Kremlin’s hybrid war overshadows Moldova’s EU referendum

Kremlin’s hybrid war overshadows Moldova’s EU referendum

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Last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tabled a €1.8 billion financing package, the largest EU funding to Moldova since its independence, to support the country’s path towards EU membership.

Once approved, Moldova will receive tranches of cash every six months, conditional on implementing key judicial and economic reforms.

The ‘full playbook’ of hybrid warfare

But the bloc knows it is grappling with a rival in Russia that is exploring a full range of hybrid warfare techniques to destabilise the country.

Ahead of the 20 October vote, Moscow has targeted its information war at the citizens of Moldova, using social platforms to sow distrust in the EU and delegitimise President Sandu.

Research agency Check Point recently unveiled a campaign dubbed “Operation MiddleFloor” directed at Moldovan civil servants in which counterfeit documents spread false claims about EU accession and aim to gather personal data of recipients to set the stage for malware attacks.

Ursula von der Leyen, left, and Maia Sandu, right – Dati Bendo/CCE

The campaign matches the Kremlin’s pattern of weaponising minorities to divide societies. A document purporting to come from the European Commission claims the LGBTQ+ flag would be hoisted from ministry buildings on 12 days of the year if Moldova were to become an EU member state.

Another counterfeit email claims the Moldovan government is introducing a new decree to “attract migrants from the Middle East to compensate for the losses on the labour market.”

Moldova is no stranger to hybrid attacks aimed at getting the former Soviet republic back under Moscow’s influence.

In September 2022, as the country reeled from the effects of an energy crisis provoked by Russia’s war in Ukraine, protests fanned by the now outlawed, pro-Russian Șor party piled pressure on the pro-EU government of Maia Sandu. It later emerged that protesters had been paid by Kremlin proxies to attend.

The Kremlin’s activities are concentrated around key electoral events, making the Sunday ballot vulnerable to interference.

“Russia has been trying to undermine the modernisation and the reform processes in the Republic of Moldova for 30 years,” Mureșan explained, adding that in recent years however it has “failed to hold Moldova back on its European integration course.”

Sandu, who was elected president in December 2020, has made Moldova’s EU integration the core tenet of her mandate.

She currently leads the polls at around 30% of the voting intention but could face a tough reckoning if the vote goes into a second round, where her opponent could rally voters to block her re-election.

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Publish date : 2024-10-16 14:19:00

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