Less than two weeks before the presidential elections in the United States, officials in Serbia are not revealing who they hope to see in the White House.
“I think they are much more cautious now, given the previous wrong predictions about who would win,” Ivan Vejvoda from the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna told Radio Free Europe (RFE).
Unlike in 2020, when the government in Belgrade openly supported Republican candidate Donald Trump, President Aleksandar Vučić now states that he has “preferences,” but won’t publicly disclose them.
“Vučić isn’t hiding them well, and it’s clear that he prefers Trump over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris,” says Daniel Serwer, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in the U.S., in an interview with RFE.
Comments that official Belgrade has once again aligned with the Republican candidate have been accompanied by news of visits from Trump’s close associates to Serbia ahead of the U.S. elections. Donald Trump Jr. visited Belgrade in September. The Republican candidate’s son discussed potential investments with a group of Serbian businessmen.
Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, already has business ventures in Belgrade, with a deal signed in May for his company to build a commercial and residential complex on the site of the former General Staff building, parts of which were destroyed during the NATO intervention in 1999.
The Serbian government and the president’s office did not respond to RFE’s questions about whether these business ties and collaborations indicate political alignment with Trump.
Unlike officials, pro-government media openly support Trump.
Monitoring by the independent Bureau for Social Research (BIRODI) shows the dominance of the Republican candidate in media coverage.
“They promote him for two reasons – the desire to legitimize the authoritarian model of governance on the international stage, and there are obviously some commercial interests,” BIRODI director Zoran Gavrilović told RFE.
What do citizens say?
“Trump is more daring and bold. He dares to do what no one else does. He would probably be better for Serbia. His policies were more favorable than those pursued by (current president) Biden,” Dragana from Belgrade told RFE.
Her fellow Belgrader, Ružica, also supports Trump.
“I like him more; we have some experience with him that isn’t bad, but I also have a friend born in New York who told me that it would be a disaster for America if he won. Since I don’t like America, maybe that’s why I have this answer.”
Although he says he doesn’t follow U.S. elections, Vidak from Belgrade also leans toward the Republican candidate.
“I don’t have enough facts to say why, but I think no war was started while Trump was president.”
Svetozar also picks Trump, citing his promise to end the war in Ukraine.
“Ukraine isn’t that far from Serbia, so that would be one reason.”
Radomir says he doesn’t like either candidate. “I have a daughter who lives there, and she supports Trump. She says the economy will improve, and wars will be stopped. But the question is whether Trump decides anything or if it’s the shadowy figures, the Illuminati.”
Conspiracy theories about the “deep state” and support for Trump could also describe the reporting of some pro-government tabloids and national TV stations.
“State-influenced media are trying to present ‘Trumpism’ as a positive alternative, which serves the autocratic government in Serbia,” says Zoran Gavrilović of BIRODI.
He adds that a large part of Serbian society is turning toward populist leaders and does not support democratic forms of governance.
“We are leaning eastward, where Trump’s populism also fits.”
This is also supported by surveys showing that Russian President Vladimir Putin is the most popular world leader among Serbians.
He is followed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, and another favourite is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who openly supported Trump ahead of the U.S. elections.
Johns Hopkins University professor Daniel Serwer also notes that Trump is “far more popular” in Serbia than his opponent, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris.
“He is an ethnic nationalist, a supremacist, which makes him appealing to many people in Serbia. Despite its multi-ethnic facade, nationalism is the dominant ideology in Serbia,” Serwer says.
Who does the government support? Asked if he had a preferred outcome for the U.S. elections, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said at the Global Security Forum in Prague on August 31 that he “has preferences but won’t reveal them publicly.”
A month later, he stated that the elections were very uncertain and that Serbia needed to focus on “protecting and defending itself.”
“We are already assessing who could be in Donald Trump’s team and who could be in Kamala Harris’s team,” Vučić said on September 26 in an interview with Pink TV.
Serbian President Vučić and Deputy Prime Minister Ivica Dačić strongly condemned an assassination attempt on Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
Vučić called him a “friend of Serbia” in a message on the social network X.
Visits from Trump’s associates Early voting had already begun in some U.S. states when the Republican candidate’s son arrived in Belgrade.
Donald Trump Jr. hosted a business dinner with Serbian businessmen on September 23, discussing “investments and the attractiveness of the business environment in the region and Serbia from the perspective of U.S. investors.”
Donald Trump Jr. is the Executive Vice President of the “Trump Organization,” which includes hundreds of companies and partnerships that own or manage office buildings, hotels, and other properties worldwide.
Trump Jr. also participates in and supports his father’s presidential campaign.
He testified in 2023 during a trial where the Trump family was charged with tax-related crimes. The “Trump Organization” was accused of inflating its wealth and falsifying business records.
The son-in-law’s business
A few months before Trump Jr.’s visit, Serbia signed a contract with Jared Kushner’s company, Trump’s son-in-law, for the “revitalization” of the former General Staff complex in central Belgrade.
The plan for the site, which was left in ruins after NATO’s intervention in Yugoslavia in 1999, includes building two high-rise buildings with apartments and hotels, although the property still retains its cultural heritage protection.
The contract has not yet been made public, but The New York Times reported on March 18 that the investment is valued at $500 million, and that under the proposal, Serbia is set to receive 22% of the profits.
Richard Grenell, a dear guest
Former U.S. Special Envoy for Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, Richard Grenell, who frequently visits Belgrade, also negotiated over the purchase of the General Staff building.
“Kushner and Grenell want control over valuable real estate, which would give Trump an additional reason to be friendly toward Serbia because nothing motivates him more than money,” says Professor Daniel Serwer.
Grenell continued to visit Serbia even after Trump lost the 2020 election and was no longer serving as a special envoy.
In pro-government media, he is presented as someone who favours Belgrade. He himself has claimed that two problems in the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue are Europe, which mediates the talks, and the government of Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti.
In October 2023, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić awarded Grenell an honour.
“It is my honour, on behalf of the citizens of Serbia, to express gratitude to a man who, in a short period of time, through tireless work, made a significant impact on relations between Serbia and the U.S. and fundamentally enriched the ties between our peoples,” Vučić said on October 25, 2023.
Why did Belgrade openly support Trump?
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has twice incorrectly predicted the results of U.S. elections.
The first time was in 2016 when he supported Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in the presidential race.
A few days after the results were announced, billboards supporting the new U.S. president appeared on the streets of Belgrade.
With the message “Trump, Serb,” the pro-government tabloid Informer congratulated him on his victory.
Four years later, ahead of Trump’s bid for a second term, Serbian officials did not hide their support.
In June 2020, then-Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić, now the Minister of Police, stated that Belgrade should be more active in supporting Trump and motivating Serbs in America to vote for him.
In September 2020, Vučić signed the Agreement on the Normalization of Economic Relations between Serbia and Kosovo, known as the Washington Agreement, in the White House alongside then-Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti.
Trump, who attended the signing, touted the agreement as his achievement. He gifted Vučić a pen and the keys to the White House, and upon returning to Belgrade, Vučić stated that his American counterpart was facing a “dirty campaign,” but that, despite this, he was confident Trump would win the election.
In 2020, Trump was defeated by Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
What has been done on economic normalization?
Projects outlined in the Washington Agreement, such as the construction of the “Peace Highway” from Niš (Serbia) to Pristina (Kosovo), as well as a railway line and the division of Gazivode Lake, have only just begun.
A few kilometres of road have been built from Niš toward the Kosovo border.
Letters of intent for establishing an air route between Pristina and Belgrade, which Kosovo and Serbia signed in the presence of Grenell and Trump’s National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien in January 2020, and which the then-U.S. president hailed as “another victory,” remain just that—intentions.
The Mini-Schengen project, later known as Open Balkan, initiated by Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia, has not been joined by Kosovo, Montenegro, or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
As a symbolic guarantee of financing in collaboration with the private sector, which was intended to promote economic rapprochement between Serbia and Kosovo, the office of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was opened in Belgrade in September 2020.
When the U.S. government changed, as well as the leadership of the corporation, the DFC denied that the office in Belgrade would be closed, stating that they remain committed to cooperation with Serbia and Kosovo.
As of the publication of this text, they have not responded to RFE’s questions about the status of the office and projects agreed upon during the Trump administration.
What does Belgrade expect?
“Vučić hopes that Trump as president would raise the issue of Kosovo’s partition, which would lead to the partition of Bosnia as well. Together with today’s Montenegro, this would create the ‘Serbian world’ that he longs for,” Daniel Serwer assessed.
In 2018, there was a public discussion about a territorial exchange between Serbia and Kosovo as a way to normalize their relations.
Although Trump’s administration did not officially support this initiative, then-National Security Advisor John Bolton hinted that it could be considered “if circumstances required.”
However, Brussels warned that this would create even bigger problems in the region, with the risk of a domino effect on border changes.
Unlike Trump’s administration, which often diverged from the European Union’s approach to the Balkans, Biden’s team has sought to synchronize its activities with Brussels in supporting the region’s European integration and addressing key issues, particularly in the Serbia-Kosovo negotiations.
Ivan Vejvoda from the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna says that no major changes in U.S. policy toward the Balkans should be expected, regardless of who wins the upcoming elections.
“It’s futile to think that something completely different will happen. The U.S. will not withdraw its recognition of Kosovo, and there will be no change in NATO’s position in the region. There may be changes in relations with Europe and within the U.S., but not in our region, which is small compared to other global challenges.”
Whether Biden’s vice president Kamala Harris will succeed him or Donald Trump will return to the White House will be decided by the electoral votes on November 5.
(Radio Free Europe, 23.10.2024)
https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/amerika-srbija-izbori-tramp/33157814.html
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