In the American foreign policy class I teach at Science Po Paris, I asked a Lithuanian student what the impact would be if a reelected Donald Trump decided to pull out of NATO. She looked me straight in the eyes and without hesitation, said, “The Russians will invade my country.” There is no telling for sure at this point who the next American president will be. The polls are close, and closer still in the handful of “swing states” that will decide the presidential elections on November 5. There is a very real possibility that Trump could prevail in the coming electoral contest. Regardless of whether or not he actually lets the Russians invade Lithuania, the impact of a second Trump presidency on Europe will be significant.
We have all certainly had a preview, of course. Trump was, after all, president for four years
already. I would argue, though, that for a variety of reasons, the first administration was nothing more than a somewhat chaotic dress rehearsal for what may be to come. This time, however, his team will be far more focused and the policy results will be far more wide-reaching. So how will a Trump presidency change your world?
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First, the United States will no longer guarantee European security. Trump has always been a NATO skeptic, and he has often questioned the value of the alliance. In a second Trump administration, we are likely to see the US make radical changes to its transatlantic security
commitments. An outright withdrawal from NATO may not be in the cards, at least right away. But Trump will almost certainly change our force posture in NATO. The Center for Renewing America, a think tank with ties to Trump, argued last year for a “dormant NATO,” a concept that has apparently gained currency in Republican policy circles.
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The “dormant NATO” idea would leave the American nuclear umbrella in place, as well as some American air and naval assets in the European theater. Otherwise, US troops would come out, and Europe would confront future military threats largely on its own. NATO is also a powerful diplomatic tool for generating Transatlantic consensus on response to shared threats. Coordinated cooperation amongst Western democracies on security issues will likely evaporate with Trump’s election. Trump policy advisors have apparently advocated for a “two-tier” NATO system, where the US only guarantees the security of states that have “fully paid their fair share.”
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In the immediate term, Trump will almost certainly abandon allied support for Ukraine. Trump has said he’d resolve the conflict overnight, presumably by pressuring Ukraine to accept the demands of the Russian aggressor. His vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, notably said in 2022, “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.”
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Source link : https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/10/14/former-us-ambassador-jeffrey-hawkins-if-trump-is-re-elected-europe-will-have-to-do-without-us-security-guarantees_6729377_23.html
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Publish date : 2024-10-14 06:47:00
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