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Meanwhile, international condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza is growing. Washington may continue to support Benjamin Netanyahu – and US support is crucial to prevent international opposition from restricting Israel’s ability to act as they wish in Gaza. That leaves the UK little room to manoeuvre. However, the incoming Trump administration may equally be just as distracted by issues at home. If US support for Israel is reduced, this may increase the possibility of international pressure on Netanyahu leading to negotiations for peace or at least a longer-term ceasefire.
Given the salience of Gaza for Labour voters, foreign secretary David Lammy will likely want to maintain pressure on Tel Aviv to seek a peaceful resolution. The UK revoked 30 of 350 licenses for the sale of arms to Israel in 2024, as they may be used to commit “a serious violation of international humanitarian law”. To increase pressure, the UK may seek to further restrict arms sales. However, remaining contracts continue to provide crucial parts for the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, particularly parts for F-35 fighter jets. UK arms sales to Israel are also estimated to be worth nearly half a billion pounds, meaning the cost to the UK economy if more licences are revoked would not be insignificant.
3. European Union
Initial attempts to reset UK-EU relations following the July election had only limited success due to the summer break in Brussels. However, since then, Starmer has met Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. The UK has signalled an intent to build on previous deals by looking to appoint another negotiator and by establishing yearly summits with the EU. The UK has also set out negotiation points for mutual benefit such as security (both counter-terrorism and confronting Russian aggression), and on easing trade barriers in key trade areas.
While European leaders will have their own issues to confront domestically in 2025, the change in tone from the UK government towards the EU is good groundwork for potential deals this year.
Trump’s re-election is also significant here. His past comments on European allies and disinterest in international cooperation mean that Europe may need to develop plans to deal with the US being less present as a partner on international challenges such as the Ukraine conflict, international trade deals and climate change. For the UK, a more isolationist US could increase the need for other partnerships, as was the case during his last presidency. Europe is the most obvious candidate.
Trump’s decisions will affect the UK’s relationship with Europe.
Trump’s condemnation of Nato may also increase the need for European Nato members to take a leadership role within the alliance. The UK has played this role in the past, although typically this was in support of the US.
4. Trump
Trump’s election victory means that the UK’s “special relationship” with Washington will look very different than it would have if Kamala Harris had won. Prior to the UK election, Labour figures put in significant effort to build relations with the Republicans. But Lammy has fiercely criticised Trump in the past and a controversy over Labour volunteers helping the Harris campaign appears to have left Trump especially hostile to the Labour government again now.
Trump is, of course, unpredictable, especially on foreign policy, so we cannot rule out the possibility of a reinvigorated special relationship. Nevertheless, Trump’s isolationism and proposed tariffs on imports to the US mean the UK will still need to develop policies to help mitigate decisions coming out of Washington in 2025.
5. Narrative
For any government, foreign policy is an important signal of intentions to both allies and opponents. Lammy has set out “progressive realism” as his approach. However, apart from the Chagos Islands deal with Mauritius, there has been little indication of how this approach will manifest in practice. In 2025, Lammy will need to ensure that “progressive realism” doesn’t become tarred with the same brush as Boris Johnson’s “Global Britain” approach – he can’t allow it to become an empty term.
With the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Syria all at different stages, and the return of the “disruptor-in-chief” to the White House, world politics in 2025 looks like it will continue to be unpredictable. This unpredictability makes the setting of priorities even more important.
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Publish date : 2025-01-03 05:27:00
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