COLOGNE, GERMANY – JUNE 15: The shirts of Michel Aebischer, Remo Freuler, Granit Xhaka and Ricardo … [+] Rodriguez are displayed inside the Switzerland dressing room prior to the UEFA EURO 2024 group stage match against Hungary at Cologne Stadium on June 15, 2024. (Photo by Ryan Pierse – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)
UEFA via Getty Images
England fans of a certain age will remember the opening match of Euro ’96, a dour 1-1 draw against Switzerland. England took the lead in that game through Alan Shearer but were pegged back by a late penalty for a damp start to their home tournament.
An iconic moment of individual genius from Paul Gascoigne in the following game against Scotland was the spark that got the country going, and England fans will be hoping that Jude Bellingham’s last-minute bicycle kick against Slovakia is the spark that wakes them up from their slumber so far at Euro 2024.
But Switzerland are a far better team than anyone England have faced so far and have a great chance of recording their first win against the Three Lions since 1981.
The Swiss could well be this tournament’s surprise package.
Switzerland absolutely dominated Italy for large spells of their last-16 match and won the match comfortably, stifling Italy’s build-up play with their constant pressing and organization.
That came after an impressive group stage where only a late Germany goal prevented the Swiss from finishing top of Group A.
There aren’t many stats that correlate with success, but one useful metric is known as ‘packing’. This is the number of defenders bypassed minus the number of times your own defenders are bypassed.
Out of all the teams at the UEFA 2024 European Championship, Switzerland were third best for this statistic, behind Belgium and Spain. They bypassed defenders more times than any other team in the group stage, averaging 62 bypassed defenders per game, showing how often they can get the ball into their forwards in good positions, but they suffered 50 bypassed defenders per game.
Switzerland have some similarities to the Croatian side that beat Southgate’s England in the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup. They have lots of experience in key areas, and they have a central midfield that can dominate the game.
At the start of last season, not many people expected Bayer Leverkusen to challenge for the Bundesliga title, let alone go the entire season undefeated. A large part of that success was down to Swiss captain Granit Xhaka. The midfielder rarely loses the ball, makes a lot of key passes and through balls, and has only lost two soccer games for club or country in the past year.
Switzerland seem to have the right mix of experience and just enough quality.
They’re not household names, but all of the Swiss starting eleven against Italy play in Europe’s big five leagues and nine have Champions League experience. The spine of their team of Xhaka, goalkeeper Yann Sommer and defender Manuel Akanji all won their respective leagues. And with a core of players in their early thirties, augmented by some pacey younger attackers like Dan Ndoye, the Swiss team has a huge number of international caps.
In international soccer, constant chopping-and-changing can mean players fail to reach the levels they hit for their club sides. Phil Foden for England being a prime example this tournament.
Switzerland’s midfield duo of Xhaka and Remo Freuler have played together for Switzerland 59 times. England’s likely midfield pair of Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo have spent 311 minutes on the pitch together.
Switzerland’s midfielders #10 Granit Xhaka (L) and #08 Remo Freuler have played together 59 times. … [+] (Photo by ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Switzerland’s squad as a whole, the fourth-oldest at the Euros, contains eleven players with 50 or more caps. Italy only have four players and England six players with 50 or more caps.
Research suggests it takes several seasons for players to reach their best form after joining a new club and that strong squad cohesion was what allowed Iceland and Wales to punch above their weight in Euro 2016, and why England under one-time Switzerland head coach Roy Hodgson underperformed in that tournament.
Switzerland have better players overall than Iceland and Wales did in 2016, and their experience, and the understanding between players that comes from playing many games together, means they can get the most out of that talent.
England’s team might have roughly four times the value of Switzerland’s side according to CIES Football Observatory, but Switzerland’s cohesion makes them more than the sum of their parts.
Source link : https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveprice/2024/07/01/the-statistics-that-show-why-switzerland-are-euro-2024-dark-horses/
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Publish date : 2024-07-01 07:00:00
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