For weeks now a group of EU commissioners-to-be have been studying up like anxious civil servants about to face their first grilling by the Dáil’s Public Accounts Committee. Put forward by member states, the commissioners make up the political leadership at the top of the EU’s executive arm, sitting below president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.
Public interest in the politics that goes on inside the commission’s Berlaymont headquarters fades pretty fast after the question of who gets what job – often viewed as a gauge of current influence in the EU – is settled every five years.
Ireland’s nominee Michael McGrath was given a mid-ranking role covering justice and the rule of law; Spain’s Teresa Ribera is commissioner for the green transition and competition; Stephane Sejourne from France is to cover industrial strategy. Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia) was picked as commissioner for the economy, and Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič is nominated for trade commissioner.
The commissioners’ focus now shifts to the European Parliament, where they each must clear confirmation hearings held by MEPs. Traditionally at least one of the crop is rejected, but last time out MEPs took three scalps, including French president Emmanuel Macron’s first pick. The more combative approach five years ago was seen as the parliament flexing its muscles in its never-ending tussle for power with the other EU institutions. There is little appetite for a repeat of such bloodletting this time around. The committee hearings start on Monday, November 4th, and run until November 12th.
Back in 2019 the stakes were a lot lower. Russia had not launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine, the German and French economies were in better nick, and the average person on the street had never heard of a coronavirus. This time the hearings kick off under the orange-tinged shadow of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House, and while Russian leader Vladimir Putin is trying (with some success) to undermine democracy in Europe.
Over three hours each commissioner-designate will take questions from a committee of MEPs on their brief before a closed-door vote. One diplomat I spoke to this week said they wouldn’t be surprised if every commissioner made it through. The thinking, which is shared by many, is that if a commissioner from one political faction is taken out, MEPs from that group will reject others in retribution.
Fourteen of the 26 come from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the largest political grouping, which includes Fine Gael, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform, Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. Von der Leyen herself comes from within the EPP.
Renew, the French-dominated centrist grouping that includes Fianna Fáil, wants to make sure Sejourne gets over the line. Similarly, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the centre left grouping that has the most MEPs after the EPP, wants to protect Ribera, the Spanish commissioner from their number who has been given one of the most powerful portfolios.
“The puzzle is quite intricate…if you start to reject three or four the whole house of cards will collapse,” said one figure in Renew. An MEP from the group said they weren’t picking up any desire for it to draw blood. This view was shared by an MEP in the Socialists group: “I don’t get the sense that we want a fight…If there is one it won’t be us that start it.”
Previous bolshie talk about the parliament possibly rejecting four or five commissioners seems to have been replaced by a quiet acceptance that the new commission needs to get up and running.
Even the commissioners put forward by the populist, rightwing governments in Hungary and Italy may have a much easier ride than expected. Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni nominated Raffaele Fitto, a relatively moderate politician from her hard right Brothers of Italy party. When it became clear Fitto was in line for a senior position in the new commission some in Renew and the S&D began to kick up. That opposition seems to have dissipated now.
Given how obstructive a figure Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban has become inside the EU, you might have put money on its commissioner, Oliver Varhelyi, being sent packing back to Budapest. As a returning commissioner Varhelyi is a known entity in Brussels, where he is not liked by many MEPs and is seen as the most vulnerable in the hearings. Von der Leyen handed him the low-rung portfolio for health and animal welfare, where she obviously felt he couldn’t do much damage. The fear is if Varhelyi is rejected by parliament Orban will slow walk proposing a replacement, holding up the entire process by weeks or even months.
McGrath is one of the first commissioners to face MEPs and should be safe barring a disastrous performance, which is unlikely. The big names, like Ribera, Fitto, Sejourne and Kajas Kallas, who is to be the EU’s foreign affairs chief, will be the last up. That in itself should keep a lot of knives in sheaths until the end, or so the thinking goes.
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Publish date : 2024-10-30 22:13:00
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