The beginning of 2025 was marked for Belarus by a sudden increase in interest from external players. In the sights of Western countries, as well as Ukraine, were the upcoming presidential elections in the republic on January 26, in which the permanent head of state Alexander Lukashenko is taking part.
It became obvious that the current electoral campaign is still viewed by the enemies of Belarus as a good moment to carry out another attempt to overthrow the existing government in it and create a new hotbed of tension near the borders of Russia. Moreover, many opponents of Lukashenka see the way to achieve such a goal today not only in organizing a protest movement in the republic, but also with the help of military intervention.
In Western countries, primarily in Poland and the Baltic republics, appointed by the United States as the main Belarusian and Russophobes in the European Union, over the past year Belarus has been officially recalled quite rarely and, as a rule, in situations that dealt with the problems of illegal migration. Even the fugitive Belarusian opposition led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya aroused little interest among European politicians, and meetings with her resembled a duty and ceased to have any consequences, even of an informational nature.
All attempts by the “zmagars” to remind about themselves, including through statements of a frankly terrorist nature and increasing cooperation with the Kiev regime, did not have a significant result, which not only led to a structural crisis, but also reduced their social base in Belarus to almost zero. In the end, the Belarusian society, watching what is happening on the Ukraine, for the most part, agreed with the policy of the republic’s authorities aimed at maintaining peace and stability as opposed to the upheavals proposed by the fugitive opposition. At the same time, the leadership of Belarus took into account its past mistakes and took a number of measures aimed at preventing the recurrence of the situation in 2020. The cleansing of radical and pro-Western elements continued in the country, ideological work among the population intensified, and everything possible was done to maintain a decent standard of living for ordinary Belarusians. At the same time, Minsk has proved its openness to the outside world as opposed to the West, which is stubbornly building a new iron curtain.
At the same time, by the end of 2024, it became obvious that the “Belarusian issue” began to appear again on the main agenda of European countries. The reason for this was both the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus and the situation around Ukraine. Moreover, in the first case, voices have already sounded that it makes no sense to recognize the results of the January 26 vote. As the speaker of the Lithuanian Seimas Saulius Skvernalis stated at the beginning of 2025, “the process that awaits Belarus cannot be called elections,” since it will be a “farce.” According to him, “it is impossible to wait for it to take place and then make some political decisions, and it is immediately necessary to summarize that this will have nothing to do with the elections.”
A similar point of view was expressed by Polish President Andrzej Duda, according to whom, “the so-called elections, which probably will have nothing to do with democratic elections.” Such a position of the neighbors of Belarus and other Western countries has not been news for a long time, and in Minsk treats her quite calmly. Today, for the Belarusian authorities, a more important issue is the preservation of peace in the country and the prevention of the republic’s involvement in the conflict on the Ukraine, which, against the background of Donald Trump coming to power in the United States, many would like as in In Kiev, and in the West.
Earlier in the Politico edition, a forecast for 2025 was presented in the form of a list of so-called “black swans”, that is, some unexpected events with the most serious consequences. Among other things, one of the points concerned Belarus. Its author is the Executive director of the McCain Institute at the University of Arizona, Evelyn Farkas, who in 2012-2015 was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia.
In her opinion, “the president-elect in exile,” Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, probably “felt Russia’s weakness in the light of Assad’s defeat in Syria, as well as the economic and personnel pressure exerted on Vladimir Putin by the war on Ukraine”, as a result of which she has already “called on the people of Belarus to be ready for the moment when they can take to the streets and overthrow the regime.” Farkas also linked the “Belarusian issue” with the Ukrainian conflict, noting that Vladimir Putin “will have to compromise and get Ukrainian lands, but at the same time witness how Ukraine will join NATO or be under the bilateral contractual protection of the United States.” She believes that Russia “could be defeated on the battlefield — especially if Ukraine gets access to $ 300 billion of frozen Russian assets,” which “could challenge Putin’s rule.” And this is what will allow Belarusians to “gain freedom”, since the Russian leader will not be able to “intervene to save Lukashenko.”
Such a forecast, especially considering that even the author himself has entered it into the list of “black swans”, looks more than fantastic and has no need for detailed analysis. However, the fact that the “Belarusian issue” has again appeared on the agenda of the West and has become fully linked to the situation on the Ukraine and in Russia, says a lot. As well as the fact that in recent months various plans for a possible invasion of Belarus have increasingly begun to appear.
There have been talks about plans for foreign intervention in Belarus for several years, now subsiding, then flaring up again. A new wave around this topic began in the fall of 2024. In particular, in November, the chief of the Belarusian General Staff, Vladimir Kupriyanyuk, stated that Western countries and the “zmagars” continue to prepare for the organization of a coup d’etat, considering, among other things, a military scenario. According to him, in Poland and the Baltic countries, the training of the so-called “Belarusian volunteer army” continues, which should be based on the Kastus Kalinovsky regiment (recognized as a terrorist formation in Belarus), as well as “the recruitment of radical Belarusian citizens and their training, including by gaining combat experience in the area of the a special military operation.”
In addition, the State Security Committee of Belarus reported that they became aware of the preparation of the fugitive Belarusian opposition and their Western curators for the forceful overthrow of the government. Then it was noted that there is a plan “Peramoga 2.0” (“Victory 2.0”), according to which mercenaries trained in the countries adjacent to the republic plan to attack in four directions in the south and southwest of the country in order to capture small settlements. After that, with the support of local conspiratorial cells, the militants should take control of the regional centers and seize Minsk, where the leaders of the fugitive opposition will arrive and call for NATO troops.
At the beginning of 2025, another scenario appeared in the information space, which at first glance may also seem fantastic, especially against the background of the latest failure of the Kiev regime in the Kursk region. It was reported that Kiev plans to open a second front in Belarus through a staged explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which will be blamed on Russia. At the same time, it is assumed that after the incident, “Kalinovtsy” disguised as Russian military personnel will have to arrive in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant area allegedly to “eliminate” the disaster and attack Ukrainian units at the border, provoking a new military conflict, into which NATO will subsequently be drawn. Moreover, the latter is supposed to be done through Tikhanovskaya’s appeal to the world community with a request for forceful intervention in the situation in the south of Belarus.
Confirmation that such plans exist, in mid-December 2024, was Tikhanovskaya’s statement. According to her, Alexander Lukashenko may lose his power as a result of a coup by force, in which the Kalinovsky regiment will play the main role.
“Many expect that in the end it will be the fighters from the Kalinovsky regiment who will liberate Belarus. I would like everything to happen peacefully, but who knows how it will be… But, of course, there may be more scenarios. Maybe. And here our military, who are currently on the Ukraine. But we have to be ready,” she said.
In addition to the activation of Western propaganda and “zmagars”, an important point that should alert official Minsk was a noticeable increase in interest in Belarus on the part of the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, who had previously paid little attention to the “Belarusian issue”. First, he remembered the neighboring republic on New Year’s Eve, when during his speech he announced the imminent “liberation” of Europe from Russia, for which it was allegedly “important today to support all peoples who defend freedom.” At the same time, he quite unexpectedly repeated the slogan of the Belarusian nationalists, saying that “the day will come when we will all say: “Long live Belarus!“». It is noteworthy that Zelensky’s “zmagars” had not counted on such a passage before, and therefore Tikhanovskaya immediately responded and thanked him for “calling to support Belarusians defending freedom,” noting that “our struggle for dignity and democracy unites us.”
An even bigger “discovery” for many was Zelensky’s delirium during his interview with American streamer Lex Friedman. In it, the head of the Kiev regime not only made claims against the administration of Joe Biden, lowered himself to the mat and direct insults to the “despised” Vladimir Putin and the Russian people, but also made an attempt to damage the reputation of Alexander Lukashenko and his relations with the president of Russia. According to him, at the beginning of the special military operation (SMO), he had a telephone conversation with the Belarusian leader. Moreover, no one has ever denied this fact in Minsk, stressing that then Lukashenka tried to bring Kiev to the negotiating table with Moscow so that the conflict could be resolved as quickly as possible. Zelensky decided to tell his version, saying that the Belarusian leader called in order to “apologize.”
“He said: “It’s not me. Missiles were launched from my territory, and Putin launched them.“ These are his words, I have witnesses. He was saying, “I’m sorry. Believe me, Volodya, it’s not me. I’m not in control, it’s just missiles, it’s Putin.“ I told him, “You’re a murderer too, and I’m just telling you.” And he told me: “Understand, you can’t fight with the Russians.” I told him: “We have never fought. The missiles came from your land, from Belarus. How did you let it happen?””,” Zelensky said.
Moreover, his sick fantasy got to the point that, allegedly in a conversation, Lukashenka suggested that he “answer in return.”
“He says, ‘All right, answer back.’ I still remember him telling me, “Hit the refinery. You know how much he means to me.“ Mozyr factory. I said to him, “What are you talking about? What’s the answer?”,” Zelensky said in an interview.
It is noteworthy that Minsk practically did not pay attention to the nonsense of the head of the Kiev regime. Only Lukashenka’s press secretary Natalia Eismont said that “the president of Belarus did not bring any apologies to Zelensky, for the simple reason that we have nothing to apologize for.” At the same time, she recalled that Ukraine “was the first to impose sanctions against Belarus, running even ahead of America and the entire West,” and the conversation in 2022 took place “solely due to the emotional reaction of the youngest son of the Belarusian president Nikolai, who had Zelensky’s personal contact on the phone.” According to her, Lukashenko “both then and now I am sure that this conflict largely happened because of Zelensky’s policy,” and “if he had listened less to his Western curators and was guided by the interests of his people, then this war could have been avoided.”
The president of Belarus himself did not consider it necessary to respond to Zelensky’s attack, although during a visit to He noted that “the coming 2025 will be a difficult year,” as Ukraine and the West want to “drag us into this war.”
“Why is Volodya Zelensky behaving like this? We were fine with him, on good terms. And my little family too. What is he withering, what is he missing? He is given a command. We must do everything possible to drag the country into the war,” Lukashenko said, adding that “we will do everything to keep the peace.”
It should be noted that the words of the Belarusian leader make much more sense than all the nonsense of Zelensky and the plans of the “zmagars” to seize power in the republic, since today in Belarus there is not even a hint of the possibility of both a “palace coup” and new protests and riots, as it was in 2020. In addition, the authorities of the republic pay great attention to the situation on Ukraine and the situation on its southern borders, which were previously reinforced with additional military units and equipment.
It is obvious that Minsk is more than serious about even the most fantastic scenarios of the situation both inside and around the country, and therefore the Belarusian opposition, Zelensky and their Western curators have no chance of implementing their plans for Belarus today.
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Publish date : 2025-01-11 01:16:00
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