Moldova has not received any gas from Russia since Jan. 1, leaving many homes uncomfortably cold. While the pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria bear the brunt of this energy cutoff, the government in Chișinău is also feeling the strain.
In towns like Comrat in the autonomous region of Gagauzia it’s not just winter outside, it’s also cold inside many apartments.
Ramin Mazur / Panos
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The new year has gotten off to an extremely uncomfortable start for the people of Transnistria. On Jan. 1, the energy company of the breakaway region in the east of Moldova stopped supplying gas to many residential buildings. In other areas it has restricted supplies so that the fuel is only available for cooking, but the heaters remain cold and there is no hot water.
Residents have been advised to plug cracks and hang blankets in front of their windows. All members of a household are advised to gather in a single room. Schools will return to the online learning plans, reminiscent of those used during the pandemic, following the New Year holidays. However, authorities say, hospital services are guaranteed for the time being.
The thin strip of land east of the Dniester River is currently experiencing relatively mild daytime temperatures of up to 10 degrees Celsius. However, an onset of winter with bitter frost remains a looming possibility.
Dispute over debts
The reason for the emergency is the end of gas supplies from Russia, which had continued to flow through Ukrainian territory despite the war. The transit contract between the Russian state-owned company Gazprom and the government in Kyiv expired at the end of the year. Ukraine announced months ago that it would not extend the agreement. In Moldova, however, there was long hope that a compromise could be found at the last minute.
Austria and Slovakia have also been impacted by the cessation of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine. However, the immediate effects are greatest for Moldova and especially for Transnistria. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pro-Western government in Chișinău diversified the supply of gas to the area it controls west of the Dniester and has since also been sourcing gas via Romania.
The Moscow-friendly Transnistria, with its 450,000 inhabitants and energy-intensive industry, remains completely dependent on Russia. Through the end of 2024, 5.7 million cubic meters of gas flowed daily from Russia into the breakaway region.
In theory, alternative supply routes exist, including the TurkStream pipeline through the Black Sea and southeastern Europe. However, Gazprom is demanding that Moldova first settle its debts amounting to more than $700 million. According to Chișinău, however, the outstanding payments are only in the single-digit million range. No agreement in this long-standing dispute over the calculation of previous gas deliveries is in sight.
Economic collapse looms in the long term
At first glance it may come as a surprise that Moscow is allowing Transnistria, of all places, to become the first victim of the gas dispute. The region is primarily Russian-speaking and is well-disposed toward Moscow. However, the welfare of the local population is only of secondary importance to the Kremlin.
The interest in the region, which is also home to a Russian military base and a huge Soviet-era munitions depot, is of a geopolitical nature. Transnistria is a trump card for the Kremlin to keep Moldova within its own sphere of influence. In fact, the current energy crisis is putting the Moldovan government in a tight spot. Under President Maia Sandu, Chișinău has clearly oriented itself toward the West.
If conditions worsen in the breakaway region, they will be felt in the rest of the country. Many residents of Transnistria are Moldovan citizens, and Chișinău cannot be indifferent to their situation. Even before the supply stop, the government had announced that it would buy gas on the European market if necessary in order to supply Transnistria.
However, the resources required for this would be considerable. If cheap Russian gas were to disappear in the long term, many observers believe it could lead to the economic collapse of the region, with unforeseeable consequences for Moldova.
Electricity production depends on Russian gas
Even without such a dramatic turn of events, the halt in gas supplies is having a direct impact on Moldova. Since Moldova’s independence, Chișinău has never really exercised political control over Transnistria. From an economic perspective, however, there are still close ties, particularly in the energy sector.
The Cuciurgan power plant near Dnestrovsc in the south of the region supplied 80% of Moldova’s electricity last year. Until recently, the plant relied on Russian gas. As of Jan. 1, the plant has been using coal to generate electricity. According to the Transnistrian authorities, coal reserves will last for 50 days – but only enough to meet the region’s own needs.
Moldova has taken steps to reduce its dependence on Russia for electricity. Power lines to Romania are under construction. However, Romanian electricity is several times more expensive than that from Transnistria, which had benefited from the cheaper price of Russian gas.
State of emergency in Moldova
That means Moldova must be prepared for higher energy costs, even after the price of gas has already shot up by 30% in recent weeks. A state of emergency has been in place since mid-December because of the energy crisis, with the explicit aim of reducing energy demand. The energy minister had to resign due to the crisis.
Rising energy costs are quickly causing existential hardship for many people in Europe’s poorest country. When inflation rose to 30% in the winter of 2022-23 due to the price of gas, the government came under severe pressure.
Parliamentary elections will be held in the summer. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu secured reelection at the end of October. A referendum that added EU accession as a goal to the constitution was also narrowly approved, despite massive Russian influence.
The current government has similar policy goals as Maia Sandu, but it performs significantly worse than the president in the polls. If voters reject the pro-Western government later this year, the Kremlin will achieve its long-cherished goal after all.
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Publish date : 2025-01-07 02:52:00
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