An additional trigger could be the Belarusian presidential elections taking place in less than a week, this Sunday; potential riots and unrest after the polls could cause more opposition supporters to attempt to leave the country.
“It’s possible that regime critics, who will be attacked by the Secret Service of Belarus, will try to cross the border – we, of course, would open the doors to them,” Duszczyk said, adding this could add to the regular migration pressure.
Strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko’s election win in 2020 triggered unprecedented mass demonstrations against election rigging by the regime in Minsk.
Police had violently pacified the protests, with human rights groups saying some 30,000 protesters and opposition figures had been detained in connection with them.
This time around, the Belarussian opposition said it would not encourage people to take to the streets.
“I expect the regime to intensify repression in the short term, targeting activists, independent voices, and anyone showing dissent – but cracks within the system are growing,” Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told Euractiv.
Her diplomatic advisor, Dzianis Kuchynski, said he believes that given the growing instability of his regime, Lukashenka may further escalate his tactics.
“His alliance with Putin emboldens him to act recklessly, creating threats not only to Belarus’ neighbours but to European security as a whole,” Kuchynski told Euractiv, calling on the EU to counter the provocations.
Extending the ‘Eastern Shield’
Polish officials stress that the border infrastructure should be seen as a bulwark designed to protect the whole of Europe, not only Poland.
Beyond the barrier to mitigate migration pressures, Warsaw launched the ‘Eastern Shield’ project earlier last year, a Maginot Line-type fortification to stop Russian tanks.
The plan involves bolstering border security with anti-tank defences, electronic and aerial surveillance and military bases.
With costs rising, Warsaw is looking for funding, which could also come through a European Commission proposal put forward in December that would see EU frontline countries receive an additional $178 million to upgrade electronic surveillance equipment, improve telecommunication networks and counter-drone intrusions.
Defence officials privately admit that the Maginot Line example – a strip of fortifications on the German-French border that failed to stop Nazi Germany’s invasion – is a reminder that no extensive fortifications guarantee stopping a potential enemy.
But to many of them, the experience of the war in Ukraine, which built fortifications on the border with Russia in the Kherson region, indicates that fortifications in modern warfare have not become obsolete.
As soon as it is completed – the Polish government aims for 2028 at the latest – it will run behind the anti-migrant wall, structured in three rows, with anti-tank ditches, rows of hedgehogs, and potentially mined areas.
“If Ukraine had had something like this before 2022, perhaps history would be different now,” the deputy chief of the General Staff, Stanisław Czosnek, told reporters.
(mk)
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Publish date : 2025-01-21 11:27:00
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