Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics (left) meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on November 24.
RFE/RL: Do you ever see Putin agreeing to that?
Rinkevics: That’s where we are going to the second part of my answer, where I say that it’s very easy to answer and difficult to deliver. And yes, this year is going to be difficult — difficult in the way that we are not delivering enough, we know that. And yes, we are ramping up the defense industry; there are [things] that are good. We are also going to see to it that Ukraine receives more sophisticated weapons also throughout this year.
But I think that the only way Russia can start to talk about the end of hostilities and agreeing to the peace formula is if they understand that they can’t advance anymore and that they are losing ground and, to some extent, that their own internal stability of the regime is threatened. And that is where, if I am asked the time line, I wouldn’t be able to give it, and a lot depends on Ukrainians and on us.
RFE/RL: I won’t ask you about the time line, but I will ask you about whether there is willingness in the West to do that.
Rinkevics: All my colleagues with whom I was speaking understand that, at this point, this is a very complex issue. There is an example of 2008 Georgia; there is an example [from] 2014 [with] Crimea and Donbas. And there is an example also of subversive actions when it comes to our own election process [in Latvia] back in 2016-17. We see also the attempts to intimidate, maybe, in countries like Moldova — you name it.
But there is this difficulty [in] that we as leaders are trying to find the right way to talk with our publics. Why? Because there is a bit of fatigue. If you switch on the TV or you look at news sites, you see “Ukraine war.” Some people still continue watching, [others] simply move to something else. We do have this very complex situation in the Middle East, which also has taken a toll on the global community. And then, of course, you understand that if there is a stalemate, then Russia can regroup, and then you have to honestly tell your public that you have to be prepared for all kinds of scenarios.
I myself am saying that we should not approach the current situation with [a] sense of gloom and doom, but we have to be prepared [for] all kinds of scenarios. And also, back home, it requires some effort to mobilize [the] civil [defenses]. It has to be reconfigured according to the experience from Ukraine, or more defense spending, or the establishment of conscription, or building the Baltic defense line. We have plenty of work to do.
RFE/RL: On that note, recently, some Scandinavian countries told their people that it’s not an unrealistic possibility that Russia will try to launch an attack against them in three to five years’ time. Suppose you go out in Riga and tell that to the Latvian population, what would the reaction be?
Rinkevics: First of all, the Latvian population is smart enough to read all the news and [hear about] everything that either I or the foreign minister or the defense minister or any high-level officials are saying to them — or [what] any admirals or high-level officials of any [other] countries are saying. So that eventuality is being counted [on].
But you know, probably for us, some of those discoveries that we hear from other capitals in the West, that discovery is not anything new. We knew that Russia is getting more and more belligerent. We saw what is happening in Georgia, in Ukraine. We saw what is happening in our neighboring Belarus in 2021 when, with the assistance of President Putin, [Belarusian President Alyaksandr] Lukashenka was suppressing unrest. So, this is not anything that I would say is new.
But having said that, I see that there is a need to somehow tell the public that, first of all, we need to spend more on security, including both defense and internal security. Yes, we have to work with our allies. Yes, we don’t have anything better than NATO. But at the same time, we also should not approach this as a fact. So probably for us, it’s a bit of a different narrative than for some of those countries that even a couple of years ago were saying that it’s not imaginable, it’s impossible. Now everything is possible.
And we should understand that when we are past this phase, that we acknowledge the problem, that we start to address it. And the solution is more defense industry, more defense spending.
RFE/RL: Ukrainian President Zelenskiy warned of the dangers to Poland and to the Baltics. With that in mind, and with Russia’s known tactics of “passportization” and using Russian-speaking populations in other countries for aggression, how concerned are you that that could be a threat in Latvia, with its rather sizable Russian-speaking minority?
Rinkevics: We do take some of the security challenges…seriously. And that’s why there has been legislation passed [for] a more rigorous vetting process. And at the same time, I would say that we were also well aware of some of those tactics long in advance. We have seen [widespread] attempts to issue Russian passports 10 years ago, when we were introducing our social-security system reform, raising the pension age. Suddenly all those people who took Russian passports and refused the Latvian [passports], the noncitizens, understood that actually life is not as nice as it seems. I would say that, to some extent, this situation is a bit different than it used to be, or than it still is in Georgia or Ukraine.
Rinkevics inspects the Latvia-Russia border near Lidumnieki in August.
RFE/RL: For the better?
Rinkevics: I would say it’s not for the better, it’s just different. Indeed, we also addressed some of those concerns, and we are talking with those people who live in Latvia and are not speaking Latvian as their native language. If you look at opinion polls, they present a very interesting picture: There is about a quarter [of those not using Latvian as their native language] supporting Ukraine; a quarter are supporting Mr. Putin; and the rest is either not giving an exact answer or saying they are confused. Of course, it would be very wise to try to understand how they are confused and why they are not answering the question.
I would say that we take this issue seriously, too. But I would also say that, unlike in some other countries, you don’t have very compact parts, especially in parts of Latvia where there are only, let’s say, Russian speakers; it’s a bit more [of a] complex picture. But nevertheless, I do believe also that seeing what’s happening in Ukraine, many of those who would probably support Putin and how great he is and what he does somewhere else, they wouldn’t be very happy to see missiles flying into their own apartment, or drones flying into their own apartment. I think that this needs to be taken into account.
RFE/RL: How do you see coexistence with Russia, in general, in the future? Let’s say there’s a cease-fire or some kind of settlement. Do you ever see yourself going to Russia? What kind of welcome or reception would you expect?
Rinkevics: It’s impossible to imagine that during my mandate I would be going to Russia or receiving any Russian official. I don’t think it’s going to happen…. I don’t believe that, even with the best possible scenario that we’re talking about in this interview, that we are going to see Russia changing in a radical way for democracy, where human rights and rule of law would be expected. The whole history of Russia shows that, yes, there are waves. There are waves when they turn to the West and they want to be like the West. They never quite get there.
RFE/RL: That’s the thing about the waves, they come and go.
Rinkevics: Yes. Now we are in the wave where Russia is completely turning away from being part of Western civilization with all the elements we know. But that wave is also going to disappear. My concern [at] this point would be that if Russia feels that it has won, it will try its luck; if Russia feels that it has lost but the current regime continues to be in power, then there will be a kind of humiliation and probably there will be an attempt to somehow correct the mistake. So, like it or not, we are going to face in the next years, or maybe decades, living next to a very unpredictable, dangerous country….
RFE/RL: I want to ask you about this enduring reluctance of the so-called Old West to see Russia from the perspective that the Baltics or Poland or Eastern Europeans in general see it. Even when history seemingly proves that your way of seeing Russia is right.
Rinkevics: To some extent, I think that the last two years showed that we are getting closer, but we have not met each other yet. I think that we are getting closer, because there is an understanding that in the 21st century, Russia can use very brutal means to launch a war; Russia can kill innocent civilians. But I think that there are also two other elements that I’m trying to understand when I’m talking with [our] Western counterparts.
One is that we still have a bit [of a] different history. Most of Western Europe was under Nazi occupation, it got liberated, [and] Germany became one of the leading global and European powers — a completely great success story. We got another 50 years of Soviet occupation that ended relatively recently — only 33 years ago. And that’s why we have those kinds of memories.
Second, I think that everyone was so excited that the Cold War was over, and there was this kind of very wishful thinking that is very difficult to get rid of. And then finally, let’s not forget that there are also many other pressing issues for many bigger or smaller European countries. Russia is part of the UN Security Council; it has global reach, and, to some extent, I think that there is this kind of feeling that, if [Russia were] properly [addressed], you could probably get some kind of deal. I don’t believe that.
I see that all the deals are honored by Russia only if they believe they serve their interests. As soon as it’s over, they break them — be it Ukraine, be it Georgia, be it any other international treaty they have signed throughout the last 30 years.
Source link : https://www.rferl.org/a/latvia-president-rinkevics-ukraine-putin-russia-war-interview/32828001.html
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Publish date : 2024-02-20 08:00:00
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