“USA today. The future has begun!” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted on X this month after visiting Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, along with photographs including one of the Time magazine cover of the president-elect, its person of the year.
Two days earlier, Trump dined with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at a reception for the reopening of Notre Dame cathedral in Paris, telling reporters she was “a real live wire” that he “got along great” with.
That Trump would hit it off with the two European right-wing leaders is no surprise. They share similar views on the challenge of immigration and many other social issues that define the populist fervour that brought each to power.
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Trump, who has often treated Brussels with derision, is also well known for trying to work with leaders whom he likes, even if doing so is counter to traditional engagements that US President Joe Biden relied on to shore up Washington’s transatlantic leadership.
Biden has generally been effective working with the European Union and Nato to craft a more unified “China threat” narrative that has helped convince Europe’s leaders to align with his approach to Beijing.
Given Trump’s confrontational approach to international relations in his first term, though, few expect a continuation of Biden’s methods. Indeed, many of Europe’s far-right leaders are celebrating Trump’s return, and analysts speculate that his ties to Europe’s right will influence the EU’s China policy – and vice versa.
Orban and Meloni, two of Trump’s European allies and leaders of the EU’s most successful right-wing factions, however, differ on their China strategies – one is considered “China-friendly”, another is more hardline – complicating forecasts about which way Trump will tack.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban during a meeting at an EU-Western Balkans summit in Brussels on December 18. Photo: AP alt=Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban during a meeting at an EU-Western Balkans summit in Brussels on December 18. Photo: AP>
Other prominent far-right European figures such as Marine Le Pen in France and Alice Weidel, the co-chair of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) have also congratulated Trump on his return.
But while these leaders seem ideologically close to Trump, analysts said, they do not fall into lockstep in the increasing US-China rivalry, especially when it comes to tariffs and the Ukraine war.
Should Trump make good on his vow to impose a 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on all imports – which will affect US allies in Europe along with every other exporting nation – analysts said it would affect US-EU ties as well as how the bloc assesses trade with China.
Indeed, any determination of how the US and its transatlantic allies behave toward China in 2025 – whether they will harden or ease their policies – could well depend on which European leaders have more sway with Trump.
Dimitris Tsarouhas, research director at Virginia Tech’s Centre for European Union and Transatlantic Studies, said that compared with Meloni, Orban – who has maintained close connections with Trump since his first term – was more a “privileged partner”.
Meloni has “proven to be a very reliable ally … but in terms of the ideological proximity, the ideological affinity, Trump is closer to Orban,” Tsarouhas said, who is also a fellow at the Wilson Centre’s Global Europe Programme.
Hungary is often considered as the most China-friendly nation in the EU, frequently at odds with the bloc’s China policies. The country, which voted against tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, is home to Chinese EV giant BYD’s first plant in Europe and is a major focus of China’s belt and road investments.
Cristina Vanberghen, a senior policy expert at the EU Commission, said that Budapest would probably try to use its ties with both the US and China to negotiate better terms for itself.
“Orban’s stance toward China will not change drastically under Trump’s second term,” she said.
“He values the economic benefits of Chinese investments and sees China as a counterbalance to US and EU pressures.
“His prioritisation of Hungary’s sovereignty could mean he continues working with China in areas where Brussels is more hesitant. But he won’t allow China to undermine Hungary’s relationship with the US.”
Orban with US president-elect Donald Trump at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on December 9. Photo: Hungarian Prime Minister’s Office/EPA-EFE alt=Orban with US president-elect Donald Trump at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on December 9. Photo: Hungarian Prime Minister’s Office/EPA-EFE>
But in case Trump applies aggressive policies toward Beijing, such as diplomatic isolation, Orban would probably “soften” his China-friendly rhetoric to “avoid alienating the US”, Vanberghen added.
Meloni is expected to be more “Trumpian” than Orban towards China, especially when it comes to Italian national interests and security concerns.
Meloni pulled out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative last year – reversing her predecessor Giuseppe Conte’s decision that made Italy the first Group of 7 nation to sign on Beijing’s trillion-dollar global development programme.
Moreover, despite her far-right affiliation, she is becoming a more respected and influential figure in the EU, aligning with the bloc’s major policies. She supports the EU’s “de-risking” approach toward China, and Italy voted to impose up to 45.3 per cent tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Lorenzo Castellani, a political-science professor at Luiss University in Rome, said that Italy was not particularly “China-averse”, but would align with Trump and the EU’s policies regarding EVs and Chinese investments in strategic sectors.
“Italian industries need China for raw materials and Italian products need the Chinese market. What is at stake is the cooperation on technology, digital and environmental, and infrastructures. On these dossiers it is likely to have more opposition than in the past,” he said.
Unlike Orban, who has pushed back on Nato and the EU’s commitment to Ukraine in its defence against Russia, analysts said that Meloni’s support for traditional European alliances could become a friction point with Trump, who has threatened to cut off US aid to Ukraine and is notorious for his disdain for Nato.
He has often hinted at a possible US withdrawal from the alliance if European members do not live up to their defence obligations.
“This more positive relationship between Trump and Meloni could soon sour if Meloni continues her supportive stance on Ukraine and particularly if Italy fails to meet the annual 2 per cent Nato defence budget target,” said James Downes, an international relations scholar at Hong Kong Metropolitan University.
Germany and France – the EU’s economic powerhouses, with heavy influence in the bloc’s policymaking – may be seeing political transitions as well, with both nations’ governments facing challenges by far-right political parties.
The AfD – representatives of which took part in some Trump campaign events and posed with him on election night – is in second place in national polls after Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a no-confidence vote this month, paving the way for a snap election for February.
The AfD is believed to have ties with China. Weidel, the party’s co-chair and chancellor candidate for the February election, speaks Mandarin and has studied in China. The party has sent official delegations to visit China – but an aide to a party official has been accused of spying for Beijing.
Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin, said it was uncertain whether Trump would try to influence the party on China, which is “not as relevant in the short term” since it is unlikely to be part of Germany’s next government.
“AfD … is at odds with Trump on tariffs and EVs, inviting Chinese EVs rather than banning them,” he said.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) party co-chair Alice Weidel at the Bundestag in Berlin on December 16. Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Alternative for Germany (AfD) party co-chair Alice Weidel at the Bundestag in Berlin on December 16. Photo: EPA-EFE>
Germany, long a strong trading partner of China, is vocal about how the EU’s EV tariffs hurts the German car industry, which has significant investments in China.
Le Pen from France’s right-wing National Rally – unlike other far-right figures – has appeared less enthusiastic about Trump’s return, fearing that his proposed tariffs could hurt French interests, especially for farmers, her voter base. She did not endorse Trump during his campaign.
Philippe Le Corre of the Centre for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute does not see Le Pen as someone Trump is interested in, since her political future remains unclear.
After three failed bids for the French presidency, Le Pen is eying another run in 2027. Her party now holds about a third of the seats in the French National Assembly, and helped to bring down President Emmanuel Macron’s government this month.
But she is also facing a trial over suspected embezzlement of European Parliament funds. If convicted, she would be banned from French politics for five years.
Le Corre does not think Le Pen “can be of any help” to Trump unless she becomes president. “I don’t even think he would agree to meet her,” he said.
Le Pen’s China stance has fluctuated over the years. Former National Rally official Herve Juvin congratulated China on its 20th Party Congress in 2022, and was part of a EU parliament delegation to visit Beijing last year.
But Le Pen also opposes the EU’s green energy initiative, proposing to halt wind power development. That would hit China, a major exporter of wind turbines which is now facing an anti-subsidy inquiry by the EU.
If she survives her legal battles and emerges as a favourite for the next French presidency, she is expected to align with Trump to prioritise national interests over the EU or Nato, which could “create an opening for China” to exploit this fragmentation and develop relations with individual EU countries, according to Vanberghen.
Marine Le Pen, head of the National Rally party in France, at the National Assembly in Paris on December 16. Photo: Reuters alt=Marine Le Pen, head of the National Rally party in France, at the National Assembly in Paris on December 16. Photo: Reuters>
The Ukraine war could be another major issue that sees the EU’s far-right split on the position of Trump or China.
While Meloni has been a steadfast supporter of Ukraine, many other far-right leaders in Europe echo Trump’s call to cut off aid to Kyiv and are often criticised by their “pro-Russia” stance, prompting questions over whether they are sceptical about China’s ties with Russia.
Beijing’s partnership with Moscow has become a major source of friction in its relations with Europe.
Some analysts suggest that should Trump, who seems eager to do so, broker an end to the war, it might ease China-EU strains. But Downes of Hong Kong Metropolitan University argued that it might not necessarily be the case, even for Europe’s right.
“EU’s right-wing leaders generally view China’s ties with Russia through the lens of geopolitics, security, and economic interests. [They] may see may see the relationship between China and Russia as a potential challenge to Western dominance and as a strategic alliance that could impact global power dynamics.”
Wang Yiwei, a European studies scholar at Renmin University in Beijing, said that despite similar populist ideas, Europe’s far-right leaders were unlikely to toe Trump’s line at the expense of Europe’s needs.
“The biggest division between the US and the European Union is the difference in their own interests. ‘Making America great again’ will definitely sacrifice the interests of the European Union,” Wang said.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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