Taking from active inventories could partially cover production shortfalls. Although donating materiel from active inventories and war reserves is risky, increased domestic production combined with a more effective Ukrainian force assuages this risk.
Ukraine still desperately needs artillery, and Western production and international procurement is lagging. More investment is needed, and schedules must be kept. Commitments to the Ukraine Defence Contact Group and to the “Czech initiative” must be greater and deliveries timelier.
Given Europe’s lack of HIMAR-equivalent rocket artillery and ballistic missile production, the Czech initiative could be expanded to procure equivalent systems from global producers.
Europe can quickly help with tactical and strike drones by expanding support to the existing “drone coalition” To be clear, Ukraine needs millions of tactical drones, tens-of-thousands of strike drones — and, of course, permission to use them against any military or dual-use target such as airfields, depots, and refineries.
To produce drones rapidly and in necessary quantities, Europe’s best option lies in either building Ukrainian designs outright or producing critical subcomponents such as cameras, flight controllers, motors, explosives, improved targeting systems, and batteries.
This opens up production to many small European firms that, with governmental help and financing, can nimbly integrate into the Ukrainian defence industrial base.
Finally, Ukraine still needs basic military equipment. Trucks, armoured vehicles, small arms, ammunition, mortars, medical kits, and body armour, among others, are in short supply. With Russia’s use of chemical weapons, Ukrainian forces also need gas masks. All of these are produced in Europe and can be ramped up. This equipment saves lives, and in a war of attrition, people are the most valuable resource.
I will be blunt: this task will not be easy. Ukraine’s backers will need to support Kyiv with equipment transfers and financial investments that could easily reach 1% of GDP annually. Bending rules and regulations will be necessary to speed up production; Ukraine cannot wait.
While supporting Ukrainian victory has a strong moral rationale, the fall of Ukraine would cast doubt on European promises writ large.
If Putin’s Russia succeeds in capturing Ukraine, it will continue its efforts to annex and terrorise its neighbours and the 21st century will be defined by force. If Europe sacrifices to guarantee Ukrainian victory now, Putin’s Russia will be stopped and the 21st Century will be defined by adherence to law.
Europe, now is the time to choose.
Michael Bohnert is an engineer at RAND, a US-based research institute. His research focuses on defense technology, acquisition policy, and industrial base management.
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Publish date : 2024-11-21 01:21:00
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