Could 2025 be Donald Tusk’s year?
Populists On The March
Populist parties and politicians are likely to gain ground across the EU in 2025. Germany is starting the year in election mode, with a parliamentary vote on February 23. While a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union and center-left Social Democratic Party is the most likely outcome, the far-right Alternative For Germany party is likely to finish runner-up with around 20 percent of the vote — which would be its highest score ever nationally.
In France, the government is limping on with the tacit support of the far right until new snap elections can be called in July. Governments in Spain and the Netherlands are wobbly and could fall this year. Farther east, the Czech billionaire populist Andrej Babis is likely to win the elections in October, bringing Prague politically closer to Hungary and Slovakia.
And in Austria, the far-right Freedom Party was recently tasked to form a government for the first time ever, potentially aligning Vienna to a growing Central European populist bloc.
Poland is the outlier here, and there is an argument that its leader, the pro-Western Donald Tusk, is now the strongest politician in the EU — helped along by his country holding the EU presidency, enjoying warm relations with Washington, and being the biggest military spender in terms of percentage of GDP in NATO.
But even Warsaw is distracted by elections with a presidential poll on May 18 and a potential second round on June 1. Tusk’s ally, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, is the early front-runner and if he wins would consolidate Tusk’s power in the country. The conservative Law and Justice party nominee Karol Nawrocki will certainly put up a fight, and that battle will consume the country in the spring.
Looking Ahead
NATO’s chiefs of defense meet in Brussels on January 15-16. It will be Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer’s last meeting as the chair of the alliance’s powerful military committee after nearly four years at the helm. At the end of the meeting, he is expected to comment on the current state of the Ukraine war, Russia’s military threat to the alliance, and possibly the recent statements from Trump regarding Greenland and Canada.
That’s all for this week. Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at [email protected].
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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Publish date : 2025-01-14 02:33:00
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