US backing is crucial if Zelenskyy is to get support from other allies for proposals he believes are necessary to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and ahead of any peace negotiations. But analysts say the Biden administration is unlikely to make a decision before the US presidential election on November 5, as it may not appeal to voters.
Analysts said the plan is a step in the right direction for Ukraine’s military efforts. They also described it as ambitious, given allies’ fears of escalation with nuclear-armed Russia. Ukraine has previously secured Western support for requests once deemed unrealistic, such as Patriot air defence systems and F-16 jets.
Zelenskiy is expecting a response to the plan from the White House. (AP PHOTO)
After returning from making his case to the European Council, Zelenskiy said he expects the White House to provide feedback.
“They will be here soon with some form of response,” he said.
Will the plan bring victory to Ukraine?
Zelenskiy laid out the five-point plan as Ukraine’s troops struggle to hold back Russian slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine. The plan includes three “secret annexes” that were presented only to some leaders. It also addresses partners’ concerns about Ukraine’s strategy after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive.
Zelenskiy described the main goal as “to strengthen us and force Russia to come to the negotiating table with all partners.”
The plan won’t immediately alter the battlefield situation, but it will help Ukraine wear down Russia and give more means to keep going in the attrition war.
“I think people were potentially expecting some sort of more operational plan on winning the war,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads Sibylline, a strategic advisory firm.
“That’s a naive opinion to have expected a plan to have provided operational details that would obviously be of use to the enemy.”
US reaction was muted and non-committal, though it did issue a new $US425 million ($A634 million) package of security assistance for Ukraine the day that Zelenskiy presented the plan to lawmakers.
“It’s not my position to publicly evaluate his plan,” Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said. “We have been supporting him by providing security assistance in a major way for two-and-a-half years. We are going to continue to do that.”
US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin was non-committal about the Ukraine proposal. (EPA PHOTO)
In Europe, reactions ranged from categorical opposition to strong support.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated on Saturday that he will work with Ukrainian officials to rally other nations to get behind the proposal.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stood by his refusal to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv.
“Our position is clear: We are supporting Ukraine as strongly as possible,” he said. “At the same time, we are taking care that NATO does not become a party to the war so that this war doesn’t culminate in an even bigger catastrophe.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, widely seen as having the warmest relations of any EU leader with Russian President Vladimir Putin, called Zelenskiy’s plan “more than frightening” in a Facebook post.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov mocked Zelenskiy’s plan as “ephemeral,” and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called it “a set of incoherent slogans.”
Without an invitation to join NATO, Ukraine won’t have an “assurance that its geopolitical future will not be a bargaining chip with Russia,” said Ukrainian analyst Hlib Voloskyi.
Ukrainian officials say there are no other guarantees for Ukraine besides NATO to protect against Russia’s aggression after the war.
Without Western support, Ukraine will struggle to endure a protracted war with Russia, backed by North Korea, Iran, and China. If Ukraine falls, it will be forced to negotiate on Russia’s terms.
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Publish date : 2024-10-19 14:30:00
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