Europe has promised to stand by Ukraine against Russia in 2025. But, in reality, it is more than ever caught between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Putin is pushing in the east of the country, where his troops are advancing without being able to make any real inroads. Trump intends to put an end to the conflict as soon as possible, even if he seems incapable of doing so in “24 hours,” as promised during his election campaign. With less than four weeks to go before the president-elect takes office on January 20, 2025, there is nothing to suggest that European capitals will be able to contain the impact of the populist’s return to power. The Russian president said on December 19 that he was ready to meet “at any time.”
It’s true that European leaders are stepping up their meetings in a wide variety of formats (European Union, NATO, Weimar Triangle, Northern Europe, the enlarged “Quint” with the addition of Joe Biden’s US, etc.). They are committed to extending their support for Kyiv, and even to beefing it up if Trump decides to reduce US military support in order to force his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, to sit down at the negotiating table.
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The stakes are high for the continent, almost three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 27 EU and their neighbors, such as the UK and Norway, are aware that European security depends more than ever on Ukraine’s security. This means a Ukraine that has at least been stabilized. If not victorious over Russia throughout its territory, then at least free and democratic, and closely or distantly linked to the EU and NATO.
Distant possibility of a ceasefire
This awareness was evident in front-line states such as Poland and the Baltic States, and has become more pronounced as the conflict has progressed, even in countries such as France that are further from the front, or, like Germany, who are anxious to avoid escalation with a nuclear-armed power. Beyond declarations of intent, however, European capitals have yet to find a way of increasing their support for Kyiv in order to take their destiny into their own hands. And, in the still distant possibility of a ceasefire, they differ on the question of the “security guarantees” to be offered to Kyiv to prevent any new Russian offensive. Whether this means sending ground troops or an invitation to join NATO.
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Publish date : 2024-12-26 04:00:00
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