown unaccustomed to taking such resolute action.
One of the final radio messages from the Warsaw Resistance was intercepted in London: «Immortal is the nation that can muster such universal heroism.» British Prime Minister Winston Churchill shared this message of a free Poland in his memoirs. He called the failed uprising «the martyrdom of Warsaw,» adding «But this cannot be the end of the story.» That imperative still holds true today.
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Publish date : 2024-10-09 15:01:00
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