Turkey’s growing influence in Syria’s situation since the fall of Bashar al-Assad has raised eyebrows in Greece and Cyprus, as Ankara reportedly wants to demarcate maritime zones with the new rulers in Damascus.
Europe is directly impacted as it searches for Russian gas alternatives, and the demarcation of maritime zones will unlock crucial energy projects. This occurs in the context of fierce competition among regional players, while Europe’s position remains fragile.
Since the early hours of 8 December, when Assad left Damascus, a geopolitical game has been taking place. The former ruler’s forces were defeated by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was supported by Turkish forces.
A few days later, Turkey sent an envoy and other high-level officials to start discussions on various matters, making them the first on the scene along with Qatar. Among Ankara’s group were Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the intelligence agency chief Ibrahim Kalin.
By 24 December, media reported that Ankara was in advanced talks with Syria to sign a deal demarcating maritime zones in the Mediterranean Sea.
“We will conclude a maritime jurisdiction agreement with the Syrian administration […] we are working on a contingency plan that includes air, rail, road and communication services in Syria”, Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said.
The news triggered reactions in Athens after a similar deal between Turkey and Libya in December 2019 ignored the existence of the island of Crete.
The EU then described the deal “illegal” because it “infringed upon the sovereign rights of third States.” For its part, Greece said Turkey wants to set a legal precedent with an “illegal” Memorandum of Understanding under international law.
The Cyprus issue
While in the case of Syria, Athens and Nicosia fear that Cyprus’ sovereignty rights will be affected. Turkish forces have occupied the north of Cyprus following an Athens-backed failed coup d’etat in the 1970s. Ankara refuses to relinquish control, making it the only divided country in the EU.
Cypriot government spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis said in a statement that any intention to conclude an agreement between Turkey and Syria, as countries with adjacent coasts, should be “based on international law, specifically the customary international law of the sea as reflected in UNCLOS, and should take into account the rights of the Republic of Cyprus in the area”.
Meanwhile, Turkey has not ratified the UNCLOS, and insists that it is not bound by its provisions that award islands maritime zones.
The future of both Turkey-Syria and Turkey-Libya maritime deals are crucial for the region, as Greece and Turkey have not signed a similar deal amid strong disagreements between the two neighbours.
EU made aware
Greek diplomatic sources explained this week that the borders in the region are European and stressed that the issue has already been raised with the EU in a joint statement with Austria and Cyprus.
They also noted that Syria is facing a “transitional situation” that does not “legitimise anyone to make such an agreement”.
The government in Athens also faces pressure from opposition parties, who call on the ruling centre-right New Democracy party (EPP) to set EU sanctions against Ankara.
The hard-right “Hellenic Solution” party (ECR) – which is on the rise in polls fishing votes from New Democracy – said it had warned about “the Islamic terrorists who occupied Syria are fully controlled by Turkey and that Greece should fight for their non-recognition in any way”.
The developments in Syria and Turkey’s ambitions in the region came as a surprise in Athens as Greece-Turkey relations have been calm for quite some time.
When it comes to Syria, the EU has adopted a wait-and-see approach while it has not taken a position on Turkey’s growing influence in the country.
However, Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen visited Ankara on 17 December, considering migration is high on the EU agenda.
After she acknowledged Turkey’s help in hosting Syrian refugees, she promised to provide Ankara with an additional €1 billion.
In Washington, incoming US President Donald Trump has not revealed his cards but publicly acknowledged Turkey’s role in overthrowing Assad.
Pipeline games
The demarcation of maritime zones is tightly connected with the energy agenda in the region.
For its part, Europe is directly affected as the bloc has been in search for alternatives to Russian gas and the Eastern Mediterranean has a role to play.
However, the complex interests among the players in the region (Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Israel, Egypt) make the equation tough to solve.
Earlier this week, Reuters reported that a delegation from Turkey’s energy ministry will visit Syria “soon” to discuss possible energy cooperation.
Turkey is already providing electricity to some parts of northern Syria where the Turkish army has invaded four times since 2016.
On 23 December, Greece and Israel signed an energy deal aiming to create a “green” electricity corridor from Israel to the EU, via Greece and speed up the Greece-Cyprus-Israel electrical interconnection project.
The latter has been delayed as the Greece-Cyprus section is facing a stalemate.
It’s considered the “world’s longest” subsea high-voltage cable. It will link European transmission networks to Cyprus and later extend to Israel.
Turkey, which has rising tensions with Israel over Gaza, has opposed this project.
Instead, analysts in Athens suggest that Turkey aims to increase its geopolitical leverage and become Europe’s energy hub.
An old, ambitious plan to build a pipeline to transport Qatar’s natural gas to Europe through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey has resurfaced.
Greek media report that another project in the spotlight is connecting western Syria with the existing Arab Gas Pipeline, which connects Syria with Jordan and Egypt and could provide Europe with Egyptian and Israeli natural gas.
However, analysts in Athens estimate that Tel Aviv will not let Turkey handle its main geopolitical weapon.
Lastly, all energy projects under discussion will be affected by Turkey’s future handling of Syria’s Kurds, as Turkish President has threatened with full-scale invasion, a scenario opposed by Israel.
(Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe)
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Publish date : 2024-12-26 21:58:00
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