Finnish president Alexander Stubb says it is clear Mr Trump’s ‘number one nemesis’ is China, not Russia (AP)
While none of the European leaders said they believed Mr Trump would pull out of Nato, his long-held scepticism of the alliance notwithstanding, concerns prevail that the US, particularly under the incoming president, will eventually look to shift attention to China and the Indo-Pacific, including the defence of Taiwan.
“Their number one nemesis or competitor is China,” says Mr Stubb, though he adds that he believes Mr Trump nevertheless understands the importance of alliances in combating Beijing, too.
Experts have also pointed out that should the US shift its resources and focus too quickly to the Indo-Pacific without affording Europe time to become more independent, they could be dragged back into European security issues at a much greater expense.
“I think it’s in the vested interest of the United States to stay engaged [in Europe],” Mr Stubb says. “In any case, I believe that values-based alliances last much longer than interest-based alliances.”
Underlying Europe’s need to spend more on defence is its support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Aside from questioning US support in Nato, Mr Trump has also vowed to put an end to the prevailing Western philosophy of backing Kyiv until they push Russia completely out of Ukraine.
He has said the killing on both sides must end immediately, and that he will secure an end to the war within 24 hours of assuming office. Many fear this will involve forcing Ukraine to cede some of its currently occupied territory to Russia.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that Ukraine’s military currently lacks the strength to retake its territory under Russian control, which includes four regions in the east and south of the country, as well as the Crimean peninsula on the Black Sea.
Kristen Michal, the prime minister of Estonia, greets Keir Starmer in Tallinn (PA)
But Europe’s frontline countries remain adamant that Putin must not be rewarded for his invasion and that the safety of the continent relies on Ukraine’s success.
“To be very frank, when Russia is fighting with Ukraine and Russia is defeated in Ukraine, there is no need to ask who is next,” says Mr Michal. “If we allow Russia as a regime, as a thug, as a bully, to take something by force, and after that, we say, yes, let’s agree that half of what is taken is theirs, then that would be a very bad message for the future of the democratic world.”
But the inability of Europe to protect itself, particularly without the US, only emphasises its difficulty in continuing to support Ukraine militarily.
When Mr Zelensky said Ukraine lacked the ability to retake Russian-occupied territory, it was significant that he suggested “diplomatic pressure” was the only way to ensure Mr Putin was not rewarded for his land grab.
During a meeting in Brussels last week, Mr Zelensky added that it was “impossible” to speak of a successful end to the fighting if Ukraine received only European security guarantees. Only guarantees with US backing could be sufficient to prevent future Russian attacks, he said.
“We are training Ukrainians together with Estonians and Finns, but at this point, the capacity is not enough,” admits Mr Rinkevics.
“I would say that currently one of the issues is not only that many nations are not ready to provide Ukraine with arms, it’s the defence industry that is not able to produce at the necessary level. We can provide Ukraine with what we can, but in many cases, we are already at the edge of what we have.”
A UK government spokesperson said: “Nato is the most successful defensive alliance in history and has made the one billion people under its umbrella area, including the UK, safer and more secure.
“We already spend 2.3 per cent of our GDP on defence, and have committed to increasing to 2.5 per cent as soon as possible.
“Our commitment to Ukraine remains ironclad, and we will deliver £3bn a year in military aid to them for as long as it is needed.”
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Publish date : 2024-12-24 01:32:00
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