Additionally, SOCAR is actively working to develop natural gas exports. From September 1, 2024, the company began to export gas to Croatia. This Balkan state became the tenth country to receive Azerbaijani gas. In addition to Croatia, natural gas supplies from the Caspian region go towards Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Serbia, Slovenia, Türkiye and Georgia.
As stated by President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani side is in talks to supply gas to at least three more European countries. Overall, Azerbaijan’s natural gas exports towards Europe are expected to double by 2027. In 2024, Europe is expected to receive 13 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas.
At the same time, according to Bloomberg, the European gas storage facilities are full, and gas transit through Ukraine’s gas transmission system currently accounts for less than 5% of the total volume of supplies to the continent. But, for some countries, such as Slovakia and Austria, the new sources of imports may result in higher prices, which their politicians do not like.
Benefits, risks and concerns
In Ukraine, some experts express concerns about the possibility of mixing Azerbaijani gas with Russian gas in the event of signing a transit agreement, or even a ‘documentary’ replacement, when the gas is listed as Azerbaijani in documents but, in fact, comes physically from Russian fields. However, such a risk can be avoided if there is a clear technological control over the origin of natural gas for transit purposes.
Meanwhile, a potential agreement on the transit of Azerbaijani gas can bring geopolitical benefits to Ukraine. In addition to revenues from the transit itself, this will strengthen partnership relations with a number of states and, overall, Ukraine’s influence on the energy map of the continent. Transit can also be used as a lever of influence in the geopolitical arena, which in the conditions of Russian aggression will be a good practice for Ukraine.
And there is one more nuance. With no gas transit operations from 2025, Ukraine will have to seek funds elsewhere for maintaining its extensive gas transmission system, which is billions of hryvnias per annum. Amid the war, it will be difficult, because the funding priority is the army. In this regard, the replacement of Russian gas with Azerbaijani one will allow Ukraine to obtain the funds, which are needed to maintain its gas transmission system.
Maryna Nychyporenko, Kyiv
Photo: Facebook
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Publish date : 2024-10-18 03:59:00
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