More and more people are living in Switzerland. However, population growth would be even stronger if many migrants did not emigrate again. How widespread is the phenomenon?
The number 147,000 is causing an uproar in Switzerland. That is how much the resident population grew in 2023, the largest increase since the 1960s. Around 9 million people now live in the country. The debate over migration is back in full swing.
However, there are two other important figures to keep in mind.
It is true that many people immigrate to Switzerland – but many also leave the country again.
The public debate usually only centers around the net migration rate. This figure measures the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants. Net migration is an important parameter. In 2023, for instance, net migration amounted to around 139,000 people (263,000 minus 124,000). It was thus almost entirely responsible for the strong population growth in Switzerland.
But if one only considers net migration alone, some of the important factors behind this figure remain hidden.
On the one hand, it is clear that Switzerland’s appeal is actually even greater than assumed by politicians and the public. The fact that 263,000 people migrated to Switzerland in 2023 means that 3% of the resident population will have newly arrived in that year alone.
On the other hand, 1.4% of the resident population also emigrated in 2023. For these people, living in another country was apparently more attractive. There is a popular assumption that once people arrive in Switzerland they stay forever, but that is not true.
How great has the migration dynamic been since the free movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the EU came into force in 2002? The NZZ has analyzed data on migration flows published annually by the Federal Statistical Office.
Immigration is much greater than expected …
The extent of immigration is reflected in the total number of people who came to Switzerland between 2002 and 2023. In these two decades, a cumulative total of more than 3 million immigrants arrived in Switzerland, 3.174 million to be precise.
The majority of immigrants over the past two decades have come from EU countries. EU citizens accounted for 2 million people or 63% of all immigrants. This means that the free movement of persons agreement was the biggest driver of immigration.
Germans have been the most important group of immigrants since the enactment of the free movement of persons agreement.
Over the past two decades, a total of 552,000 Germans came to Switzerland. They are followed by three similarly sized groups: Italian (287,000), French (276,000) and Portuguese citizens (275,000). Around 107,000 people immigrated from Spain and 90,000 from the U.K.
… but emigration is also underestimated
Once people live in Switzerland, they don’t always stay here. Over the past two decades, many foreign nationals have also emigrated from Switzerland. The cumulative figure since 2002 is over 1.6 million people, 1.638 million to be precise.
In purely mathematical terms, this means that every second immigrant has left the country again.
This has significant consequences: Without this high level of emigration, the resident population in Switzerland would have grown much more strongly. The Swiss population would have reached the 10 million mark long ago. In reality, however, the resident population has «only» increased from 7.3 million to 8.9 million since 2002.
Once again, Germans also constituted the largest group of emigrants.
A cumulative 273,000 Germans have left Switzerland since the enactment of the free movement of persons agreement. Statistically speaking, this means that every second German immigrant turned their back on Switzerland. This is followed by the Italians (159,000), the Portuguese (152,000) and the French (144,000). In addition, 76,000 people from Spain and 66,000 people from the U.K. also emigrated. These two groups had the largest turnover: In mathematical terms, over 70% of immigrants from Spain and the U.K. left Switzerland again.
There are various reasons for people to emigrate. Some return home after a few years of work or after retirement. Others came to Switzerland for a job, but could not get accustomed to the local culture.
In any case, the amount of time immigrants stay in Switzerland is surprisingly short. The Federal Statistical Office recently analyzed the length of stay for those who immigrated to Switzerland in 2011.
Of the immigrants from EU countries, 35% had left Switzerland again after one year. After three years, it was just under half. It thus appears that many EU immigrants do not come to settle in Switzerland for good, but instead take advantage of the free movement of persons to work here for a few years.
International mobility is most pronounced among U.S. citizens. Many of them come to Switzerland as classic «expats» with a limited time frame. After three years, almost two-thirds of Americans have left the country again.
Length of stay is a relevant metric for assessing whether the high level of immigration has more advantages or disadvantages for Switzerland. In the short term, EU immigrants are important for the financing of health insurance and the old-age and survivors’ insurance. They contribute significantly more than they receive in benefits. Immigrants can also become net recipients of social insurance in the long term, especially if they remain in Switzerland for their entire lives and belong to the low-income section of the population. However, the figures tend to show the opposite: Many EU immigrants are highly qualified and leave Switzerland again after a few years.
Who’s coming and who’s going? There are big differences between nationalities
The dynamics of immigration and emigration differ greatly between the countries of origin.
For Germans, immigration was significantly higher than emigration, especially at the beginning of the free movement of persons. This means that net migration was high in 2007 and 2008, amounting to around 30,000 people per year. Since then, however, the momentum has slowed. In the 2010s, fewer Germans came to Switzerland, while at the same time more Germans emigrated. Since 2021, there has been a trend toward increasing immigration again.
The picture is different for Portuguese nationals. Between 2002 and 2012, significantly more people immigrated to Switzerland from Portugal than returned to their home country. Net migration was therefore clearly positive. But the situation changed in 2017: Every year since, more Portuguese nationals have left Switzerland than have arrived here. Switzerland has become less attractive to the Portuguese – partly due to the fact that their home country is luring emigrants back with tax incentives.
Another trend is visible when considering the migration dynamics of Spanish nationals. By 2007, more Spaniards were returning to their country of origin than coming to Switzerland. Many of them were likely immigrants who had come to Switzerland in the 1960s and 1970s and returned to their home country to retire. Since the euro debt crisis of 2011, however, Switzerland has once again become a popular country for Spanish migrants. Net migration has been clearly positive since then and reached almost record levels in 2023.
These charts show that migration is a dynamic phenomenon. There is a lot of coming and going. Since the enactment of the free movement of persons agreement with the EU, over 3 million people have immigrated to Switzerland, but 1.6 million foreign nationals also left the country.
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Publish date : 2024-10-24 01:11:00
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