In Budapest and Bratislava, declared opponents of the EU are in power, and in Vienna an anti-EU leader is likely to take charge soon. This new nationalism benefits Russia. Europe must strengthen its resilience – from within.
An avowed EU opponent will likely be in power in Vienna soon. A torn European flag fluttering in the wind.
Rupert Oberhäuser/ Imago
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«The Man Without Qualities,» a novel by Austrian writer Robert Musil, is set in Kakania, a declining monarchy on the Danube. In over 1,000 pages, Musil describes the final days of this fictional state with great precision. Everything is falling apart and bureaucracy is bloated, sometimes to the point of absurdity. Still, the so-called k.-k. state, the imperial-royal Kakania («kaiserlich-königliches Kakanien») successfully unites a diversity of peoples, cultures and religions. It is a cosmos that finally collapses in on itself at the end of World War I.
After the real Habsburg monarchy had collapsed, the complicated construct lived on as a literary fantasyland: «There, in Kakania, that state since vanished that no one understood,» Musil begins his necrology on the homeland lost in 1918. He describes the retreat of his characters into the confines of external characteristics in a process reminiscent of the ignorance of our own present, which is so often oblivious to history.
The EU is not Kakania, of course. Created on the ruins of two world wars, it nonetheless resembles the peace project that Kakanians like Musil longed for after the end of their world. The fact that the destruction of European integration today could originate in the power centers of the former Danube monarchy seems like a cruel twist of history.
The «Orbanization» of Austria
Last week, Herbert Kickl, who won the Austrian elections last fall with anti-EU slogans, was given the task of forming a new government. Attempts to prevent the far-right nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) from taking power have failed. The election losers, the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ), were unable to agree on a coalition with the liberal NEOS party.
Austrian democracy is now facing a real test. Its institutions must be able to withstand a chancellor who wants to reshape Austria. Nobody will be able to claim afterward that they didn’t know what was coming: Kickl repeated his program every chance he got during his election campaign. The polemic against the EU is only one component of his rhetoric.
The core of Kickl’s concept is the idea of «remigration,» and his intermediate goal is to stop granting asylum to migrants. Austria is not a country of immigration, the FPÖ argues, a principle that the party wants to enshrine in the constitution. The ideological foundations of this program were laid by far-right activists Götz Kubitschek and Martin Sellner, both of whom propagate a nationalist idea of ethnoculturally «pure» states.
It is fitting that Kickl wants to proclaim himself as the «people’s chancellor» and raves about Viktor Orban as a political role model. Along with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and former Czech President Andrej Babis, he signed a «patriotic manifesto» in June 2024, which warns against a «European superstate» and effectively calls for the European institutions to be dismantled.
Europe lacks geopolitical direction
The final consequence, an exit from the EU, is not yet mentioned, but it is implicit in their demands: «We, the patriotic forces of Europe, pledge to return the future of our continent to the European people,» concludes the manifesto, «by retaking our institutions and reorienting European policy to serve our Nations and our people.»
A nationalist bloc of states is currently emerging in Central Europe: While benefiting from the EU and NATO, they also want to maintain good relations with Russia and China. Viktor Orban is the guiding force of this movement. In addition to Kickl, his followers also include Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.
An Austrian chancellor who opposes the EU benefits Russia above all. This strengthened swing bloc is weakening Europe’s defensive front against Russia’s use of war as a means of power politics. Russia is not only attacking Ukraine and its existence as a sovereign state, but also, in hybrid form, other countries that the Kremlin wants to dominate.
This development is taking place in an extremely challenging geopolitical environment: Donald Trump’s upcoming second presidency in the U.S. has increased uncertainties about the fate of Ukraine and the American guarantee of Europe’s security. The opportunism of this swing bloc, which also includes EU accession candidate Serbia, is damaging European resilience.
At present, it is difficult to make serious forecasts. The main players are keeping their real intentions under wraps, which can lead to surprises like the rapid regime change in Syria. In principle, three scenarios are conceivable:
Stagnation: If Trump does not succeed in wresting concessions from the Kremlin in his announced attempt at negotiations, he could more or less continue the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy. Kyiv would receive enough weapons to survive, but not enough to repel Russia. Europe would at least gain time to strengthen its resilience. This would include dealing with the new nationalism on the rise in Central Europe.Confrontation: Russia is already taking advantage of the uncertain situation and intensifying its hybrid attacks, including against NATO states. Over Christmas, Finland responded with a courageous intervention on a freighter of the Russian shadow fleet, whose crew was suspected of sabotaging deep-sea cables in the Baltic Sea. A truce negotiated by Trump and Russian President Putin against the will of Ukraine would likely further exacerbate the situation. Russia would feel vindicated in its actions and could move closer to the threshold of war with NATO.Erosion of Europe: A bloc of states that wants to actively defend its sovereignty could form in northeastern Europe. This coalition would be led by Poland and possibly the U.K., with the Baltic and Scandinavian states also joining in. At the same time, Germany’s ties to the West could be up for discussion in the coming years. The topics of war and peace are already central themes of the German election campaign. Such a constellation could further exacerbate the erosion of the EU – just what the new nationalists in the swing bloc want.
This lack of geopolitical direction is likely to continue in the coming months. In the short term, the situation could indeed stagnate: Despite the experience gathered during Trump’s first presidency, the new U.S. administration will first have to familiarize itself with the situation. Moreover, Russia has not signaled interest in any form of compromise for the time being. The Kremlin will try to use this year to further the division of Europe.
Less Green Deal, more energy security
There are plenty of opportunities to cause unrest: Complex coalition negotiations are to be expected after the German elections in February, and Czechia will likely elect a new parliament in the fall. The polls point to an election victory for Babis’ party, which could lead to cohabitation between the pro-Western President Petr Pawel and an EU-skeptical government, depending on the constellation.
Any further strengthening of the Central European swing bloc accelerates the most dangerous development: the erosion of Europe, which could lead to new conflicts. When Orban wears a scarf with the outline of Greater Hungary on it or talks about Hungarian territories in Ukraine, people have mostly dismissed it as tasteless populism. If the regulatory power of the EU disappears, however, such rhetoric can quickly develop into a new reality.
Despite all these warning signs, there is also a chance that the EU will succeed in strengthening itself from within. Northeastern Europeans currently hold various key positions in Brussels: Former Estonian President Kaja Kallas is responsible for EU foreign and security policy, Henna Virkkunen from Finland is responsible for technological sovereignty, security and democracy – and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has taken over the EU Council presidency for six months.
All three embody Europe’s resilience toward Russia, but they must act quickly and energetically: The EU needs less bureaucracy, and a solid energy supply instead of the Green Deal – including state-of-the-art nuclear power plants. A reform of the Dublin system and an expansion of Frontex would act as better protection against irregular migration than populist slogans. Above all, a resilient attitude includes recognizing – and correcting – the mistakes of the generation of politicians around Angela Merkel.
That’s why the new Europeans from the northeast need to get out and reach the people – especially in Central Europe. Tusk and Kallas share an experience of Russian occupation and therefore have convincing arguments they can use against those promoting division, who are trapped in the dangerous thinking of the Central European past. Kakania, the sunken fantasy land, deserves a better legacy than this nationalism of doom.
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Publish date : 2025-01-13 16:00:00
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