On Boxing Day, Finnish authorities detained the Eagle S, a Russian oil tanker suspected of damaging a key power cable and four telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea by dragging its anchor across the seabed. The incident was the latest in a series of covert Russian operations targeting Europe’s physical infrastructure and political stability – part of the Kremlin’s ‘hybrid war’ strategy.
Moscow denied any involvement, but Finnish officials accused Russia of sabotage. Investigators boarding the vessel reportedly found spy equipment, intensifying suspicions. The incidents have prompted NATO to enhance its military presence in the region to safeguard essential communication and energy links.
A surge in hybrid operations
Last year saw a dramatic rise in documented Russian hybrid warfare activities across Europe. The number stood at 44 incidents in 2024, up from just 13 in 2023, according to research from Leiden University. The activities included a fire that destroyed Warsaw’s largest shopping centre, the assassination of a Russian defector, and electoral interference in Romania. Russia is suspected of involvement in at least 56 acts of sabotage, vandalism, influence operations or targeted violence across Europe since 2022, the research showed.
“Not only is the number of incidents increasing, but they are also expanding geographically,” said Bart Schuurman, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden. Previously concentrated in Scandinavia and the Baltics, these operations have now shifted westward, with countries like France and Germany becoming new targets.
As a result, “European governments are in the process of waking up,” according to MEP Riho Terras, a former Estonian chief of defence.
From assassinations to infrastructure sabotage
In his first address to the European Parliament in Brussels, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned last Monday that Europe is “not at war, but we are not at peace either.” That’s a sentiment that has resonated in northern and eastern Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Incidents such as border provocations and cable cutting by Russia have become frequent, spanning from the Arctic Circle to the Black Sea.
“For [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, Ukraine is just one battlefield in a broader confrontation with the West,” said Mark Galeotti, a Kremlin expert. “Since last year, the gloves have come off.”
The tactics employed by Moscow range from physical sabotage to cyberattacks to election interference. In early 2024, a plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of German defence giant Rheinmetall, was foiled by German security forces. Papperger had announced plans to build a Panther tank factory in Ukraine, making him a key target.
Russia’s aim, experts say, is to sow fear, doubt and division in Europe, ultimately making coordinated action against Moscow hard to come by.
Last year, Romanian intelligence agencies concluded that Russia had orchestrated a sophisticated social media campaign, particularly on TikTok, to bolster the candidacy of far-right, pro-Russian politician Calin Georgescu in the presidential election.
“Citizens are becoming anxious and are turning to Kremlin-friendly politicians. In this way, the support of the West for Ukraine can be undermined,” said Schuurman.
Attribution challenges
Moscow frequently recruits low-level operatives that are difficult to trace back to the Kremlin. Similarly, Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers operates under flags of convenience and intricate ownership structures. “The Russians don’t leave a note,” Schuurman told The Parliament.
This makes pinpointing Russian involvement a challenge. Some incidents, such as train derailments in Sweden initially blamed on sabotage, were later found to have natural causes. This ambiguity often works in Moscow’s favour.
“We must avoid both overestimating and underestimating the threat. Treating every incident as a Russian plot risks turning Putin into a James Bond villain,” Galeotti said.
Cable cutting a tactic in vogue
The ambiguity makes it especially difficult in countering sabotage in European waters. Since 2014, more than 160 Russian civilian vessels have engaged in espionage activities in the North Sea, lingering for suspiciously long periods of time near key infrastructure, such as cables and pipelines.
“We have seen an increase in activities by Russian ships for a long time, but certainly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” said Schuurman. Moscow, he explained, maps out exactly where data, energy and other infrastructure cables are located with the aim of sabotage and espionage. Several instances of cables being cut have been reported in the Baltics since 2023, with three in little over a month taking place between last November and December.
“There is not that much we can do against it, and they [Russia] have found a soft underbelly,” Terras said.
The issues caused by cutting cables are not often critical; the impact is generally financial. Reduced energy supplies mean rising energy costs for consumers, and the repair of these cables is costly and timely.
Finland’s Fingrid company said repairs to the Estlink2 cable damaged in December could last until the end of July and cost tens of millions of euros. The cable, which carries electricity between Estonia and Finland, is suspected to have been damaged by the oil tanker Eagle S. Finnish authorities now claim the ship was preparing to cut a second power cable.
NATO is currently enhancing its military presence in the Baltic Sea, while Estonia has deployed its Raju patrol boat to watch over Estlink1.
But for Terras, there needs to be more coordination among EU and NATO countries. “We need to have a register of the [shadow] ships. We have to have that kind of information sharing between our European member states and NATO member states,” he said.
European nations must be prepared to face further incidents in the Baltic Sea following the recent damage to undersea infrastructure, leaders of NATO countries in the region said last week ahead of a security meeting in Helsinki.
Europe’s response
The EU has already imposed sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, as well as 16 individuals and three entities linked to destabilising actions, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
While Rutte is asking for increased defence spending from European NATO members, experts suggest prioritising counterintelligence investments to fend off Russia’s destabilising efforts. “If Europe redirected the cost of an F-35 fighter jet to counterintelligence, we’d already be in a stronger position,” said Schuurman.
Regardless, as the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches and Moscow’s hybrid war escalates, Galeotti cautioned that “governments and security services must work better together to identify and counter these threats.”
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Publish date : 2025-01-21 06:01:00
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