January 22, 2025 –
Mariia Didkovska
–
Articles and Commentary
Three Seas Initiative Summit in Warsaw in 2017 featuring US President Donald Trump. Photo: Krzysztof Sitkowski / wikimedia.org
The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) is a regional collaboration platform uniting 13 EU member states situated between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas. It includes Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The Three Seas Initiative – bridging history and modern challenges
The Three Seas Initiative (3SI), launched in 2016, is often compared to the historical “Intermarium” concept. However, it diverges significantly in its focus. Unlike its geopolitical predecessor, 3SI is an infrastructural and economic collaboration aimed at strengthening Central Europe’s connectivity and reducing Russian influence.
Backed by Poland, the initiative has over 140 active projects targeting energy independence and modernization. Its relevance has grown amid the war in Ukraine, highlighting the need for robust infrastructure links across the region. Projects like Rail Baltica – a high-speed railway connecting Tallinn to Warsaw – now hold dual importance, improving civilian connectivity while supporting NATO’s strategic supply chain.
While primarily economic, 3SI’s objectives have taken on a military dimension in the face of rising regional security challenges, solidifying its role as a vital framework for Central Europe’s resilience.
Behind the scenes of US involvement in the Three Seas Initiative
Strategic partnerships in the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) have been formed not just with neighbouring Germany and the European Commission, but also with distant allies like Japan and the United States. What motivates these far-off nations to invest in this European project? For both the US and Japan, China’s growing influence in Central and Eastern Europe is seen as a significant threat. With their support, the 3SI became a crucial counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road and 14+1 initiatives, which sought to deepen its presence in the region.
At the same time, the US aims to curb Russia’s influence in the region, with the stakes extending beyond political considerations. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent decline in Russian gas exports, Europe turned to the US as a key supplier of LNG (liquefied natural gas), which now accounts for nearly half of Europe’s LNG imports. This shift has not only reshaped the energy landscape but also brought substantial economic benefits to the US, driving increased revenues and supporting domestic job creation through rising oil and gas production.
Under the Biden administration, expanding LNG exports has been a key element of foreign policy, particularly in terms of supporting the US middle class. However, on January 26th 2024, Biden announced a “temporary pause” on some LNG export decisions, motivated by climate-change concerns. While this move is unlikely to disrupt current LNG supplies to Europe in the short term, it may influence global market dynamics in the future.
Trump’s energy policy fuelling European vulnerability
Trump’s environmental stance has always been clear. Known for his “drill, baby, drill” approach, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement in 2017 and is expected to double down on expanding LNG exports. His nomination of Chris Wright, a staunch advocate of oil and gas production, as the next Secretary of Energy signals this direction.
Europe, meanwhile, remains heavily reliant on US gas supplies. In the first half of 2024, 18.7 per cent of Europe’s gas imports came from Russia, with the rest supplied by Algeria, Qatar and Norway. Alternatives like Canada’s LNG exports are limited, as West Coast terminals are better suited for Asian markets. As a result, Trump’s policies will likely deepen Europe’s dependence on US LNG, especially with new infrastructure investments in Three Seas Initiative countries.
This dependency brings both opportunities and risks. While cutting Russian gas supplies strengthens Europe’s energy security, reliance on American gas turns it into a leverage point for Trump. His proposed tariff hikes on LNG could transform US energy supplies into a bargaining tool to extract trade concessions from European nations.
At the same time, Trump’s trade war with China adds another layer of uncertainty. With his threat to impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese imports, Europe could find itself caught in the middle. Should Trump reduce US investments in the Three Seas Initiative, Central and Eastern Europe may seek financial support from China.
This prospect raises alarm in Washington, as early 3SI development briefly considered collaboration with Chinese funds. Strengthening ties with China would undermine US influence in Europe, leaving the Three Seas Initiative’s future as a battleground for competing global powers.
Trump bolstering US influence in Central Europe
Despite his “America first” rhetoric, Trump has never been an isolationist. His focus on advancing US interests abroad was evident in his enthusiastic support for the Three Seas Initiative (3SI). In 2017, he personally attended the 3SI summit in Poland, and by 2020, his administration pledged one billion US dollars to its projects, driven by a desire to expand US markets in a region historically overlooked by western powers.
Trump’s first term saw frequent clashes with Western Europe, particularly Germany, over issues like NATO financing. These tensions paved the way for closer ties with Central and Eastern Europe, where nations welcomed US involvement in the 3SI. With the 2025 German elections on the horizon and growing divergences in US-Germany relations, Trump’s focus on 3SI countries may deepen further.
Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party has been a key ally in Trump’s support for 3SI. The PiS-led government, which invited US troops to be based in Poland outside NATO protocols, shares Trump’s scepticism of multilateralism. This partnership underscores Poland’s strategic importance in Trump’s regional agenda.
However, Trump’s engagement with 3SI comes with risks. While his support could boost regional cooperation, his aversion to EU institutions and preference for bilateral deals could fragment European unity. By leveraging US LNG exports as a pressure tool, Trump may deepen Europe’s dependency on American energy, compromising its autonomy.
Trump’s transactional approach also leaves the region vulnerable to external influences like China. If US investments in 3SI falter, Central Europe could turn to Chinese financial support, raising concerns about Beijing’s growing foothold in the region. Whether Trump’s policies will solidify US dominance or lead to greater divisions in Europe remains an open question.
Mariia Didkovska is a project coordinator at the Kyiv-based Institute of American Studies.
Please support New Eastern Europe’s crowdfunding campaign. Donate by clicking on the button below.
Central and Eastern Europe, Donald Trump, Three Seas Initiative, US foreign policy
Source link : http://www.bing.com/news/apiclick.aspx?ref=FexRss&aid=&tid=6790fae89b6e450f8151fe46a4a1ed35&url=https%3A%2F%2Fneweasterneurope.eu%2F2025%2F01%2F22%2Fthe-three-seas-initiative-in-europe-facing-trumps-return-a-calm-or-a-storm%2F&c=9279911503263106740&mkt=de-de
Author :
Publish date : 2025-01-22 04:55:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.