The United States’ top official will officially be Donald Trump starting in January. A leader with unique perspectives on pressing global issues is expected to significantly influence Serbia’s foreign policy discourse, as well as its relations with Russia and China.
Donald Trump will return to the White House in January next year, and America and the world are preparing for another four-year term under the Republican president, writes Voice of America (VOA).
Although foreign policy was not a decisive factor in the outcome of the recent presidential elections, the results may shift the focus of American diplomacy concerning the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, and competition with China.
Experts interviewed by Voice of America suggest that the Western Balkans is unlikely to be a high priority for the new administration. However, they emphasize that the influence of China, the war in Ukraine, and Russia on the Balkans could shape U.S. policy toward the region.
Relations with China
Dalibor Rohac, from Washington’s conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI), believes that the Sino-Russian alliance, which has increasingly positioned itself as an alternative to the West in the Balkans, poses a political and economic challenge for the U.S.
“If you look at the fact that the Port of Piraeus is Chinese-owned, there is a serious attempt to deepen ties with EU markets, which includes infrastructure connectivity projects throughout the Western Balkans,” Rohac told Voice of America.
Over the past decade, China has made significant investments in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative, including the Port of Piraeus and infrastructure projects across the Western Balkans. In Serbia, China has invested billions of dollars in mining and infrastructure, with agreements on strategic partnerships and free trade also signed.
Russia’s influence in Serbia is evident through gas agreements and media outlets close to the Kremlin.
Launched in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a massive infrastructure project led by Beijing, spanning the globe. Critics see it as a tool for expanding Chinese power. Serbia was among the 28 founding countries of the initiative.
Andrew Hyde, from Washington’s Stimson Center, believes the U.S. should pay greater attention to China’s growing influence in Serbia.
“Primarily in terms of allowing China a greater role in the economy than the EU and U.S. would prefer to see. I expect continued pressure, some of it driven by strategic goals and some by U.S. business interests and the perception that China is risking pushing us out of the region,” Hyde said.
According to research from the American Enterprise Institute, Serbia borrowed $7.19 billion from China in 2021 and another $1.91 billion in 2022. Previously, in 2020, Trump’s first administration blocked business collaboration between Serbian Telekom and China’s Huawei in the 5G technology sector, prompting Serbia to turn to Ericsson and Nokia instead.
“The U.S. is Serbia’s future”
Richard Grenell, the U.S. envoy for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue during Donald Trump’s first administration, stated in September that Serbia’s future lies with the United States, not China and Russia.
He added that there is genuine friendship between the U.S. and Serbia regardless of who is in power.
“I regularly talk with President Vučić and tell him that he needs to distance himself from Russia and China and get closer to the West and the U.S. As an American, I often give such advice and do not hold back from promoting Western values,” Grenell said.
Grenell was among the guests at the “Serbia Beyond the Future” reception organized by Serbia’s Permanent Mission to the UN in New York in September.
In 2023, Serbia attracted more than €4.5 billion in foreign direct investments, according to the National Bank of Serbia (NBS). The majority of these investments came from the European Union, accounting for nearly half of the total, or around €2.2 billion.
Individually, the largest inflow of foreign direct investments came from China, amounting to approximately €1.4 billion.
In 2023, Russia invested approximately €163 million in Serbia, while the US contributed around €60 million, according to an NBS document.
Russia’s influence
Another major foreign policy issue that could shape the US approach to the Western Balkans is Russia, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine and Moscow’s influence in the region.
During his campaign, Trump stated that if he were elected, the war in Ukraine, ongoing since 2022, could be ended in a single day.
Critics have often accused him of being sympathetic toward Vladimir Putin, to which Trump has responded by blaming the Biden administration for putting Ukraine in a position to become a target of the Russian invasion.
Serbia remains the only European country that has not imposed sanctions on Moscow, despite requests from both the European Union and the United States. The Biden administration has not exerted significant pressure on Belgrade to introduce sanctions, and experts interviewed by Voice of America suggest that this approach is unlikely to change under a new administration.
“I see no reason to believe that the Trump administration would pressure Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia. I expect efforts to end the war, which I assume would be followed by some form of normalization in US-Russia relations, and possibly even between Russia and certain European countries,” said Dalibor Rohac.
Although Trump has yet to reveal the details of his plan to end the war in Ukraine, US media, citing sources close to the newly elected president, suggest the possibility of “freezing the conflict” at its current positions.
Dalibor Rohac also noted that the end of the conflict could be accompanied by efforts to economically benefit from cheap Russian energy and investment ties with Russia.
The Situation in Kosovo
During Donald Trump’s first term, his administration actively worked on normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo, culminating in the signing of the Washington Agreement in September 2020.
Under the Biden administration, dialogue continued, but tensions also escalated, and normalization has yet to be achieved. This raises the question of how much attention the US will now devote to the issue, given the backdrop of more pressing geopolitical conflicts.
“I think it will be approached in a somewhat preventative or defensive manner, as no US administration wants any conflict to erupt there,” said Andrew Hyde.
However, Hyde anticipates less direct involvement from the US and a stronger push for the European Union to take the lead role.
“They will pay attention to it, but I expect less direct involvement and more monitoring of what happens on the ground,” Hyde added.
Trump’s first administration focused on economic initiatives, believing that improving living standards would facilitate political agreements. However, success also depends on local actors, emphasized Dalibor Rohac.
(Vreme, 28.11.2024)
Kako će se menjati spoljna politika Srbije kada se Tramp vrati?
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Publish date : 2024-11-28 09:31:00
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