Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte will host Mr Volodymyr Zelensky and several European leaders at his residence in Brussels on the evening of Dec 18 to discuss how to support Ukraine ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The main topics likely to be discussed with the Ukrainian president are ways to bolster the country’s air defences and to accelerate the delivery of past weapons pledges that have not fully materialised, according to people familiar with the matter. The leaders may also be pushed on their willingness to take part in a potential post-war peacekeeping force.
Trump has pledged to put a swift end to the war, but he has not provided specific details of how he intends to do that.
The president-elect and his national security nominees have hinted that Ukraine may have to leave swathes of territory in limbo in exchange for security guarantees that will likely fall short of Nato membership. That would leave Europe having to carry much of the burden moving forward.
As European capitals come to terms with the possibility that negotiations are thrust upon Mr Zelensky once Trump enters office, the leaders’ focus is on ensuring that Kyiv enters any talks from a position of strength and on filling gaps that may emerge if the US scales back its support, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Along with Mr Zelensky, Mr Rutte’s meeting will be attended by Germany’s Olaf Scholz, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Poland’s Andrzej Duda, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
On Dec 18, Dr von der Leyen said the European Union needs to keep up its political support for Ukraine, including on Kyiv’s application for membership in the bloc.
“They have achieved tremendous progress towards membership of our union,” she told the European Parliament. “And if they keep up these efforts, we should be ready to open the negotiations” on a part of the process in early 2025.
The UK appears to have also shifted its position in recent weeks, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the first time conceding that the conflict will likely end with a negotiated settlement. Foreign Secretary David Lammy is expected to join the meeting on Dec 18 in his place.
Britain must help “put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for negotiations” with Russia to end the conflict “so they can secure a just and lasting peace on their terms that guarantees their security, independence and right to choose their own future,” Mr Starmer said earlier this month.
EU leaders plan to use the joint conclusions from a leaders’ summit on Dec 19 to call for “the urgent stepping up of efforts, in particular on the delivery of air defence systems, ammunition and missiles, as well as on the provision of necessary training and equipment for Ukrainian brigades”, according to the most recent draft, seen by Bloomberg.
That is no easy task. Russian forces continue to gradually advance on the battlefield and its missiles and drones continue to rain on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and cities.
While Europe has provided the most financial support to Kyiv, the US has been its most significant military backer. And Europe lacks the resources to make up for any major reduction in support that may occur under Trump, particularly in the near term.
Mr Rutte recently rammed the point home, warning that Europe is still not doing enough to ramp up its defences.
Another area of focus for allies moving forward will be the continued supply of artillery ammunition. Kyiv has been able to recently flatten Russia’s advantage to about 1.5 shells for every round Ukraine lobs back, from many times that earlier in the war. But those efforts will need to be sustained, the people said.
One challenge, some of the people said, is that Mr Scholz will not be in a position to make many commitments that stretch beyond Germany’s election in February, while France’s Emmanuel Macron is weakened both politically and economically.
As the leader of the EU’s third largest economy, a lot of attention will be on Ms Meloni and her positions in Mr Rutte’s meeting, the people said. The discussions will be a prelude to a broader discussion taking place among all EU member states at the summit on Dec 19. BLOOMBERG
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Publish date : 2024-12-18 03:32:00
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