There is a word for what the European Union and the United Kingdom seem to be heading towards and it’s called a “situationship”.
Plenty has been written about everyone’s hopes for a reset of relations between Brussels and London under the new Labour government, after nearly a decade of fraught Brexit politics.
When UK prime minister Keir Starmer and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen sat down for a meeting last week, there was a recognition that a warmer relationship would not mean any dramatic rollback of the positions the EU and the UK staked out during years of painful negotiations. From Starmer’s point of view that means his government will not agree to any return to freedom of movement between the UK and EU, or consider Britain rejoining the single market or customs union.
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Brussels has been firm that any deals struck to make post-Brexit life smoother cannot unpick the withdrawal agreement and Windsor Framework previously hammered out. The commission has always said Britain could not be allowed to cherry pick the benefits of EU membership while sitting outside the club. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for either side to manoeuvre, but there is some space.
There is the potential for a deal on closer defence co-operation and an agreement to remove checks on the movement of food and livestock between Britain and the EU. The EU is pushing for a “youth mobility” scheme to allow young people move between the two, for a limited number of years. Several member states, including Ireland, are concerned about what will happen when an agreement giving EU boats access to UK fishing waters runs out in 2026.
On the British side, they are keen to talk about curbing crossings of asylum seekers in small boats from France, mutual recognition of qualifications for professions such as architecture, and the easing of restrictions on touring musicians.
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It seems the EU and the UK are heading towards what younger generations today would call a “situationship”. That’s where two people are dating, but one or both are refusing to commit to a full relationship.
So in this slightly strained analogy, Starmer might agree to a limited scheme letting young people from the EU live and work in the UK for a number of years (and vice versa), but baulk at anything that approaches a return to freedom of movement. The EU might remove border checks on food products coming from Britain, but know that the deal doesn’t mean the UK are re-entering the customs union.
A lot will depend on opinion polls and how secure Labour feels from the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform party. Some Eurosceptic elements of the British press are likely to overblow any compromise they see as giving away too much as amounting to Starmer sneaking the UK into the EU through the back door.
“My guess is in the long run we will end up with something that actually is more ambitious than you would think at the moment,” says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a British think tank.
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Grant, who was previously a journalist in Brussels, says the UK side are being extremely cautious when it comes to Europe. “Part of that is Starmer is naturally a cautious person, that’s the way he’s made,” he says. A bigger factor in the trepidation is the fact the UK government doesn’t know exactly what it wants yet, he says. “There will be a reset – whether it is minor or whether it is more ambitious is an open question.”
An element of spin will be required from the UK government to sell progress back home. “I think Labour can get away with a deal on youth mobility, if it is called ‘youth exchanges’ rather than mobility,” Grant says.
The more boring and technical the better, if Starmer is looking to avoid something blowing up politically. Deals on energy supply or removing checks on food and livestock moving between Britain and the EU would fit into that category. However, don’t be surprised if the UK prime minister still finds himself under pressure. A deal to drop veterinary checks would mean Britain signing up to follow EU food safety rules, which could be contentious.
The UK has a lot of leverage on fisheries as many EU countries need a deal to be done there, but London will require Brussels to do it favours on other issues. If one side doesn’t recognise that they will have to budge on some sensitive points to earn a bit of leeway elsewhere, the reset of relations might not get very far. Situationships can get messy very quickly.
Source link : https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2024/10/10/uk-and-eu-are-entering-a-situationship/
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Publish date : 2024-10-10 04:00:48
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