(Bloomberg) — European natural gas edged lower as Slovakia’s push to keep the fuel coming through Ukraine adds optimism about the region’s supply next year.
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Benchmark futures retreated after jumping 4.4% on Tuesday, the biggest daily gain in more than a month.
Slovakia, a key buyer of Russian gas sent via Ukraine, has held a series of talks with Moscow and Kyiv, and Prime Minister Robert Fico on Thursday plans to discuss “elegant alternative technical solutions” with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“We have solutions so that Ukraine does not transit Russian gas, but instead, it will be gas owned by someone else,” he said, without elaborating.
Time is running out to avoid a halt in pipeline deliveries through Ukraine before a transit deal with Russia expires at the end of the year. While Europe as a whole has reduced its dependency on Moscow — and Brussels said it has no interest in continuing the Russian flows — buyers in the eastern portion of the bloc are stepping up pressure to reach a deal.
Several options have been floated to keep the transit, including with the help of intermediaries. Earlier this year, Azerbaijan’s Socar was mentioned as a potential mediator.
Europe’s gas inventories have been depleting faster-than-usual so far this winter, contributing to a price rally earlier in December. The halt in gas transit through Ukraine next month could lead to an even faster decrease, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. seeing risks of storage levels dropping to 39% by the end of the heating season — well below this year’s 53% mark.
The continent will still be able to refill inventories next summer, “but that requires a lot of things going right,” Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart wrote in a note. That includes no additional delays to upcoming export projects and relatively “moderate” growth in Asian demand for liquefied natural gas.
Meanwhile, mild weather is forecast in northwest Europe until early January as traders wind down positions ahead of the holiday season. Together with lackluster demand for fuel from China, that’s helping to keep a lid on prices for now.
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, were 0.9% lower at €41.67 a megawatt-hour by 9:41 a.m. in Amsterdam.
–With assistance from Priscila Azevedo Rocha.
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Publish date : 2024-12-18 00:41:00
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