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Keir Starmer, only weeks in office as Prime Minister, hosted nearly 50 European leaders in July at the European Political Community (EPC) summit at Blenheim Palace.
The agenda had been set by his predecessor, Rishi Sunak, but Starmer stamped the event as his own. He signalled a decisive shift of UK policy towards Europe, seated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on his right hand, and impressed European leaders with his pledge that the UK would never leave the European Convention on Human Rights.
The next EPC summit on 7 November will be a far cry from that. It will be hosted by Hungary’s President Viktor Orbán who favours Vladimir Putin over Zelensky and treats human rights and the rule of law with contempt. He has also publicly endorsed Donald Trump’s candidacy for the US Presidency.
Hungary’s far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban pictured in August 2022. Photo: ZUMA Press Inc/Alamy
The US goes to the polls on 5 November and the votes will still be being counted as European leaders meet in Budapest. Whether Kamala Harris or Trump has won might or might not be clear by then, but news of the emerging outcome could have seismic effects on proceedings at the summit.
Zelensky might choose to stay in Kiev and if he does come he won’t get a hero’s welcome from Orbán.
The EPC’s summit will be hosted by Hungary’s populist President because he is taking his turn as six-month President of the EU Council – a role the EU would have denied him if it could.
As world leaders brace themselves for another potential Trump presidency, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is quickly re-establishing the UK’s global influence
Alexandra Hall Hall
As soon as Orbán assumed office in July he outraged EU leaders by visiting Russia the US and China on a “peace mission” to settle the Ukraine war. He was rebuked for presenting his visits as official exercises in EU diplomacy, rather than the personal propaganda stunts they were.
Trump has spoken warmly about Orbán, and Orbán was rumoured to want to invite Trump to the EPC summit if the former President looked to be winning the US election.
That would be a bridge too far for most European leaders, but the chances of it happening are close to zero. While even online participation by Trump is unlikely, some governments might boycott the EPC summit if Orbán pushes them too far.
But a boycott would leave Orbán centre-stage unless there was a general walkout. Hungary’s far-right President is not a completely free agent when it comes to stage-managing the EPC, despite being host of the event.
A scandal involving a pardon to a paedophile’s accomplice has already taken down Hungary’s former justice minister, President, and the head of the Hungarian Reformed Church
Ábel Bede
Thanks to British diplomacy the EPC held at Blenheim saw the introduction of a new system for planning future summits. The country due to host the next one co-organises it with the last host country and the next two host countries. This system is based on the practice of the G20 and the EU, and has been advocated by this writer since the first summit.
And so a “quartet” of countries have been involved in planning the Budapest summit, made up of past host the UK, plus future hosts Albania and Denmark, in addition to Hungary, which is undeniably in the driving seat. Like the UK, Albania and Denmark are strong supporters of Ukraine against Russian aggression.
The UK and Denmark have recently led a diplomatic offensive to persuade President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use NATO-donated weapons for deep strikes into Russia to destroy bases used to launch attacks on its infrastructure and civilian population.
There are 245 key Russian facilities Ukraine could strike today. It has the capabilities, but not the permission. Why deny them?
Paul Niland
The weapons at the heart of this debate are UK/French Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and approval from the US, France and the US is required.
President Emmanuel Macron has publicly agreed and Keir Starmer has privately agreed, but Biden hasn’t.
The sticking point for Biden is US intelligence which claims that deep strikes could lead to serious Russian retaliation against the US and its allies and that deep strikes would not be a game-changer anyway. But balance of risk assessments are political as well as military judgment-calls, and they can change with circumstances.
A Harris win in November could lead to a reconsideration of the deep-strike issue by Biden even before a take-over by Harris in January.
The EPC summit in Budapest comes at a watershed moment. If it unfolds against the backdrop of news from the US that Harris is winning, then the great majority of European leaders who back Ukraine in its struggle against Russia and its aspiration to join the EU will be encouraged and emboldened. There would be expressions of goodwill towards Harris and renewed expressions of support for Ukraine.
Orbán would do his best to rain on that parade but he would be almost isolated. Almost, but not quite, because fellow populist and leader of the Czech Republic Robert Fico shares Orbán’s pro-Russian and anti-Ukraine sentiments.
If European leaders arrive in Budapest to news that Trump is likely to win, it is Orbán who will be emboldened. He has refused to support military aid to Ukraine from the EU or NATO, though he has stopped short of finally blocking their decisions by absenting himself from meetings.
Hungarians are being encouraged to fix problems themselves at a local level and it is having results
Ábel Bede
Trump would force a “peace” settlement on Ukraine that would mean the surrender of Ukrainian territory. Harris has slammed proposals to “force Ukraine to give up large parts of sovereign territory” and said they were not “proposals for peace” but rather “for surrender”.
For Europe’s NATO allies, the prospect of a Trump win would present a brutal dilemma about how to reconcile their commitments to back Ukraine with their need to work as closely as possible with him as the leader of the NATO alliance.
For Orbán there would be an unmissable opportunity to grandstand on Trump’s victory and plans for “peace” in Ukraine and to take the conduct of the EPC summit in directions which the UK and other European leaders could not tolerate.
Starmer’s role would be a prominent one, but tricky too. He recently welcomed President Zelenksy to Downing Street and pledged support “today and always”. But the UK’s special relationship with the US is a mix of close alliance and dependence (from intelligence to US servicing of Trident missiles), and Starmer would want to preserve it at almost any cost.
An appeal, backed by prospective Labour MPs and members of the Trade Union Movement, has identified a number of key changes it wants a Starmer-led government to make to ensure that Ukraine wins the war
Steve Hopkins
If Trump is winning, European leaders will find a useful ally against Orbán in Italy’s populist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She is fiercely pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin and yet has been making friends close to Trump.
She has made a big impression on Elon Musk, though he has denied a romantic relationship. She could be a key player in closing the gap between Trump’s policy of appeasing Putin and Europe’s support for Ukraine. This writer has speculated about the shape of a possible compromise between Trump and Europe’s NATO allies here.
Whatever the emerging outcome in the US Presidential race, Ukraine’s allies need to arrive in Budapest prepared to counter Orbán’s self-serving and Putin-serving propaganda, and to walk out if necessary.
Orbán will do whatever he can to undermine the EU, NATO and Ukraine. The likes of Starmer, Macron and Meloni must be ready to steal his thunder.
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Publish date : 2024-10-15 02:21:00
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