The UK’s jobless rate and how it compares globally

The rate is extra-low for numerous reasons, including the ageing population (with retiring Baby Boomers shrinking the workforce), the large proportion of part-time jobs, and the booming jobs market. However, it also reflects the way Switzerland calculates its jobless figure, as the country only takes into account the number of citizens registered with official employment centres, according to Swiss news organisation SWI swissinfo.ch.

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Mirroring the global trend, Japan’s unemployment rate has more or less returned to its pre-pandemic figure.

With the jobs market especially tight, the country is currently experiencing a critical labour shortage, mainly due to its falling birth rate and rapidly ageing population. There simply aren’t enough people to fill vacancies, and the situation is set to worsen significantly in the coming years. As per the BBC, firms are embracing AI and advanced robotics to make up the shortfall, and the government has launched initiatives to attract foreign workers.

Mexico has long boasted a very low official unemployment rate – and it’s only getting lower. The 2.8% recorded in April is below the 3.5% pre-COVID-19 figure and the lowest rate since 2001.

Talking last year to the Mexico Business News website, economist Luis Monroy-Gómez-Franco puts the nation’s low rate down to three characteristics of the Mexican labour market: cheap labour, the existence of a large informal jobs market, and the lack of unemployment benefits.

Post-Soviet era, Russia’s rate of joblessness hit a record low in April. It stood at 4.6% before the pandemic and was as high as 13% in 1999.

The modest figure is mostly due to the country’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. The government’s massive military spending has revived the ailing Russian economy. At the same time, the mobilisation of working-age men and the country’s ongoing brain drain have hollowed out the labour force, and there aren’t enough people to fill the multitude of vacant roles.

The German economy hasn’t been in the best shape over the past couple of years, but the country’s unemployment rate was just 3.3% in April. While this is higher than the pre-pandemic figure of 3% recorded in 2019, the number is historically low. Back in 2005, for example, it was 11%. So, what’s going on?

Rather than reflecting a buoyant economy, the low figure chiefly stems from what’s been dubbed the Baby Boomer Bust, a trend playing out in economies worldwide. With the generation retiring in their droves, Germany’s working-age population is decreasing markedly. By 2035, it’s expected to be down by up to six million compared to 2018, according to Internationale Politik, the country’s leading foreign affairs magazine.

Malaysia’s unemployment rate is among the lowest globally and has remained stable throughout the 21st century. Increased investment is supporting the jobs market, as per the nation’s Business Times newspaper, but youth unemployment is on the rise.

In fact, the number of 15 to 24 year olds out of work climbed to 10.6% at the end of 2023. According to broadcaster Channel News Asia, the increase in young people who can’t find work is leading to a brain drain, mostly to Singapore, which could adversely affect the country’s economy going forward, while the government spending required to address the issue could strain its fiscal position.

The rate of unemployment in the Netherlands is historically low and remains under the pre-COVID-19 figure of 4.4%, though it is trending upwards. This is partly because the nation is experiencing a severe labour shortage, exacerbated by its ageing population.

Moreover, according to the IMF, the Netherlands is a global leader in part-time work. This goes a long way towards explaining its low unemployment rate, as does the relatively large proportion of temporary roles and self-employment in the country.

Unemployment has been creeping up in the US lately, but the 4% recorded in April is among the lowest in American history and not far off the 2019 pre-pandemic number of 3.7%. It’s projected to peak at 4.3% in 2026 and fall back to 4.1% by 2029.

Like many other nations, the US is experiencing a pronounced labour shortage. The US Chamber of Commerce traces this to the country’s ageing population, the large number of early retirements, and a long-term decline in net immigration. These have been compounded by other factors such as the lack of quality affordable childcare, which prevents parents, particularly mothers, from joining or returning to the workforce.

Australia’s unemployment rate was 5.2% in 2019. It dropped to record lows post-pandemic as a result of strong jobs growth and the sharp decline in immigration during 2020 and 2021 when the nation closed its borders.

The rate has since edged up, increasing from 3.7% last year to 4.2% in April, as the employment market has loosened and immigration has risen. However, the number remains historically low. Other factors contributing to the low rate include the recent considerable growth in government jobs, as well as the inadequacy of unemployment benefits in the country.

Though higher than the pre-COVID-19 figure of 3.9%, which was the lowest in decades, the UK’s unemployment rate is still historically low at 4.2% as of July. The number is forecast to drop to 4% by 2026 and stay there for the rest of the decade.

The UK jobs market has been remarkably resilient post-pandemic. That said, inactivity is high in the country. In June, as many as 9.41 million people – a staggering 22.2% of the working-age population – were out of action due mostly to poor health. Given these economically inactive people aren’t counted in the unemployment figure, the UK’s low jobless number may not be as good as it appears.

Ireland’s unemployment rate is also historically low. In April it stood at 4.4%, down from the 5% recorded pre-pandemic in 2019 and massively below the 15.5% recorded in 2012 when the country’s economy faltered.

The Irish economy has been booming post-pandemic and thanks to the government’s strong fiscal position, which is leading to increased investment in infrastructure and housing, the jobs market is likely to remain strong.

The joblessness rate in New Zealand was 5% in April. In contrast to many other countries, this number is significantly above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 figure of 4.1% and the post-pandemic low of 3.3%, which was recorded in 2022.

As per public service broadcaster RNZ, the recent spike in unemployment has been driven by a cooling demand for workers amid a struggling economy and soaring immigration. The rise in joblessness is disproportionally affecting young people, with workers aged between 15 and 24 making up half of the newly unemployed.

China’s unemployment rate was 5.1% in April, slightly lower than its pre-pandemic figure of 5.2%. However, youth unemployment has become a major problem in the country.

The rate of joblessness among young people between 16 and 24 continues to shoot up. It hit a high of 18.8% in August, up from 14.7% in April. This excessive rate, which doesn’t bode well for China’s future, is fuelled by a range of factors. These include the country’s struggling economy, restrictive hiring policies, an overabundance of university graduates, and the ‘lie-flat’ trend, with young people increasingly railing against the nation’s ultra-demanding 9-9-6 work culture, which expects professionals to toil away from 9am to 9pm six days a week.

As of April, the unemployment rate in the Philippines has returned to the pre-pandemic figure of 5.1% recorded in 2019. This is just above the magic 5%, which represents maximum employment.

This near record-low number reflects the country’s robust economy, according to Labour Secretary Bienvenido Laguesma, but underemployment is nonetheless a huge issue in the Philippines. At the last count, more than a whopping six million Filipinos were classed as underemployed – basically in need of extra hours or another job to make ends meet – and the number is unfortunately rising.

Austria’s unemployment figure is above the number that denotes maximum employment and was higher in April than in 2019, when it stood at 4.8%.

Unlike the aforementioned countries, the problem in Austria is that there aren’t enough suitable jobs to go around, with the trade and construction industry most affected, according to Arbeit&Wirtschaft magazine. Younger people are bearing the brunt of this, with youth unemployment spiking.

The Canadian unemployment rate was also higher in April than it was pre-pandemic – in 2019, it came in at 5.7%. Based on IMF predictions, it isn’t expected to fall below 6% this decade.

Interestingly, the country’s rate of joblessness is being driven in large part by delays in graduates finding work, and not as a consequence of layoffs. In fact, these longer job searches have been responsible for up to 80% of the increase in unemployment among the under-35s, according to the Royal Bank of Canada.

Peru’s unemployment rate in April returned to its pre-pandemic level of 6.6%, which is relatively low compared to historical averages for the 21st century to date. The number is expected to remain stable through the rest of the 2020s.

However, youth unemployment is a big problem in the Latin American country. The rate reached 14.3% between April and June, up from the 13.8% recorded during the same period last year, according to the country’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI). As many as seven out of 10 young people are unable to find work related to their studies, highlighting a growing mismatch between the nation’s education system and its jobs market.

In April, the rate of unemployment in France was unchanged from the 7.4% recorded in 2023, and a full percentage point lower than the pre-pandemic 8.4% recorded in 2019.

While high compared to many other countries, 7.4% is low by French historical standards, and the IMF predicts it will fall further, dropping to 6.7% by 2029. As in Germany, one of the major drivers of the declining figure is the Baby Boomer Bust. While President Macron’s labour-market reforms have had an impact, the shrinking of the working-age population due to Baby Boomer retirement has played a more significant role in reducing unemployment.

Italy’s unemployment rate is also lower than it was pre-pandemic, when the number stood at 9.9%, though it’s forecast to rise to 8.6% by 2029.

The country’s ageing population, rather than an explosion in jobs, is mostly behind the declining rate of joblessness. As is the case in other Southern European nations, many of the newly created jobs are low-quality roles in the flourishing tourism industry, which tend to be temporary in nature and poorly paid, according to French newspaper Le Monde.

The unemployment rate in Argentina was recorded at 8% in April. Although the figure is lower than the 2019 rate of 9.8%, it’s considerably higher than the 6.6% recorded in 2023, and it’s risen further in recent months.

President Javier Milei’s economic shock therapy has led to a deep recession in the South American nation and jobs have been vanishing since he assumed power last year. Needless to say, the poverty rate is climbing in the beleaguered country. According to official data, it soared to just under 53% during the first half of this year. However, the IMF expects the rate of joblessness to soften to 7% by 2027.

Brazil’s unemployment rate stood at 8% in April. The number matches Argentina’s but the economic situation in the neighbouring nations couldn’t be more different. Brazil’s figure is much lower than the 12% recorded in 2019 and well below the 21st century pre-pandemic peak of 12.9%, which came about following the 2014 to 2017 Brazilian Economic Crisis.

However, the country’s economy and jobs market have shown impressive fortitude post-pandemic, and there’s every chance the nation will beat IMF estimates – it’s jobless rate wasn’t expected to drop below 7.7% through to 2029.

Staying in South America, Chile’s unemployment rate of 8.7% is higher than it was pre-pandemic – in 2019, it came in at 7.2%.

The lowest rate this century was in 2013 at 6.1%, as demand for copper, a mainstay of the Chilean economy, peaked. The 2019 social protests, COVID-19 pandemic, and increased immigration resulted in higher joblessness in 2020. But while the figure has since fallen, it’s still playing catch-up due to the high level of informal work and myriad global uncertainties, according to economic forecaster FocusEconomics.

Colombia’s rate of unemployment, though high, is on a downward trajectory; the rate in April was a full percentage point lower than the pre-pandemic figure. Looking ahead, the IMF expects the figure to fall to 8.7% by the end of the decade, which would be the lowest number since the late 1990s.

While there are issues surrounding the high proportion of informal work in the nation, the arts, entertainment, vehicle trade, and food services sectors are creating jobs, according to news website ColombiaOne, while an anticipated cut in interest rates should further stimulate job creation.

The unemployment rate in Spain stood at 11.6% in April. The figure is a marked improvement on the pre-pandemic number – in 2019, 14.1% of the workforce was out of a job. It’s also significantly lower than the 26.1% recorded at the height of the Spanish Financial Crisis in 2013.

Nevertheless, the figure remains high by global standards and youth unemployment is shockingly high, standing at 26.7% in April. The reasons for Spain’s stubbornly high rate are complex, according to Spanish newspaper El País, and include the overabundance of low-productivity small businesses that struggle to create jobs, a long-hours working culture, and the large proportion of low-quality, insecure tourism roles.

It’s not hard to see why Ukraine’s unemployment rate is so high. At 14.5%, it’s considerably higher than the 8.5% recorded pre-pandemic and the pre-war figure of 9.8% from 2021.

Of course, Russia’s invasion has heavily disrupted the country’s economy and labour market. Although the joblessness rate is down from its peak of 24.5% in 2022 when President Putin’s forces invaded, the conflict has led to substantial job losses, a shrinking workforce, mass displacement, and skills mismatches, according to a recent ILO interview with National Bank of Ukraine economist Oleksandr Zholud.

Georgia has Europe’s highest unemployment rate, with the April figure coming in at 15.7%. Aside from Ukraine, other European countries with super-high rates of joblessness include North Macedonia (14.1%) and Bosnia & Herzegovina (13.3%).

Still, Georgia’s rate in April was lower than the pre-COVID-19 figure of 17.6%, though it’s expected to rise to 16.5% in 2026 and remain there until the end of the decade. The nation’s perennially high rate of joblessness can be attributed to several factors, from its poor secondary education system to a lack of major industries.

South Africa’s high unemployment rate has been described as a crisis and the leading economic issue for the Rainbow Nation. More than a third of the workforce lacked a job in April, a near-record high and in excess of the pre-pandemic figure of 28.7%. IMF predictions for the rest of the decade make for grim reading, with the number expected to increase to 35% by 2029.

Causes include the legacy of the racist Apartheid system, a lacklustre economy, anaemic investment, limited educational attainment, stark skills mismatches, and over-regulation of the jobs market, as well as high taxes and transportation costs, which make much low-income work unviable.

Sudan has the highest confirmed unemployment rate in the world, according to the IMF. In April, almost half the workforce was out of a job. The figure has jumped since 2019, when joblessness came in at 22.1%, as a result of the Sudanese Civil War, which has been raging in the country since 2023. The conflict has upended the economy and, by extension, the nation’s jobs market.

It’s worth noting the unemployment rate in war-torn Gaza, which isn’t covered by the IMF, is higher. At close to a staggering 80%, according to the ILO, this is by far the highest unemployment figure globally.

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Publish date : 2024-10-21 17:30:00

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