The picture taken in Palm Beach, Florida, on November 22 is reassuring. Tanned and smiling in his bright blue suit, Donald Trump shakes the hand of Mark Rutte, the new secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), who is also smiling.
The two men discussed “global security,” but perhaps not sensitive issues. There’s one major one: the US president-elect’s threat during his campaign to no longer help out NATO members who don’t pay enough for their security – even in the event of a Russian attack!
After Ukraine’s invasion, European countries awoke feeling that their territorial integrity and values had also been violated and inflated their armed forces’ budgets in response to Russia’s imperial ambitions. Trump’s election was like a second wake-up call. According to the Friday, December 6 edition of the Financial Times, discussions are well underway within the European Union to create a fund endowed with at least €500 billion to finance arms purchases and joint projects, many times more than the €8 billion of the defense fund planned for 2021-2027.
Read more Subscribers only Waiting for Donald Trump to return, the EU and NATO close ranks
This financial vehicle, open to non-EU member states like the UK and Norway, would be funded by loans guaranteed by each voluntary member state, and not by the Eurobonds financing the NextGenerationEU recovery plan adopted in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. More intergovernmental than EU-based, it represents a historic “big bang,” according to Andrius Kubilius, a Lithuanian who has just taken up his duties as defense commissioner, a new position in the European Commission.
Unrivaled American manufacturers
Regardless of whether the project does materialize, one question remains: Who stands to benefit from the loss of the security guarantee of NATO in the event of a US withdrawal? European industrialists or the American giants, who have already benefited from the fallout of the Russian-Ukrainian war? A senior French arms executive smiled at the question.
“There won’t be any positive impact for European companies,” he said, convinced that Trump will haggle with each country for a promise of protection in exchange for purchasing US-made weaponry. “And promises only bind those who believe in them,” he added wryly.
For the Republican billionaire, Europeans’ safety is not about political or moral commitment but about providing a service that deserves compensation.
Would a richly endowed fund change this status quo? Possibly. The 27 member states allocate 1.9% of their wealth to defense. Three-quarters of this effort goes to non-European groups and 55% to American groups. Germans, Poles, Czechs and Balts have always felt safer under NATO’s umbrella, equipped with American weapons. Even if they now doubt their big brother’s protection, they will long remain dependent on F-35 fighters and Patriot missile batteries.
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Publish date : 2024-12-12 05:48:00
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