EU leaders are worried about a surge in undocumented migrants as more Africans head to Mauritania and attempt to enter Europe via the Canary Islands.
×In a nutshell
A rise in unregulated immigration to Europe alarms Brussels
The sea route from Mauritania to Spain’s Canary archipelago is busy
The EU has launched a multi-pronged attempt to tackle the problem
Mauritania has once again become a crucial departure point for migrants risking the treacherous Atlantic journey to Spain’s Canary Islands, capturing renewed attention from the European Union. This small West African nation is witnessing a significant uptick in migrants using its shores as a launchpad for their quest to reach Europe through the Spanish archipelago, with many tragically losing their lives along the way.
The period between January and March 2024 saw a significant surge in undocumented migration to the Canary Islands, with over 12,393 migrants arriving compared to just 2,178 during the same period the previous year. This alarming increase underscores the growing role of Mauritania as a transit route for migrants despite the inherent dangers associated with the sea passage. This trend persists even in light of a recent financial agreement between the EU and Mauritania aimed at reducing migrant arrivals.
The Sahel is currently experiencing one of the most complex upheavals in its history
Mauritania’s turbulent neighborhood
The country’s location accounts for part of the story. Positioned in the western end of the Sahel, Mauritania lies between Mali and the Atlantic Ocean, bordered on the north by Western Sahara (a territory claimed by Morocco, with Algeria supporting its independence) and Senegal to its south. The Sahel is currently experiencing one of the most complex upheavals in its history, marked by numerous military coups affecting several countries: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad and Sudan. Peace remains elusive at the gates of the Sahara.
×Facts & figures
From Mauritania to Spain
Mauritania also connects the Maghreb with the rest of Africa. Freed from French rule in the 1960s, the country was governed mainly by a military oligarchy with an Islamic regime, which kept it on the periphery of international politics for many years. It was only in the new millennium that Mauritania began to cautiously engage with its neighbors and Europe, culminating in the Cotonou Agreement (2000-2023), which was later succeeded by the Samoa Agreement signed in November 2023. This comprehensive treaty governs the EU’s relations with African, Caribbean and Pacific states, establishing shared principles in areas such as democracy, human rights, security, social and economic development, environment, climate change and migration.
The EU’s heightened interest
Over the years, numerous European leaders have visited Mauritania, fostering cordial relations even during the military coups of 2005 and 2008. The goal has been to counter the growing threat of jihadist terrorism within the country.
However, Europe’s primary concern remains curtailing migration flows. In March 2024, European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson visited Mauritania’s capital, Nouakchott, to launch a “partnership and dialogue on migration.” She signed a joint declaration with Mauritanian Minister of Interior Mohamed Ould Lemine, which established a partnership that includes substantial humanitarian aid, amounting to 210 million euros for Mauritania over the coming years.
×Facts & figures
The EU-Mauritania partnership aims to:
Create new job opportunities for youth and women through investments
Protect and provide asylum for refugees
Promote regular migration and foster integration on European soil
Combat irregular migration and human trafficking
Improve border management, including working with Frontex
The agreement followed a dramatic rise in migration, with 7,270 people from West Africa attempting to land on the Canary Islands in January 2024 – a 1,000 percent increase from the previous year. However, three months after its signing, the situation had not significantly improved, as 1,800 more arrivals were recorded in the first two weeks of April. That brought the total landings for the first half of 2024 to nearly 19,000, accounting for 78.5 percent of all irregular entries into Spain during that period.
The most alarming consequence of the surge in migration is the sharp increase in fatalities. From January to June 2024, at least 5,054 people, including women and children, lost their lives attempting the dangerous sea crossing.
Migrants’ ocean route
The Atlantic route to the Canary Islands is nothing new. As early as the 1980s, thousands of African migrants, primarily from Guinea, Mali, Ivory Coast, Gambia and Mauritania, attempted the risky trek from the Atlantic beaches of Senegal and Mauritania. Over the following decades, migration routes shifted within Africa, with the notorious Niger-Libya, Burkina Faso-Algeria-Libya, Ethiopia-Sudan-Libya and Egypt-Libya routes gaining prominence. That was due to the fact that Mediterranean crossing is significantly shorter, even if one had to cross much desert before reaching its shores. But migration is an ever-changing phenomenon and lately, the trend has shifted again.
Mauritania has not experienced any jihadist terrorist attacks since 2011, and this stability is a crucial strategic factor for its partners.
Several factors contribute to this, including the harsh conditions of desert crossings and the brutal realities of Libyan prisons, as well as new agreements between European and African nations such as Libya, Tunisia and Egypt that have made it harder to cross there. Notably, the increase in ocean migration contrasted with a 60 percent drop in landings on Italian shores in the first half of 2024.
Mauritania’s domestic politics
Mauritania, with a population of 4.9 million (nearly three-quarters of whom are under 35), has faced recurring political instability, including six successful or attempted military coups since 1980. In the June 2024 presidential election, incumbent Mohamed Ould Ghazouani secured a second term with over 56 percent of the vote, despite accusations of fraud by opponents.
As is typical for leaders in the Maghreb-Sahel area, President Ghazouani (aged 67) has a military background. However, he has established good relations with neighboring countries and the EU.
Mauritania has not experienced any jihadist terrorist attacks since 2011, and this stability is a crucial strategic factor for its partners. Nouakchott was home to the now-defunct G5 Sahel, a regional organization uniting Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad. In 2010, Mauritania’s stringent anti-terrorism law came into force, empowering military units to combat active terrorist cells. Its Islamic society has assisted in the effort.
Foreign factors
For years now, Moscow has been expanding its influence across the Mediterranean, primarily through Africa, operating on two fronts: political and economic (official) and military and security (unofficial), often utilizing private military contractors. This dual strategy, coupled with aggressive disinformation tactics, has contributed to the disengagement of Western Europe and the United States from several countries governed by coup juntas. Mauritania may be the next target for Russian influence, as evidenced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit in February 2023 – the first in over 50 years – following similar trips to Morocco, Tunisia and Mali. This visit likely aimed not only to improve conditions for Russian fishermen in Mauritanian waters, but also to bolster support against terrorist cells operating in the Gulf of Guinea.
Read more on the situation in the Sahel
Russia and Europe are not the only players interested in Mauritania. China and Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are also keenly engaged. Between 2022 and 2023, China’s President Xi Jinping met with President Ghazouani twice to sign cooperation agreements and provide national debt relief of $21 million, partly thanks to Mauritania’s membership, since 2018, in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
The number of migrants to Europe will likely increase, even if their country of departure is not Mauritania.
NATO, for its part, has activated military collaborations aimed at territorial control and training local security forces in Mauritania. The country’s invitation to the Madrid summit in June 2022 underscored this commitment, followed by the August 2024 series of agreements with Spain to stem the surge in migrants. The World Bank Group emphasizes the need to “maximize the return on human capital in Mauritania for increased wealth and shared prosperity.” This highlights the root causes of migration that the country is grappling with: the lack of investment in youth and educational facilities, compounded by ongoing conflict and climate change.
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Scenarios
Before considering any scenarios, it is essential to acknowledge that conditions in Africa are unlikely to improve in the immediate future due to escalating conflicts and the immediate impacts of climate change. Consequently, many experts expect the number of migrants to rise, initially moving within the continent and later seeking extra-continental travel. It is also important to note that the number of migrants to Europe will likely increase, even if their country of departure is not Mauritania.
Very unlikely: The EU’s deal signed with Mauritania works
The Mauritanian government, closely monitored by European experts, is expected to effectively manage the allocated funds from the EU without waste. This effort aims not only to curb irregular immigration but also to invest in the country’s youth and infrastructure despite initial public opposition.
The success of this initiative could significantly enhance the quality of life for Mauritanian citizens, providing economic and social benefits. Such improvements could also benefit neighboring countries facing similar challenges, such as Mali. Furthermore, this success would demonstrate that the European approach is more effective than the narratives put forward by Russian anti-Western propaganda.
Nearly certain: The deal does not work
The formalization of the 210 million-euro treaty with the EU has sparked a significant backlash among the Mauritanian public, who are unwilling to manage a migrant blockade on behalf of Brussels. In response, the local government has had to reassure the population, as internal tensions and polarization pose a threat to social stability. There is considerable uncertainty about whether the agreement will be implemented. Historical precedents indicate that such agreements often fail to benefit local communities. Instead, they typically enrich rulers and warlords, as evidenced by the situation in Libya over the past decade.
The likely consequences of this scenario are clear: Funds may end up in the wrong hands, leading to increased corruption without improving living conditions for citizens. This discontent could push some individuals toward extremism, exacerbating an already precarious situation.
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Source link : https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/mauritania-migrant-eu-atlantic-route/
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Publish date : 2024-10-16 06:00:00
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