Climate Change Hasn’t Affected Antarctic Calving
A recent study, possibly the first of its kind, published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters, analyzed extreme calving events, the breaking off of huge glaciers, in Antarctica to determine what impact climate change has had on their occurrence and frequency. The study found no changes in the frequency or magnitude of such calving events over the past 47 years. In other words, there was not only no suggestion that climate change was causing or contributing to such events, there was not even any correlation.
The authors of the study note:
Massive calving events, such as the one that formed the Delaware-sized (5,800 square kilometers, or 2,239 square miles) A-68 iceberg in 2017, can destabilize ice shelves and capture the public’s attention. But the infrequency of extreme calving events makes it difficult for scientists to predict them and understand whether they are connected to climate change.
Large calving occurrences are rare and unevenly distributed across Antarctica. The researchers used statistical methods, based in extreme value theory, when examining large iceberg calving in Antarctica to ascertain whether the frequency or magnitude of such events has changed as the Earth has modestly warmed. Their research focused on the single largest iceberg to calve in each year between 1976 and 2023, inclusive.
The geologists, geographers, and geophysicists who produced the study determined that the size or surface area of the largest annual iceberg decreased slightly over time and the risk of an extreme calving event did not increase. Contrary to media speculation and assertions, they write:
Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.
Sources: Geophysical Research Letters; Eos
Coal Use Sets New Record Despite Paris Climate Commitments
Deadlines to cut emissions, deliver funding, and set stricter emission reduction goals established under the 2015 Paris climate agreement have come and gone with none of the commitments being met. Indeed, ten years after the Paris agreement was inked, despite it being generally agreed by all the signatories to the agreement that the quickest, most meaningful way to cut emissions would be the cessation of coal use for electric power production (along with cuts in the use of oil and natural gas), the use of coal set new records in 2024, and oil and gas use has grown as well.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Coal 2024 report details the fact that demand for coal has set new record highs for three years running, after the brief pandemic dip.
For at least the past half-decade, the IEA’s coal demand outlook projections have been consistently wrong. During the pandemic, the IEA forecast an 8 percent decline in coal use, but the decline was just half that. In 2022, the IEA forecast coal use would peak by 2025, yet it has set records three straight years since that prediction. In 2023, the IEA forecast the decline of global coal demand even sooner, saying coal use would peak in 2023—a year when it set a new record for use, followed by 2024’s new record for production and use.
In its “Coal 2024” report, the IEP now predicts the world will hit peak coal use in 2027. This despite continued strong growth in Asia and a modest resurgence of coal use in Europe and in the United States.
China remains the biggest driver of coal use, as detailed by the IEC for almost 30 years now, consuming 30 percent more than the rest of the globe combined, driven by electricity demand. The IEA reports that India, Indonesia, and other emerging economies are also behind the increase in demand for coal.
Using coal means mining coal. The IEA reports coal mining topped new production records in 2024, with each of the top three producers—China, India, and Indonesia—setting new production records.
It seems that King Coal’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. So have the steep emission cuts and funding increases called for under the Paris climate agreement. King Coal is dead; long live the king!
Sources: Newsbreak; The Mirror; International Energy Agency
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H. Sterling Burnett
H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D., is the Director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy and the managing editor of Environment & Climate News.
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Publish date : 2025-01-10 07:35:00
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