The appointment of Lord Mandelson as the new UK ambassador to Washington is only the latest attempt by the UK and other European governments to prepare for the disruptions promised by the incoming Trump administration. French President Macron’s invitation to Donald Trump to a front-row seat at the re-opening of Notre Dame Cathedral earlier this month, and other efforts by European leaders, are all designed to ingratiate themselves with the new administration in Washington.
This approach is premised on the belief that Trump is susceptible to a European ‘whisperer’ who can jolly him along so he will moderate or even abandon his calls for Europe to increase defence spending, rebalance its trade with the US, and align against China, and that Trump can somehow be charmed into remaining militarily committed to the continent.
This approach will fail. Instead, Europe needs to do something far more difficult if it wishes to win the respect and support of the new administration: become a capable security partner and rebalance its trade with the US.
Divisions in the incoming Trump team and challenges in Europe complicate this goal. The president-elect’s Cabinet nominations reflect a mixture of traditional foreign policy internationalists and “America First” isolationists. The former believe that the United States is more secure when it engages with allies and friends and supports a rules-based global order, while the latter believe the US has intervened militarily far too much in the past few decades, American workers have been short-changed by the global trade regime, and allies need to take far more responsibility for their own defence. And because Trump views foreign policy in purely transactional terms, where he will stand on any specific issue is unpredictable.
Europe has its own challenges. Foremost is a weakness of political leadership and strategic vision in its leading powers and uncertainty that Europe can forge a common response.More broadly, there are growing risks around fragmentation as populist figures and the far-Right grow stronger driven by a poisonous cocktail of resentment against immigration and discontent with the political status quo. The continent is facing significant economic challenges and risks being left behind in key sectors as the United States and China power ahead as outlined in the recent Draghi Report on European competitiveness.
As Trump takes power, Europe will need to step up and respond positively to the challenges that it faces together with the US. It will need to demonstrate to the various parts of the new administration, and centrally to Trump himself, that it is serious about security and ready for a renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship.
Ukraine will be at the top of the agenda come 2025. Trump has issued conflicting statements on supporting Ukraine, but he clearly wants to broker an end to the war. As he pursues a settlement, he will expect Europe to replace the US as the main arms supplier for Ukraine, to offer European boots on the ground to monitor a settlement, and to generously help Ukraine reconstruct its shattered economy. After a year that has seen the Middle East torn apart, Trump may also expect Europe to contribute to stabilising and rebuilding the region through a security and economic commitment, and notably to support his tough line on Iran and to manage the new situation in Syria.
Europe will need to increase substantially its defence capabilities. This means more than simply increasing defence budgets, although that is necessary even for those countries that have met the 2% threshold that NATO established back in 2014. The Trump administration will see a 3% defence budget as mere table stakes, given the deteriorating security environment. Europe will need to demonstrate a coherent and effective common approach to developing vital capabilities, emerging tech, and its defence industries, and that it can deliver a credible commitment to the use of force to underpin deterrence as a key element of international politics.
European countries should restructure their armed forces around the central mission of deterring Russian aggression. This means reinforcing Finland’s long border with Russia, keeping the Baltic Sea safe for allied operations, reinforcing the central front and Black Sea region, and enhancing Nato’s air and missile defences. At the same time, they will need to have the capabilities to work with the US in other theatres, notably Africa, the Middle East and in vital maritime spaces such as the Red Sea, while contributing to the emerging partnership of countries to deter China in the Indo-Pacific.
Trade disputes may be even more contentious than defence issues. Trump has already vowed to increase tariffs on EU goods if Europe does not buy more oil and gas and other products and services from the US. Lord Mandelson’s experience as the UK’s EU Commissioner and political operator will serve him well, but the dream of a separate bilateral free-trade deal between the UK and US is beyond his or any other envoy’s abilities. Indeed, the UK will have to make substantial concessions to avoid punitive tariffs, as will the rest of Europe.
None of these steps will be easy for Europe either financially or politically, as it will mean already unpopular governments making a fundamental change in the social contract that has permitted Europe to prioritise butter over guns, protect inefficient domestic industries, and maintain generous welfare benefits and retirement programmes. Yet given Russia’s ongoing aggression, Iran’s attempts to revise the Middle East by force, and China’s economic and military threats, they are deeply in Europe’s self-interest.
Pilgrimages to Mar-a-Lago for intimate dinners and rounds of golf may seem clever, and deleting past social media barbs aimed at Trump may be necessary, but they are insufficient to advance Europe’s interests and promote better transatlantic relations. The Trump administration is going to expect tangible results from Europe. The time for dithering is over. It is time for Europe to deliver.
Neil Melvin is Director of International Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Mitchell B. Reiss is a Distinguished Fellow at RUSI and a former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department
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Publish date : 2024-12-21 09:37:00
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