With Russia’s military aggression and China’s economic leverage reshaping the geopolitical landscape, Europe has little choice but to strengthen its transatlantic ties. Dreams of sovereignty and strategic autonomy have been shattered.
However exasperating Trump’s antics may seem, Europe cannot effectively deter or contain a hostile Russia without close U.S. cooperation.
Samuel Corum / Getty
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When Donald Trump was elected U.S. president on Nov. 8, 2016, Europe was stunned. The real estate tycoon and reality TV star seemed like an alien presence on the political stage. He eschewed the carefully measured rhetoric of traditional politics, instead focusing on projecting himself as a triumphant entrepreneur and aging playboy.
For Europeans, the fact that this figure replaced the cerebral, progressive Barack Obama was unsettling – just as it was for the traditionally «liberal» East Coast elite, the Democratic Party and the cultural hubs of California’s entertainment and tech industries.
Apparently, there was another America that had been largely overlooked: economically left behind or consumed by fears of decline, culturally and socially out of sync with the latest trends, and politically marginalized as both Democrats and Republicans focused on catering to the educated middle and upper classes. It was precisely this America that chose the supposed underdog, Donald Trump, as its champion. His brash, confrontational and hypermasculine style resonated powerfully with them.
Merkel’s declaration of no confidence
Europe greeted Donald Trump’s election with a mix of scorn and defiance. Instead of following the historic presidency of Barack Obama by electing Hillary Rodham Clinton – the first female president – Americans opted for a candidate who represented the antithesis of progressivism.
Obama had hoped Europe would carry forward his legacy of progress. Just eight days after the election, he met Angela Merkel for a three-hour dinner in Berlin, encouraging her to seek another term in office. In the months that followed, international media anointed Merkel as the «leader of the free world,» a title traditionally reserved for the U.S. president.
In her congratulatory message to Trump, Merkel stated that cooperation with the U.S. would depend on a commitment to shared values, which she enumerated: «democracy, freedom and respect for the law and the dignity of man, independent of origin, skin color, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political views.»
This carefully worded statement was less a welcome than a warning – a veiled declaration of no confidence that defined her interactions with Trump. One iconic moment came in March 2017, during Merkel’s visit to the White House, when Trump appeared to ignore her offer of a handshake. The images of Merkel’s restrained expressions dominated headlines, with her gestures analyzed in exhaustive detail. At a bilateral meeting in Biarritz during the G7 summit in 2019, Merkel’s eye-roll in response to one of Trump’s remarks was a clear sign of her irritation.
Merkel’s relationship with Trump mirrored Europe’s broader struggle to navigate his presidency. While French President Emmanuel Macron tried to charm Trump with lavish ceremonies and a famously forceful handshake, much of Europe seemed to identify more with Merkel’s eye-roll. At G7 meetings and NATO summits, these tensions played out in frequent and often awkward confrontations between Trump and his European counterparts.
The dream of autonomy
Trump’s unwillingness to accommodate the Europeans – viewing allies as burdensome relatives who exploited America’s goodwill – was met with European condescension toward the supposed parvenu in the White House.
From this mutual irritation, Emmanuel Macron sought an opportunity. The ambitious French president saw Trump’s presidency as the perfect moment to nudge Germany toward decoupling Europe from the United States – reviving an old Gaullist dream for France, which has always resisted accepting the clear dominance of the Anglo-American world. Macron championed European «sovereignty» and «autonomy,» painting a vision of a continent standing as an independent power bloc, equidistant from Washington and Beijing.
Eight years later, the reelected Trump faces a changed Europe. The confidence that defined Europe during his first term has evaporated. There is no longer any talk of autonomy and sovereignty.
Since Trump’s recent victory, European leaders have been scrambling to win his favor. Macron hosted Trump in Paris to mark the reopening of the renovated Notre-Dame Cathedral, while the German chancellor has already spoken with Trump twice by phone. According to a press release after their second call, both sides «agreed to work together toward a return to peace in Europe.»
Farewell to illusions
Europe has shed many of its geopolitical illusions in recent years. Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has exposed the continent’s inability to counter Moscow’s imperial ambitions without American support. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. resumed its traditional role as Europe’s protector – a development met with relief on the continent.
At the same time, Europe has learned that China is far from the benevolent economic partner it once seemed. Xi Jinping’s performance at Davos in January 2017, where he was applauded for presenting himself as a defender of globalization against Trump’s America, now feels like a distant memory Today, China is increasingly assertive, undermining Europe’s industrial base with unfair competition and forging closer ties with a hostile Russia.
The Europe that Trump will face in his second term is a continent marked by insecurity and fragmentation. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán seizes every opportunity to underscore Europe’s vulnerabilities, cultivating close ties with Russia and China to challenge the European mainstream. He has delayed aid to Ukraine, obstructed Sweden’s NATO membership and positioned himself as Trump’s most enthusiastic supporter.
Meanwhile, Macron’s wings have been considerably clipped. His vision for European renewal has faltered. France’s global influence, especially in Africa, is waning, and Macron’s domestic challenges have left him politically hobbled. In Germany, the «coalition for progress» under a weak Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been paralyzed by internal discord. Scholz lacks the international clout of his predecessor, Angela Merkel, who once served as a dealmaker in Brussels and a key figure at G7 and G20 summits.
Europeans in distress
The stark reality is that in the brutal power politics of today’s geopolitics, Europe cannot hold its ground alone. Under pressure from Russia’s military aggression and China’s economic dominance, even Europe’s major players – Germany, France and the UK – find themselves cornered. Neither individually nor collectively can they craft effective counter-strategies. In this context, a close alliance with the United States is not just preferable but indispensable, deepening economic and technological dependence on Washington.
This dependency is glaringly evident in the context of ending the war in Ukraine. Everyone knows the outcome hinges on two men: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Europe, despite its security order being the subject of U.S.-Russia negotiations, is relegated to the sidelines – a consequence of its own passivity. The Europeans were too willing to let President Joe Biden take the lead on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, forfeiting any semblance of leadership.
When Trump first entered the White House in January 2017, the world was comparatively tranquil. From a Western perspective, armed conflicts were limited to the periphery. For the most part, the West turned a blind eye to the annexation of Crimea. The vision – or perhaps the illusion – of globalization, along with the aspiration for a shared «global governance» among states, still reigned. The G20 summits, created in response to the 2008 financial crisis, embodied this vision. Back then, Europe, with its embrace of institutionalized multilateralism, saw itself as the vanguard of a more rational, cooperative world order.
Eight years later, in January 2025, little remains of that vision. Fantasies of sovereignty and autonomy have been brutally shattered by the realities of global power struggles. For Europe, opposing or even distancing itself from Trump’s America is no longer a viable option.
Deterrence and containment
No matter how exasperating Trump’s antics may seem, Europe cannot effectively deter or contain a hostile Russia without close cooperation with the United States. Similarly, China’s ambitions for regional and global dominance can only be curtailed if democracies unite under America’s leadership. Economically and technologically, Europe faces the growing risk of isolation and falling behind.
This reality has dawned on many of Europe’s key leaders: from Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. A sense of renewed realism has taken hold in many European capitals. Macron and Scholz are adapting to this paradigm.
Given this shift, the confrontational scenes that marked Trump’s first term – often featuring Europeans clashing with the American president – are unlikely to recur in his second. European leaders are now more inclined to pursue bilateral ties with Washington to secure favorable treatment. Moreover, they are prepared to offer more in return to guarantee U.S. protection and maintain access to American markets. The new geopolitical landscape has left Europe little choice but to embrace a more pragmatic realpolitik.
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Publish date : 2025-01-21 01:50:00
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